Boxing: Oscar De La Hoya vs. Manny Pacquiao Preview
Here’s an interesting item from the team at Bodog Sportsbook if you’re planning a last minute “investment” on this great fight.
The era of big-money boxing matches isn’t over yet. Saturday night’s card at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas will be shown live on HBO pay-per-view, and it features one of the biggest attractions ever to set foot in the squared circle: Oscar De La Hoya. His 2007 fight against Floyd Mayweather drew a record 2.2 million PPV buys and $120 million in revenue. Even in today’s economy, De La Hoya’s bout with Manny Pacquiao is expected to be far and away the top money fight of 2008.
What people will see when they tune in remains something of a mystery – which only adds to the intrigue. This is simply not your typical matchup. De La Hoya is a light middleweight whose last two fights were at the 150-pound mark. Pacquiao, the Ring Magazine No. 1 pound-for-pound boxer in the world, is the WBC lightweight champion at 135 pounds, taking the strap from David Diaz in June after moving up from the super featherweight class. Saturday’s fight is a non-title bout at the welterweight limit of 147 pounds.
The size advantage De La Hoya is bringing into the ring is enough to make him the –175 favorite at press time (for current lines, visit sports.bodoglife.com). It’s also enough for many insiders – including De La Hoya’s former partner at Golden Boy Productions, noted Mexican boxer Marco Antonio Barrera – to compare this matchup to a circus sideshow. It might not be as obvious a mismatch as, say, Primo Carnera vs. Jack Sharkey, but the extra 20-30 pounds De La Hoya is carrying give him a major advantage in this fight.
Here is the tale of the tape for both men:
De La Hoya
Age: 35
Record: 39-5 (30 KO)
Stance: Orthodox
Height: 5-foot-10 1/2
Reach: 73 inches
Pacquiao
Age: 29
Record: 47-3-2 (35 KO)
Stance: Southpaw
Height: 5-foot-6 1/2
Reach: 67 inches
Barrera, a former opponent of Pacquiao’s, thinks that De La Hoya will win by knockout in just two rounds. The over/under for rounds in this 12-round fight is 9.5, with the over priced at –185. The props market has odds of –160 that the fight won’t go the distance. A second-round KO by the Golden Boy would pay out at 20-1; De La Hoya is pegged at 29-20 to win by KO, TKO or DQ and 8-5 to win by decision. Pacquiao is the +145 underdog to win and a –170 chalk to get knocked down or out. It’s easy to see why Pacquiao’s wife and mother were said to be against this fight taking place when negotiations began.
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Again, this is where the intrigue comes in. Pacquiao carries the respected mantle of best P4P fighter in the world. He’s a southpaw, and De La Hoya hasn’t fought a lefty since beating Hector “Macho” Camacho in 1997, back when the Golden Boy was The Ring’s P4P champion. Pacquiao has won his last eight fights in a row with an improved counterpunching repertoire to go along with his lightning-fast left-right combo. And for a smaller fighter, Pacquiao throws with a lot of power. He knocked out Erik Morales twice to avenge his last loss back in 2005, also at the MGM Grand – Pacquiao is staying at Mandalay Bay this week because of that result.
There’s also the question of desire. This is Pacquiao’s biggest payday ever, easily reaching eight figures. If he wins, they will back up the money truck again for a fight against Ricky Hatton. If he loses, it’s back to the lower weight classes and the lower paydays. De La Hoya is nearing the end of his career and has more money than he can count. He bought Ring Magazine last year. He has his own clothing line. There’s nothing left for De La Hoya to prove.
All of Pacquiao’s positive attributes aren’t enough to keep insiders from treating this fight like it’s a foregone conclusion. That kind of consensus usually comes with shorter odds than De La Hoya is getting in this fight. Mayweather was a –200 favorite against the Golden Boy last year. In comparison, Saturday’s favorite is a compelling value pick in a sport where underdogs take a literal beating.
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