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NFL Pre Pre-Season Run-up

July 28th, 2009

You’ve been waiting for this for months. The 2009 NFL season is only two weeks away – all right, the NFL preseason. But it’s still football, by far the most popular betting sport in North America, and the NFL is our bread and butter at Bodog Sports.

There’s no such thing as an offseason when it comes to business. Important players have changed hands, others were added at the 2009 NFL Draft, and we’re once again left hanging about Brett Favre’s future. Here’s the skinny on what’s been going down.

Favre Watch, Day 181 

It’s been widely assumed since Favre retired from the New York Jets on Feb. 11 that he’d be back in the NFL for 2009, and playing for the Minnesota Vikings. A lot is riding on this decision; even at age 39, Favre put up useful numbers (22 TDs, 22 INTs, 81.0 passer rating) for the Jets and nearly got them into the playoffs. Incumbent starter Tarvaris Jackson has a career passer rating of 76.5 in parts of three seasons with the Vikings. The difference between the two is big enough to keep Minnesota’s over/under for wins off the board for now. 

Orton Hears a Who

The Jets are one of 11 teams to go into the 2009 NFL season with new full-time head coaches: 

The Jets are one of 11 teams to go into the 2009 NFL season with new full-time head coaches: Cleveland Browns: Eric Mangini replaces Romeo Crennel
Denver Broncos: Josh McDaniels replaces Mike Shanahan
Detroit Lions: Jim Schwartz replaces Rod Marinelli
Kansas City Chiefs: Todd Haley replaces Herm Edwards
Indianapolis Colts: Jim Caldwell replaces Tony Dungy
New York Jets: Rex Ryan replaces Mangini
Oakland Raiders: Tom Cable replaces Lane Kiffin
St. Louis Rams: Steve Spagnuolo replaces interim coach Jim Haslett
San Francisco 49ers: Mike Singletary replaces Mike Nolan
Seattle Seahawks: Jim L. Mora replaces Mike Holmgren
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Raheem Morris replaces Jon Gruden

Dungy and Holmgren have earned their retirements. Everybody else got the pink slip. All these coaching changes should make the NFL a more volatile commodity for bettors this year – and the most volatile situation is in Denver, where the new Broncos front office got into a feud with QB Jay Cutler (25 TDs, 18 INTs, 86.0 passer rating) and ended up trading him to the Chicago Bears for QB Kyle Orton. (18 TDs, 12 INTs, 79.6 passer rating). That’s a downgrade for the Broncos, but Orton is an undervalued commodity because of his “goofy” personality off the field.

Not Quite Free Michael Vick

If anyone else needs a quarterback, Michael Vick wants to play, but he won’t be available until Week 6. That’s according to league commish Roger Goodell’s ruling on Monday to conditionally reinstate Vick after 18 months in prison for dogfighting-related crimes. Handicappers will want to pay extra attention to this story for two reasons. One, Vick would actually be able to participate in workouts and the final two preseason games, should anyone sign him. There will be betting lines for those games, and Vick figures to need a lot of playing time to get back into game shape. Two, Vick’s ongoing suspension (spun by Goodell as a chance to make a “transition”) is being labeled as harsh in the press and could be lifted upon further review. 

If anyone else needs a quarterback, Michael Vick wants to play, but he won’t be available until Week 6. That’s according to league commish Roger Goodell’s ruling on Monday to conditionally reinstate Vick after 18 months in prison for dogfighting-related crimes. Handicappers will want to pay extra attention to this story for two reasons. One, Vick would actually be able to participate in workouts and the final two preseason games, should anyone sign him. There will be betting lines for those games, and Vick figures to need a lot of playing time to get back into game shape. Two, Vick’s ongoing suspension (spun by Goodell as a chance to make a “transition”) is being labeled as harsh in the press and could be lifted upon further review.

Drafting Table

Here are the five draft picks most likely to make an immediate impact in their rookie campaigns. 

Here are the five draft picks most likely to make an immediate impact in their rookie campaigns. 1. Jason Smith, St. Louis Rams: Smith will slide in at left tackle and give QB Marc Bulger (38 sacks) the blindside protection he sorely needs.

2. Brian Orakpo, Washington Redskins: Orakpo can play linebacker or end, and when he’s on the line, the former Longhorn gets to play alongside premium tackle Albert Haynesworth.

3. Robert Ayers, Denver Broncos: This was the second-worst defense in the league last year in terms of efficiency. Ayers offers instant relief on the line as new defensive co-ordinator Mike Nolan switches to the 3-4.

4. Percy Harvin, Minnesota Vikings: Whether it’s Favre, Jackson or Sage Rosenfels throwing the ball, Harvin is a dazzling skill player fulfilling a big need for the Vikings.

5. Rey Maualuga, Cincinnati Bengals: Maualuga is a pass-rushing linebacker with coverage skills and the opportunity to line up next to former USC Trojans teammate Keith Rivers.

Walk it off

Ayers won’t be making any difference for the Broncos until he agrees to sign and report to their training camp, which starts July 30. Both Ayers and fellow first-round pick Knowshon Moreno are holding out; Brandon Marshall will be there, but he’s clearly not happy with his situation in Denver. Or perhaps they just want to avoid the horrible injuries that can happen in camp. We leave you with these (non-heat stroke related) classics: 

Ayers won’t be making any difference for the Broncos until he agrees to sign and report to their training camp, which starts July 30. Both Ayers and fellow first-round pick Knowshon Moreno are holding out; Brandon Marshall will be there, but he’s clearly not happy with his situation in Denver. Or perhaps they just want to avoid the horrible injuries that can happen in camp. We leave you with these (non-heat stroke related) classics: 

1983: Rookie RB Doug Furnas injured in Broncos camp, becomes pro-wrestler instead after a year on injured reserve

1987: Green Bay Packers sophomore DB Elbert Watts tears up his knee in a scrimmage, never plays again

2004: WR David Boston’s knee buckles during a Miami Dolphins practice; career goes into tailspin

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Entry Filed under: NFL Football,Sports News & Results,US Football