The Sports Bookie Blog

ML Baseball Inverted Indicator

by SCOTT SPREITZER

One of the best indicators for changes in fortune in major league baseball is a team’s won-lost record in one-run games. Results in these virtual coin flips are greatly influenced by luck. Studies have shown that for years, even though TV announcers are always saying stuff like: 

* Certain teams “know” how to win close games
* Clutch ability determines who wins close games
* Bullpen quality determines who wins close games
* Champions find a way to win the close ones 

There’s a smidgen of truth to all of those, but that smidgen has been blown way out of proportion over the years because players and former players don’t acknowledge how much luck is really involved. Here are quick rebuttals to those four explanations:

* If certain teams “knew” how to win close games, they would do it every year. NOBODY wins an inordinate percentage of close games over large samples.

* If clutch ability determined who won close games, then the same teams would be winning them all the time. That doesn’t happen when you study samples of a few hundred games and more.

* Bullpens blow hot and cold just like the rest of baseball. It is true that a bullpen with a great ERA is likely to have a great record in close games. Nobody’s mastered yet how to always have a great bullpen!

* What separates champions from everyone else is the ability to win blowouts, not the ability to win close games. This has always been true in all sports. Champions will be slightly better than average in close games, but WAY better than average in blowouts. If you don’t believe me, look it up in any sport over its full history.

What that leaves us with is this:

MLB teams who currently have great records in one-run games are catching some breaks, and are about to fall back to earth. MLB teams who currently have bad records in one run games are suffering from bad luck, and have better win potential in the future than you realize.

Let’s look at some examples. Posted records were accurate heading into this past weekend.

BEST ONE-RUN TEAMS
Arizona: 17-8
LA Dodgers: 16-7
Boston: 11-6

These three teams have had their won-lost records most influenced by good fortune in close games of the 30 major league entries. Don’t get me wrong, they’re all good teams. But, they’re not quite as good as you’re thinking. All three are likely to be overpriced in terms of their true win potential in the next several weeks. Your newspaper standings are overstating their excellence, as are the TV announcers singing their praises.

Right now we’ve got a tight three-team race in the NL West. Arizona and Los Angeles have been catching breaks in close games, while the San Diego Padres haven’t (11-14 heading into the weekend). Here’s what the standings would look like if only decisions of two-runs or more were counted:

NON-NAILBITER RECORDS (thru last Friday)
San Diego 27-14
LA Dodgers: 22-21
Arizona : 21-22

Changes your perspective just a bit doesn’t it? The Dodgers and Diamondbacks are likely to fall back to earth a bit. The math says San Diego is the clear class of the division when that happens.

Let’s go to the other end of the spectrum and look at the worst one-run teams this year.

WORST ONE-RUN TEAMS
Baltimore: 6-15
Chicago Cubs: 6-13
NY Yankees: 4-10
Philadelphia: 4-10

Three teams jump out at me. The Cubs, Yankees, and Phillies are all squads who were hoping to contend for divisional championships this year. If not for one-run games, all would be doing that right now!

*The Yankees are 29-22 in non-nailbiters, which is just a few games behind what Boston is doing when you throw out their strong one-run record (31-18). The main reason we don’t have a tighter pennant race right now between the superpowers is because the Yanks have struggled in close games. There’s still plenty of time for them to turn it around and make a run at the top.

*The Cubs are 25-20 in games with bigger final margins, which is better percentage-wise than the 26-23 record posted by first place Milwaukee in that category. The Cubs WOULD be a first-place team if not for bad luck in close games.

*The Phillies are 31-22 once you throw out the nailbiter record. That’s better than the Yankees! It’s also better than the NY Mets, who are 29-24 in that category. The Phils would also be a first place team in their division if they had caught more breaks in close games.

This is why I pay so much attention to this statistic. Once you know how to handle it, you get a much better sense of how teams really stand in their divisions, and what’s likely to happen in the next several weeks when things start to regress to the mean.

History has made it clear that teams typically move back toward .500 in this stat after an abnormal stretch. Be sure you take that into account when trying to pick your daily winners!

RELATED LINK :
You can read more from Scott at PicksOnline.com

Add comment June 21st, 2007

BASEBALL’S HOME/ROAD DISPARITIES

By Jim Feist.

Baseball is unique in that every ballpark is different in its size and field configurations. This isn’t true in any of the other sports. A football field is always 100 yards long, and both college and pro basketball courts are the same length, the only difference being the three-point line. Baseball is very different, with several small, hitter-friendly parks like Jacobs Field, Fenway Park, Coors Field, the Metrodome, Tropicana Field, the Ball Park in Arlington, and small parks in Philadelphia, Milwaukee, Houston and Cincinnati.

There are several parks with expansive outfields that are tough to hit home runs in, perfect for pitchers, such as Shea Stadium, Safeco in Seattle, Dodger Stadium, plus parks in Oakland, Detroit and San Diego. Smart organizations will construct teams around the strengths and weaknesses of their park. For instance, the Mariners and A’s have huge outfields and know the importance of speedy outfielders (Ichiro and Mark Kotsay).

Oakland’s offense has struggled, but the pitching has been dominant in their huge park, tops in ERA in the AL. That combination is why the A’s started 40-20 under the total. There is very little foul ground around first base in Fenway Park in Boston, as well as a short left field because of the Green Monster. Historically, the Red Sox haven’t paid much attention to having good defensive players at first and left field, preferring to go with strong offensive players, though that’s not the case the last few years.

The thinking was that they could get away with it for 81 home games, though on the road those weaknesses can reveal themselves, which is one reason the Red Sox are usually much stronger at home than on the road. On the way to winning the World Series in 2004, Boston was a respectable 43-38 on the road, but a sizzling 55-26 at Fenway! Last season was more of the same, with a 38-43 road record, but 48-33 at Fenway.

Strong all-around defensive and pitching teams can help diminish significant home/road differences. The biggest surprise in the American League last season was the Tigers, but it’s no surprise to find they have been constructed around pitching and defense. They are fifth in the AL in fielding. Only injuries to the bullpen have hurt the overall staff ERA, but this starting staff is still solid, as evidenced by Justin Verlander’s no hitter last week. This balanced team won 51 games both home and away last season, and in 2007 they again have a winning record at home and on the road.

The Orioles started with a winning home mark, yet started just 13-21 away from Camden Yards. The Indians and the Angels have been roughly .500 on the road, but sensational at home. Cleveland started 21-8 at Jacobs Field, while the Angels started 24-9 in Anaheim.

In the National League, the first-place Brewers have been a Jekyl-and-Hyde team, starting 22-11 at home, but with a losing road mark. The Padres have been one of the best examples ever since Petco Park opened, the toughest place to hit in baseball. San Diego has built its team around pitching and speed in the outfield, while the offense consistently ranks near the bottom in most offensive categories because of the park.

This season San Diego is playing .500 ball on the road, but their NL, scratch-out-a-run here and there style at home works to the tune of winning 20 of their first 32 home contests. They also started 19-11 under the total at home.

Finally there are the Rangers, who aren’t doing much right in what is already a lost season. Texas is last in pitching, second to last in ERA, and in the bottom five in hitting and on base percentage. They have been able to play close to .500 ball at home, a hitter-friendly park, but that poor defense and pitching is magnified away from home, where they started a miserable 9-24. Teams that can adjust and play well on the road can avoid slumps by upgrading their defense and pitching, a key to success during a 162-game marathon.

RELATED LINKS :
You can find a FREE sport betting pick by Jim most days on Jim’s free sports betting picks page on GoonersGuide.com

 

Add comment June 21st, 2007