Posts filed under 'MLB Baseball'
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July 9th, 2007
by SCOTT SPREITZER
One of the hidden keys for successfully handicapping major league baseball is having a knack for evaluating bullpens. Far too many Las Vegas wagerers focus only on newspaper standings and starting pitchers when making their selections. You can’t beat baseball that way. You’ve got to think about all nine innings, not just the first six or seven…thank you very much Sparky Anderson.
Building a good bullpen is much more difficult than most major league general managers realize. We’ve seen many stories in past years where teams spent big bucks on an ace reliever just to find out that he can’t get anybody out any more. On the other side of the coin, many teams have found some relative unknown who suddenly thrives in the closer role for pennies on the dollar. You just never know.
Last year Cincinnati traded Austin Kearns to Washington for some long relievers on the mistaken assumption that bottom of the roster guys in a pitcher’s park would help out a team in a hitter’s park. The Reds fancied themselves divisional contenders (which they were only because the NL Central was a horrible division), and they imagined that shoring up a weak bullpen would put them over the top. The trade didn’t have any positive impact. This season, the Reds currently rank 24th in the majors in bullpen ERA. And, they probably wouldn’t mind having Kearns back on their roster either. Dumb trade.
Even the statistical publishing industry has had troubles getting a fix on what works and what doesn’t. The only advice from those publications has been along the lines of “don’t throw money at the problem because you can probably solve it cheaply. Just keep trying people until something works”. That doesn’t give anyone confidence, does it?
I know several bettors who have lost their confidence because they keep getting victimized by bad bullpens. Nothing demoralizes dog players more than watching a lead disappear in the eighth or ninth inning. Many Las Vegas professionals focus on underdogs. Games like this are just a punch to the gut. Take a few too many of those, and you lose the taste for gambling. You know what? Those aren’t really bad beats. Good handicappers should know to avoid betting on teams with shaky bullpens!
Even though there’s some mystery when it comes to building a successful bullpen, it’s just not that hard to recognize when it’s finally in place. That’s all handicappers have to do! Now that we’re almost three months into the season, bullpen earned run averages by themselves give you a very good sense of where everyone stands in this key category.
I’ve rated the 2007 bullpens for you based on their staff ERA’s heading into this past weekend. This deep into the season, the numbers are very meaningful. Teams with low bullpen ERA’s have a cast of contributors who are all thriving in their roles. Teams with high ERA’s still haven’t figured things out yet, and will still be prone to meltdowns once the starting pitcher has left the game. I’ll run through the ratings for you, and offer up some quick strategy advice for each group.
BEST BULLPENS
San Diego, Boston, the LA Dodgers, Toronto, Texas, Minnesota, San Francisco, Milwaukee, Atlanta, and Seattle, all have bullpen ERA’s at 3.62 or lower this season. They represent the top third of the majors, and have established themselves as relatively trustworthy almost three months into the season.
There are some surprises on the list to be sure. The Texas bullpen has been the lone bright spot on a bad team. It’s the starting rotation that’s ruined the Ranger season. Toronto’s has been better than people realize too. Remember that Texas and Toronto pitch in the AL with the designated hitter, and play in strong divisions.
Strategies for this group:
*When two teams play each other, look to take the UNDER unless very bad starting pitchers are in the mix.
*When any of these teams is starting a quality pitcher, you can back him with confidence because the bullpen will be able to seal the deal on most occasions.
*Whenever these teams are playing games in pitcher’s parks, the tendencies toward success or Unders will be magnified because the bullpen will perform even better than their full season numbers. Play accordingly.
MIDDLE RELIEVERS
Seattle, the NY Mets, Arizona, the LA Angels, Washington, Cleveland, the NY Yankees, Oakland, the Chicago Cubs, Florida, St. Louis, Colorado, and Kansas City, all have ERA’s in the 3.60 to 4.34 range. That’s relatively generic. I’ve listed the teams from best to worst within this group, so Seattle and the Mets are close to being very good, while the bottom three are close to being bad. It’s best to just think of this grouping as “no harm no foul” in the big picture.
