Early Season NCAA College Football Capping
by SCOTT SPREITZER
We’re now just a couple of days away from the start of the college football season. Here are some factors to remember when trying to pick winners in the season openers.
* The rules have changed in the offseason in a way that will favor the powerhouses and hurt lesser teams.
After a one year experiment that shrunk college games, the clock will run much more like it did back in 2005. Remember to put those points back on the board when outlining expectations for games in 2007. And remember that moving kickoffs back to the 30-yard line will help squads that have superior special teams.
* Remember that defenses are ahead of offenses at the beginning of a college season.
It didn’t used to be this dramatic. But in recent years we’ve seen several offenses really struggle early in the season. Defenses are much more aggressive than they used to be. If you’ve got a new quarterback, and a new running back in charge of picking up blitzes, your offense will have trouble in the first few games of the season. Last year’s timing changes exacerbated this element, leading to some very low scoring openers.
Remember when both Temple/Buffalo and Miami of Ohio/Northwestern were scoreless at the half on the first night of action? This year’s rules adjustments will just be giving some teams more plays to flounder!
* Make note of all the successful teams from last year that lost their starting quarterbacks.
There’s a slew of them! The worst thing you can do early in a season is to bet off last year’s expectations. Notre Dame is going to look like a whole different team this year. The teams that played in the BCS championship game, Florida and Ohio State, both have new quarterbacks. Strong finisher LSU does as well. Make the new quarterbacks earn your respect on the field before investing in them.
* Make note of all bowl caliber teams who return most of their offenses.
There are actually some nice second tier teams who are poised to hit the ground running in 2007 because they’ve got so many starters back. They’ll be able to handle blitzes out of the gate. And, they’ll be eager to make even more headlines this year than they did last season. The worst favorites to take will be last year’s powers that lost quarterbacks. The best favorites to take will be these second tier teams who return experience in the right spots. Heck, some of these guys will be dogs at least once early on. Be on the lookout for upset specials.
* Catch up on injuries and suspensions!
If you did a lot of research based on information in those newsstand publications that came out over the summer, you may not be aware that many top players have since been injured or suspended. The last thing you want to do is bet on a game, then find out when the telecast starts that your star running back isn’t going to play…and everyone BUT you seemed to know about it!
Check internet sites for reports on injuries and suspensions. Also be aware that a few returning starting quarterbacks lost their starting jobs within the last couple of weeks during late summer practices. You’d hate to bet against a team because the QB was bad last year, only to find out that a hotshot recruit is ready to turn the program around.
*Finally, remember that the oddsmakers are behind the eight-ball a bit because of the rules adjustments.
This year more than ever, you should be looking at the early games Thursday, Friday, and Saturday morning to get a feel for what football in 2007 is going to look like. Then you can take advantage in later starts Saturday afternoon and evening. Really, before last year, you could pretty much handicap September football with the same old basics.
The rules changes in 2006 caught Vegas napping. Unders were a STEAL for about a month because scoring dropped so much.
And, there were many great underdog plays because the games had shrunk. Favorites didn’t have time to express their superiority in a way that matched the spreads. The tinkering and re-tinkering with the clock and kickoffs throws a monkey wrench into the line making process. If you can read the tea leaves before they do, you’ll be able to take advantage for most of the month in my opinion. Start reading as soon as the games start!
I have to tell you, I can’t recall being THIS excited about the start of a college season. I’ve stayed on top of developments day-by-day all summer long. So, I’m ready to catch the oddsmakers napping once again!
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Add comment August 27th, 2007