Archive for February 20th, 2009

Basketball Betting Tutorial: Betting Outside the Top 25

Betting on Basketball tutorialHere’s another post from the team at popular US-friendly online sportsbook Bodog.

 

 

Training Camp: Betting Outside the Top 25

It’s the Year of the Upset – or is it?

It always causes a sensation when a big-name college basketball program gets its head handed to it on a platter by one of the lesser-known teams outside the Top 25. Case in point: Sunday’s 80-74 win by Boston College over then-No. 5 Duke (-7.5). Or even more amazing, the Eagles’ 85-78 defeat of then-No. 1 North Carolina (-23) back on Jan. 4 – in Chapel Hill, no less.

The culture of sharp handicapping, in college hoops and elsewhere, suggests that chalk is bad. But before we jump all over the AP sportswriters and college coaches who vote in the polls, let’s go back and take a look at the results. Here’s a week-by-week breakdown of how ranked teams have done against unranked teams this season in matchups with betting lines attached, using the ESPN/USA Today Poll (aka the coaches poll) as our guideline.

Non-conference

Week 1: 14-0 SU, 8-6 ATS
Week 2: 32-4 SU, 20-14-2 ATS
Week 3: 33-6 SU, 24-15 ATS
Week 4: 20-5 SU, 13-12 ATS
Week 5: 18-3 SU, 10-11 ATS
Week 6: 15-2 SU, 3-13-1 ATS
Week 7: 13-3 SU, 8-8 ATS

Conference

Week 8: 25-9 SU, 19-15 ATS
Week 9: 30-5 SU, 18-16-1 ATS
Week 10: 24-6 SU, 17-13 ATS
Week 11: 21-7 SU, 14-13-1 ATS
Week 12: 23-8 SU, 17-13-1 ATS
Week 13: 27-11 SU, 18-19-1 ATS
Week 14: 27-10 SU, 20-17 ATS

These numbers are anathema to the idea of fading the ranked teams as a whole. It is entirely possible to be undervalued and in the rankings at the same time – consider the No. 15 Kansas Jayhawks, who are contending once again for the Big 12 title at 20-5 SU and a very healthy 14-5 ATS. But Kansas is also one of only four teams in the coaches poll who are also in the Top 20 of the ATS rankings – the others are No. 4 Pittsburgh (13-6-1 ATS), No. 6 Memphis (16-8 ATS) and No. 11 Arizona State (14-7 ATS).

The key to betting on all those other lucrative unranked teams is to pick and choose your spots. You’ll notice the huge numbers the ranked clubs pulled in early, especially during the first three weeks at 52-35-2 ATS. This was during the cupcake portion of the non-conference schedule, when the big boys usually have no problem covering giant spreads against tiny programs that are happy to get humiliated in exchange for a wad of cash. The closer you get to the end of the non-con schedule, the tougher the matchups get and the more likely someone’s going to sneak away with a payday.

Once you get into conference action, the number of upsets goes up considerably – although few of these matchups involve those lucrative ATS teams from the mid-majors and lower. Ranked teams have still been profitable during this part of the season, but by being selective and supporting the clubs who can’t seem to get the respect or votes they deserve from the coaches, you can make some money. The Ohio State Buckeyes, for example, are 7-5 SU and 8-4 ATS in Big Ten action with upsets over Michigan (-5.5) and visiting Purdue (-2).

The trick with finding these teams is that the coaches usually don’t ignore winners for very long. Which makes OSU’s case particularly strange – the Buckeyes also pulled off non-con upsets of Miami-Florida (-8) and Notre Dame (-5) at the Hartford Hall of Fame Showcase. But it’s not surprising that there’s been value in both Ohio State and Kansas this year; these are two recent NCAA Tournament finalists that had their lineups gutted by the NBA Draft and were left for dead. Never forget that when betting on college hoops, you’re betting for or against coaches like Thad Matta and Bill Self. Those are definitely two winners.

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