The Sports Bookie Blog

As the Premiership season progresses, football bettors might benefit from reassessing their approach to gambling on the English top flight. In recent seasons Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool and Man Utd (‘the big four’) have widened the gap between themselves and the rest of the league as their financial strength has allowed them to consolidate their power, particularly at home.

Asian Handicapping is the natural antidote for the increasingly prevalence of one-sided football contests (for example a string of home game wins). Asian Handicaps level the playing field via a hypothetical goal bias, giving bettors the opportunity of backing Arsenal at better than even money at home to newly promoted Derby for example.

Asian Handicaps Explained
An Asian Handicap is a method of betting on soccer that eliminates the possibility of losing if a game ends in a draw after 90 minutes. Teams are ‘handicapped’ to offset any perceived difference in abilities, using a spread based on goal superiority which eliminates the tie.

There are three basic types of Asian Handicaps:

Level Handicap
Where there is no perceived difference in abilities between Team A and Team B, no handicap bias is assigned, and both start off (0) also known as pk, pick’em or scratch. To win a bet on either team, all the bettor must do is identify the team which scores more goals than their opponent; all bets are refunded on the tie.

Single Handicap
Where there is a perceived difference in abilities between Team A and Team B, the superior team will be given an appropriate goal handicap to level the playing field for betting purposes i.e. -0.5 goal, -1 goal, -1.5 goals etc.

For example, if you bet on Team A with a handicap of -1 goal, they must win by more than one goal to cover their handicap and for you to win your bet. If they only win by a goal, the result with the handicap applied is a draw for betting purposes, so your bet is refunded. If Team B draw or win, you will lose your bet on Team A.

Double or Split Handicap
Where the difference in two teams’ abilities is slight, split ball Asian Handicaps may be used splitting the stake into two separate bets. For example Team A might be offered (pk & -0.5). If you bet on Team A and they lose, you will lose both bets as they did not cover either handicap. If the match ends in a draw, half of your stake at (pk) will be refunded, and the other half at (-0.5) will lose. If Team A wins, both handicaps will be covered so both bets win.

KEY POINT: If you’re stuck in the past slavishly following three-way fixed odds betting, the chances are you’re not getting a decent return on your outlay, and your gambling might benefit from the fresh perspective that Asian Handicapping provides.

–Hobbes

One of the leading Internet bookmakers, PinnacleSports.com, is a market leader in Asian Handicap betting with 1.96/1.96 style pricing. Find out more about PinnacleSports in a detailed sportsbook review - remember having active accounts and your betting bankroll distributed across multiple bookies is also key to maximising your profits from sports betting.

Compare the best odds live across top rated online sportsbooks here at BookieLabRat.com

Here’s where we think the smart money will be sitting on this week’s Euro 2008 Qualifiers:

ENGLAND vs ESTONIA  BBC1 Sat 15:00
England resume their Euro 2008 qualification campaign on Saturday with what should be a straight forward task at home to Estonia. The value is shocking on the outright bet (1.08 at Betsson looks the best for England with 29.00 for Estonia at PaddyPower)…so we suggest you have a stab at a handicap. For example: PinnacleSports, price England 1.790 (-2.5) with the visitors 2.170 (+2.5).

SCOTLAND vs UKRAINE  SSP1 Sat 15:00
Despite all the talk of the renaissance of Scottish football, without Paul Hartley, a pivotal figure in recent performances a draw is looking the bet value bet at 3.25 at BetFred. Best fixed odds prices for Scotland are currently 2.10 at Bet365 and for Ukraine 3.30 at Eurobet.  PinnacleSports price Scotland favourites on their Asian Handicap betting 1.775 (0/scratch & -0.5) with the Ukraine 2.190 (0/scratch & +0.5).

IRELAND vs GERMANY  SSP2 Sat 19:45
Though mathematically Ireland can still make it to the Euro 2008 finals – they must win their remaining fixtures, and hope the Czechs lose all theirs - Saturday’s game at Croke Park against Germany is really about pride, and building for the future. A 1-1 draw is looking promising but Asian Handicap specialists PinnacleSports make Germany favourites at 2.060 (-0.5) with Ireland 1.870 (+0.5).

Best fixed odds prices for Ireland are currently 4.10 at Eurobet and for Germany 2.00 at PaddyPower.

Well, Fred Done of BetFred bookmakers had picked a 2-0 result and was so confident that Man U would not go to 4 on the back of their string of 1-0 results (6 of the last 8 games) that his cashback offer was called FOURPLAY …and will see punters getting up to £100 cash back each on losing bets.

Fergie’s prediction comes true - and Man U find some form

Sir Alex Ferguson’s prediction that an end to Manchester United’s goal drought was imminent proved accurate as the Premier League champions overpowered Wigan to move to the top of the table for the first time this season.
 