Strategies for this group:
*Focus on the offenses and the starting pitchers when making your side and total decisions. These bullpens aren’t doing much to influence results this year one way or the other. They’ll hold their share of leads. They’ll blow their share of saves. It all comes out in the wash.
*Pay attention to injuries with this group. If a team loses a key player, they could very easily fall down into the worst group that you’re about to study. If a star player comes back from a layoff, he could lift any of these teams up to the elite group.
*There’s no reason to shy away from quality starters on these teams out of fear for the bullpen. You’ll lose some heartbreakers. But, you’ll win some too.
WORST RELIEVERS
Clocking in at 4.86 or worse are Houston, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, Detroit, Baltimore, Tampa Bay, and the Chicago White Sox. It’s surprising to see Detroit on the list, as pitching was a strength during their AL championship run last year. This season, a fantastic offense has helped hide this developing weakness.
Strategies for this group:
*Look to take the OVER whenever teams in this group play each other, and almost any time that the teams are playing in good hitter’s parks. A few of these teams will be Over machines this summer in the warm weather.
*Be very careful laying big odds with a starting pitcher on any of these teams. He could throw a gem but still get victimized by a bad bullpen.
*If any of these teams is starting a poor pitcher, it’s a go against and/or an OVER situation. That poor starter will allow a bunch of runs, then the kerosene kids will come in and make it worse.
It’s very important that you incorporate bullpens into your handicapping approach. As long as you’re thinking about all nine innings of a game rather than just what the starting pitchers will do, you will be in position to grind out a steady profit. Remember that Las Vegas lines are based on public perceptions, and the public pays too little attention to bullpens.
RELATED LINK :
Scott is one of the top US sports handicappers online today – and you can read more of Scott’s editorials and betting picks here :
July 2nd, 2007
by DAVE COKIN
An overlooked aspect of baseball is defense, but it is an extremely important facet of the game. The old adage “being strong up the middle” is very significant, having a strong defensive catcher, shortstop and center fielder. Shortstops with above-average range can get to grounders and turn them into double plays. Shortstops that lack range won’t get to those balls, and what happens? They end up as singles, a big difference from a double play, especially if you’re the guy on the mound!
For instance, the Florida Marlins are the worst defensive team in baseball. Notice that the Marlins started 17-20 as a favorite, talk about a money-burner! You can examine their overall hitting stats, which are decent, but don’t overlook poor defense. Bad defense can mean more runs and in the right scenario: More singles instead of double plays, more unearned runs because of errors, and more games over the total.
It’s no surprise those same Marlins are 36-30 over the total, including 19-11 over at home. Over the weekend I had a play on a Marlins total with this in mind. In my analysis of the Florida/Kansas City game I wrote, “Everything sets up pretty well for a high scoring game here. The Marlins continues to hit the ball well and play lousy defense, which is always a plus when looking for an Over. And the Royals are suddenly bopping the ball, with rookie sensation Alex Gordon starting to finally figure things out after a couple of really rough months.
“Starting pitching is also a part of this call. Rookie Van Den Hurk has had a couple of nice outings but when he’s been off, it’s been really ugly. KC’s Jorge De La Rosa’s control problems have started resurfacing the last four starts and that’s a huge red flag for him. Add it all up and the prospects for a high scoring contest here are very strong. I’m on the Marlins and Royals to go Over the Total.”
The Marlins committed 3 more errors in the game, with combined 28 hits and 6 walks. It was over the total by the fifth inning as the Marlins eventually came back and won 9-8 (thanks to their bats, not their gloves).
A couple of other teams that have a brutal combination for overs are the Cincinnati Reds and the Texas Rangers: No pitching and bad defense. The Reds defense is ranked third-worst in the NL while the Rangers are second worst in the AL. In fact, the two teams met over the weekend and all three games sailed over the total with scores of 7-6, 8-4 and 11-4. Bring back the dead ball era to help these guys!
In fact, one of the games I released to my clients as an over, reasoning, “Bronson Arroyo continues to struggle, with his hits to innings pitched ratio simply not getting any better. As for Texas starter Kevin Millwood, he’s been about as bad as it gets for the most part. Two starting pitchers in shabby current form, and a day game in a ballpark that yields big numbers on a constant basis are the recipe for a very big offensive day. The first two games in this series have gone Over, and I see more the of the same here.”
