The Sports Bookie Blog

World Cup 2010 South Africa

July 23rd, 2009

Everybody gets to play.

That’s the spirit of the 2010 World Cup, which actually started back in 2007 with a record 204 teams. They’ll be whittled down by November to the 32 countries who will participate in South Africa – assuming the tournament doesn’t have to be relocated because of strike activity or any of the other logistical challenges facing the organizers. Last month’s Confederations Cup appeared to go off without a hitch; FIFA president Sepp Blatter estimates the hosts are “75 percent” of the way there.

The next batch of qualifying games comes up on Aug. 12. That gives us a window of opportunity to look at the futures market and get some value handicapping the outright winner. We already know the identities of six of the teams, including the host nation. Here they are with their odds at top US-OK online sportsbook, Bodog as we went to press:

Holland 12-1
South Africa 80-1
Australia 100-1
Japan 150-1
South Korea 250-1
North Korea 500-1

South Africa were officially joined last month by the Netherlands (the winners of UEFA Group 9) and four members of the Asian Football Confederation – not nearly the same hotbed of soccer as Europe and South America. The North Koreans (officially “Korea DPR” for this event) are making their first appearance in the World Cup since 1966, when they upset Italy 1-0 and made it all the way to the quarterfinals. They punched their ticket for 2010 by finishing second to South Korea in a group of six AFC qualifiers.

It would be a monumental upset for either of the Koreas to get very far next year. Soccer at the international level is dominated by an Elite Eight, Holland among them:

Spain 9-2
Brazil 5-1
Argentina 6-1
England 15-2
Germany 11-1
Italy 11-1
Holland 12-1
France 18-1

Only one country from outside this group has ever won the World Cup, and that was Uruguay in 1930 and 1950. They’re no longer a competitive threat at this level and are priced accordingly at 100-1. But that’s still two more World Cups than the tournament favorites have ever won. After decades of international frustration, Spain is at the top of the soccer world after putting together a 35-match undefeated streak, encompassing their breakthrough victory at Euro 2008.

Brazil is the only other national team ever to go 35 games without a loss. They’re currently on an eight-match winning run and haven’t lost in 15 appearances dating back to last June. That streak, however, nearly came to a grinding halt at the aforementioned Confederations Cup, where the United States went up 2-0 in the championship match before losing 3-2.

The Brazilians have experienced some turbulence with coach Dunga, the former star midfielder who took over the Seleção in 2006. Locals haven’t been happy with the way Dunga has built his team on discipline rather than starpower, but they can’t argue with success – Brazil look a lot now like the World Cup squad Dunga captained to victory in 1994. They’re on top of the CONMEBOL qualifier standings and virtually assured of a trip to South Africa.

The biggest question from the Confederations Cup is whether or not the United States team can truly hold its own against the titans of this sport. They were the ones who put an end to Spain’s undefeated record with a 2-0 win in the semifinals. And yet Team USA is priced at 40-1 to win its first-ever World Cup, behind Russia (28-1) and the Ivory Coast (33-1).

There is generally value to be found fading the global betting public when it comes to American soccer; the MLS has a poor international profile, but many of the best players from the States are club professionals in Europe, like goalkeeper Tim Howard from Everton in the English Premiership. When they come back to play for their home country, they come back to a program with the brainpower and the sponsorship dollars to help them succeed.

Next up for Team USA is Thursday’s CONCACAF Gold Cup semifinal match at Soldier Field with Honduras, No. 39 in FIFA’s world rankings and +400 underdogs in Chicago. The Americans are pegged at -160, with the draw at +250. Team USA beat Honduras 2-0 earlier this month at RFK Stadium during the Gold Cup group stage. In June, it was a 2-1 victory for the States during World Cup qualifying, also at Soldier Field. Game time for Thursday is 7:00 p.m. Eastern.

Entry Filed under: European Football,Sports Betting,Sports News & Results