Two goals from Cristiano Ronaldo and one each from Carlos Tevez and Wayne Rooney clinched a 4-0 win at Old Trafford and lifted the Red Devils one point ahead of Arsenal at the top, although their rivals have two games in hand and can reclaim top spot at home to Sunderland on Sunday.

It was United’s biggest win in the league since February and follows a run of hard-fought 1-0 wins.

In the only other game to be played on Saturday, Craig Gardener’s deflected first-half free-kick gave Aston Villa a 1-0 win over West Ham, who have now lost three on the trot in the league after an encouraging start to their campaign. The win lifted Villa up to fifth place in the table ahead of Sunday’s eight matches.

Manchester United have won 6 of the last 8 games 1-0. Unusual. Paddy Power has obviously thought about his latest cash back offer and decided Man U can’t manage 7 1-0 games on the trot!

WINNING UGLY! Man Utd v Wigan (Sat 12:45pm Live on SS1)

If Man U win the match 1-0, Paddy Power will refund all losing 1st/last goalscorer, correct score and scorecast single bets  on the game. Max Refund €300/£200 per customer.

PS: Paddy is paying out on last weekends’ game in which Aston Villa gave up their 1/2 time lead to Spurs to draw 4-4 !

Speaking of fours…

BetFred has come to the party this weekend with another cash back deal called GOOD FOURPLAY!

If you place a losing correct score bet on any Premier League game this weekend and a team scores 4 or more goals in that game BetFred will refund your win single stake. Max Refund £100 per customer.

This is in addition to Fred’s regular First Goalscorer and Scorecast cashback offers that are also running on all Premier League games.

Fred Done of BetFred.com fame has provided us with his picks for the weekend’s Premier League football. Given some of his past efforts we’re not so sure - but it is great to see the “passionate” Man U man feel able to pick both Arsenal and City this week as bankers!

Man Utd 1/7 v Wigan 12/1 (draw 5/1)
Fred’s Pick: This game comes on the back of a great home win for United in the Champions League, this will give them a great boost and will nail this game 2-0 at 11/2.

Aston Villa 1/1 v West Ham 9/4 (draw 9/4)
Fred’s Pick: Very tight game in store here so I thing the draw is the safest bet at 9/4. A great bet is the draw at half time at evens, this market has been kind to me in the past and I expect it to come up trumps again here.

Arsenal 1/6 v Sunderland 10/1 (draw 5/1)
Fred’s Pick: A comfortable 3-0 home victory is on the cards here at 6/1. You may want to put your mortgage on Arsenal -1 goal on the handicap at 4/7. Not the best price but nailed on.

Reading 8/11 v Derby 100/30 (draw 9/4)
Fred’s Pick: I expect Reading to take this game at 8/11. It will be a tricky affair but I feel 8/11 is a good price.

Blackburn 4/6 v Birmingham 7/2 (draw 12/5)
Fred’s Pick: Expect another home win at 4/6. Very hard to predict a first goalscorer so I won’t try, you won’t go far wrong with lumping on a home win.

Bolton 3/1 v Chelsea 4/5 (9/4 draw)
Fred’s Pick: A great price for Chelsea and one I will be all over, Drogba is suspended which is obviously a hindrance but Chelsea should have enough. My first goalscorer bet will be going Malouda at 6/1.

Liverpool 4/9 v Tottenham 11/2 (11/4 draw)
Fred’s Pick: Tottenham have always been a bogey team for Liverpool and I fancy the draw again at 11/4. 4/9 for Liverpool is outrageous but I’m happy to take a bigger draw price.

Man City 4/6 v Middlesbrough 7/2 (12/5 draw)
Fred’s Pick: I never thought I’d hear myself say this but Manchester City are my banker for the whole weekend at 4/6! Need I say anymore – nailed on!!

Newcastle 1/1 v Everton 9/4 (9/4 draw)
Fred’s Pick: This will be a tight and compact game with few chances. A draw may be the best bet at 9/4. 

Check out the latest independent sportsbook review of BetFred.com on site at BookieLabRat.com.

Football news from Gamebookers.com Check out the latest independent review of Gamebookers (a popular European sportsbook) online at BookieLabRat.com.
Arsenal’s strong start to the season has surprised many but Robin van Persie insists he saw it coming. And the Dutch forward sees no reason why Arsene Wenger’s young squad cannot build on their nine-match winning run to return to the top of the English game.

“At the start of the season I said we will surprise - and everyone was laughing,” the 24-year-old said. “Now 12 games into the season, everyone says, ‘Ooh, look at Arsenal, they are a good team’. This I knew before and my mind has not changed. “I started training early this season with Theo (Walcott) and after, when the rest of the lads came back in, I saw a great togetherness and belief and big quality. This is what I saw day in, day out. “I can understand the views of the fans and the press because they are not there every day - but I am and I saw this from early on.”

