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Stats, Lies and Statistics – Pro Football Talk

September 13th, 2007

PRO FOOTBALL STATS: READ BETWEEN THE LINES

BY JIM FEIST

We just completed the first week of the pro football season. Already there are mountains of stats and angles available for sports bettors to digest from this season and years past. Information certainly is a huge key when analyzing games and point spreads. Sometimes it can seem that there is too much info, but it’s essential to understand that stats are only a starting point. They don’t always tell the whole story. In fact, stats can sometimes lie.

Sure, it’s important to ask such questions as, “How many yards passing per game does this team get? How big is this offensive line compared to the opponent? Is a great quarterback going up against a team with slow defensive backs? What’s their home record the last five years, straight up and against the spread?” However, it’s important to learn when to look beyond stats. For example, here are some stats from the 2006 NFL season:

*The Rams were 10th in pass defense.
*The Falcons were No. 9 in total offense.
*The Bengals were 18th in rush defense.
*The Vikings were No. 10 in total defense.
*The Saints ranked 28th in rushing offense.
*The Bills were No. 16 in pass defense.
*The Browns had the No. 13 pass defense.
*The Chiefs were No. 15 in total offense.

Now, all of those 2006 stats are true. However, they don’t tell the real story about a football team’s strengths, either.

For instance, the Rams had a statistically strong pass defense. However, their total defense was a poor 25th, because they couldn’t stop the run, which ranked last. Opponents rarely had to pass. St. Louis lacked run stuffers and allowed a whopping 5.2 yards per carry, easily the worst mark in the league. So while the pass defense gave the appearance of being strong, this was really a poor all-around defense.

The Falcons may have been No. 9 in total offense, but few looked at them as a strong offensive team. Atlanta was as one-dimensional as a team could be, ranking first in rushing and last in passing. This is important for handicappers because it was easy to find mismatches. Any team that was strong against the run could contain them. That makes it much easier for defensive coordinators to map out a game plan against them. A potent NFL offense isn’t one-dimensional.

The Saints may have ranked 28th overall in rushing offense, but that is deceptive. They had plenty of offensive talent and balance with RBs Deuce McAllister and rookie Reggie Bush. No one wanted to face them as the Saints ranked No. 1 in total offense because of a devastating passing game and spread attack.

The 2006 Chiefs may have ranked 15th in total offense, but this was not a very strong offensive team. Like Atlanta, they were one-dimensional, running all the time behind workhorse RB Larry Johnson. Even worse was their lack of QB play and imagination, something that was maddeningly clear in the playoffs, when they went out quickly to the Colts.

Back in 2004 and 2005 the Steelers ranked 28th and 24th in passing offense, yet those “poor” stats are deceptive. The Steelers are primarily a power-running team, and highly successful at it, getting out in front early and then chewing up the clock. It worked often, too, during a 15-1 regular season in 2004 and winning the Super Bowl in 2005. They didn’t need to pass a lot, although when were forced to pass, they were able to move the ball through the air with QB Ben Roethlisberger and terrific wide receivers, which was the case during their playoff run. The stats may suggest a poor passing team, but the reality was quite different.

Last season Cleveland was No. 13 against the pass, but anyone watching the Browns saw a very poor defense. They were 25th against the run, so teams could wear them down on the ground, making the passing game just as effective. The Browns allowed 238 points, one of the poorest marks in the league.

The Vikings had the opposite problem defensively. They were No. 10 in total defense, but that was deceptive. Their run defense was sensational, No. 1 overall, so halfway through the season teams gave up on the run, spread the field and attacked their weak secondary. After a 4-2 SU, 5-1 ATS start, the Vikings faced the Patriots on Monday night. The Pats didn’t even bother to run, for the most part, spreading the field and passed their way to a 31-7 rout. Minnesota went 2-8 SU/ATS from that game on as teams exploited that weak pass ‘D’.

So remember – successful handicappers dig deep and weigh all the strengths and weaknesses before heading to the betting window.

You can read more from Jim Feist and read his football thoughts here :

 

Entry Filed under: NFL Football,Sports Betting