Van Persie, whose form and partnership with Emmanuel Adebayor has been crucial to Arsenal’s comfortable transition to life without Thierry Henry, added: “If we can stay together we can do amazing stuff in the future. We are progressing every week we play.

“If we just play our normal game, not many teams can stop us. We can win trophies. Why not? This is our aim. “If we win a trophy, we are a good team. If we miss it, we are not a bad team. We will just have missed it.”

Van Persie’s winner at Steau Bucharest in midweek put Arsenal in pole position in their Champions League group and Wenger’s men sit top of the Premier League. But their Brazilian midfielder Gilberto Silva, one of the few survivors from the squad that won the 2004 league title without losing a match, has warned that the new generation of Gunners cannot afford to allow the plaudits they are currently receiving to go to their heads.

“The more you win, the harder it is for you to play against other teams because everyone wants to beat you, but if they keep their minds right and everyone works hard for each other, there is a great chance,” he said.

Gilberto, who will celebrate his 31st birthday when Arsenal entertain Sunderland on Sunday, added: “It is important we keep our feet on the ground - if you do not keep your feet on the ground and your mind strong, it is very hard. “But I am not surprised how well this group is doing because I am with them every day on the training ground. The quality in which they do their job - the pass and movement, the goals - is fantastic. “If one of the players is not in condition to play, another replaces him and will do a great job.”

Here’s some game previews from Handicap betting specialist PinnacleSports.com. (Sorry, no US bettors). 

After only one round of fixtures, the 2008 Champions League betting market has changed dramatically, with Chelsea drifting like a barge in the wake of Jose Mourinho’s exit. The Blues’ game against Valencia at the Mestalla is a critical clash for the embattled Premier League club, but there are several mouth-watering matches across the eight groups, and one place to find up to 60% better Champions League odds – PinnacleSports.com.
Chelsea Must Dig Deep to Avoid Defeat at Mestalla

The clouds over Chelsea football darkened on the weekend as they failed to score in their fourth straight Premier League fixture. The Blues dropped to eighth in the division after the 0-0 draw at home to Fulham, which saw Didier Drogba red-carded, and John Terry substituted at half-time with a fractured cheek-bone, making him a real doubt here. Chelsea failed to beat Norwegian minnows, Rosenborg, at home on match-day one, so will be desperate to avoid dropping more points. On the back of their dismal form, and the inability of new coach, Avram Grant, to steady the ship, the Londoners must travel to Valencia for this tough Champions League clash.

It was at the Mestalla in last season’s quarter-finals that Chelsea showed all their grit and determination - characteristic under Mouriho - to turn a 1-0 half-time deficit into a 2-1 win at 90 minutes. Even optimistic Chelsea fans would hesitate to suggest they are capable of a similar performance under current conditions. Valencia, by comparison, are enjoying an excellent run. Since losing their opening La Liga game, they have strung together seven consecutive wins, including away to Schalke on match-day one of the Champions League. The attacking trio of Morientes, Villa and Silva have six league goals between them and will look to terrorise the unfamiliar Chelsea full-back pairing of Alex and Ben-Haim. Chelsea start as under-dogs with PinnacleSports.com 3.650 who make Valencia 2.20, and the draw 3.250.
Celtic Ready to Capitalise on Milan Crisis

Celtic coach, Gordon Strachan, should be upbeat ahead Wednesday night’s Champions League tie at Celtic Park. Though he will show the respect that the visit of reigning European Champions warrants, there simply couldn’t be a better time to play AC Milan. Since winning on the opening day of the Italian season, Carlo Ancellotti’s side have gone five Serie A games without a further victory or clean sheet. Hosting minnows Catania on Sunday at the San Siro, the Rossoneri only salvaged a 1-1 draw courtesy of a very dubious penalty shortly after half-time.

Worse still, Ancellotti lost defender, Kakha Kaladze, with a suspected groin strain. It is however, the ongoing injury to Ronaldo, that is hurting Milan most. In his absence too much goal-scoring responsibility falls on his compatriot, Kaka, who is showing the strain of that continuing burden. Scottish Champions, Celtic, warmed up with a 3-0 home win over Dundee United, that took them to the top of the SPL. The Bhoys will welcome the news that the chances of Shunsuke Nakamura’s involvement are steadily improving. Last season Nakamura was instrumental in getting the Hoops’ through the group stages for the first time in the club’s history, only to lose out in the last sixteen to Milan. The clubs shared a goalless draw in Scotland, and another at the San Siro, before Scottish hearts were broken in extra time by Kaka. On Wednesday night they have a perfect opportunity for revenge. Despite their form PinnacleSports.com make AC Milan favourites 2.180, with Celtic 3.670 and the draw 3.350.