When the dust had settled the teams had combined for 4 errors 20 hits and 15 runs. The Rangers pulled away with four runs in the ninth off one of the NL’s worst bullpens. The Reds had one of their three errors in the inning.
The Tigers look to be a scary team if they can get their pitching healthy, which is likely the case. That’s because the Tigers are tops in offense and third in team defense. Getting the bullpen healthy along with starter Kenny Rogers’ return, and Detroit could come close to having a deadly trifecta of hitting, pitching and defense. Hitting and pitching are the two most examined areas in baseball handicapping, but don’t ignore the subtleties, and importance, of defense.
RELATED LINK :
Dave Cokin is one of the top US sports handicappers online today – and you can read more of Dave’s editorials and betting picks here :
June 23rd, 2007
by SCOTT SPREITZER
One of the best indicators for changes in fortune in major league baseball is a team’s won-lost record in one-run games. Results in these virtual coin flips are greatly influenced by luck. Studies have shown that for years, even though TV announcers are always saying stuff like:
* Certain teams “know” how to win close games
* Clutch ability determines who wins close games
* Bullpen quality determines who wins close games
* Champions find a way to win the close ones
There’s a smidgen of truth to all of those, but that smidgen has been blown way out of proportion over the years because players and former players don’t acknowledge how much luck is really involved. Here are quick rebuttals to those four explanations:
* If certain teams “knew” how to win close games, they would do it every year. NOBODY wins an inordinate percentage of close games over large samples.
* If clutch ability determined who won close games, then the same teams would be winning them all the time. That doesn’t happen when you study samples of a few hundred games and more.
* Bullpens blow hot and cold just like the rest of baseball. It is true that a bullpen with a great ERA is likely to have a great record in close games. Nobody’s mastered yet how to always have a great bullpen!
* What separates champions from everyone else is the ability to win blowouts, not the ability to win close games. This has always been true in all sports. Champions will be slightly better than average in close games, but WAY better than average in blowouts. If you don’t believe me, look it up in any sport over its full history.
What that leaves us with is this:
MLB teams who currently have great records in one-run games are catching some breaks, and are about to fall back to earth. MLB teams who currently have bad records in one run games are suffering from bad luck, and have better win potential in the future than you realize.
Let’s look at some examples. Posted records were accurate heading into this past weekend.
BEST ONE-RUN TEAMS
Arizona: 17-8
LA Dodgers: 16-7
Boston: 11-6
These three teams have had their won-lost records most influenced by good fortune in close games of the 30 major league entries. Don’t get me wrong, they’re all good teams. But, they’re not quite as good as you’re thinking. All three are likely to be overpriced in terms of their true win potential in the next several weeks. Your newspaper standings are overstating their excellence, as are the TV announcers singing their praises.
Right now we’ve got a tight three-team race in the NL West. Arizona and Los Angeles have been catching breaks in close games, while the San Diego Padres haven’t (11-14 heading into the weekend). Here’s what the standings would look like if only decisions of two-runs or more were counted:
NON-NAILBITER RECORDS (thru last Friday)
San Diego 27-14
LA Dodgers: 22-21
Arizona : 21-22
Changes your perspective just a bit doesn’t it? The Dodgers and Diamondbacks are likely to fall back to earth a bit. The math says San Diego is the clear class of the division when that happens.
Let’s go to the other end of the spectrum and look at the worst one-run teams this year.
WORST ONE-RUN TEAMS
Baltimore: 6-15
Chicago Cubs: 6-13
NY Yankees: 4-10
Philadelphia: 4-10
Three teams jump out at me. The Cubs, Yankees, and Phillies are all squads who were hoping to contend for divisional championships this year. If not for one-run games, all would be doing that right now!
*The Yankees are 29-22 in non-nailbiters, which is just a few games behind what Boston is doing when you throw out their strong one-run record (31-18). The main reason we don’t have a tighter pennant race right now between the superpowers is because the Yanks have struggled in close games. There’s still plenty of time for them to turn it around and make a run at the top.
*The Cubs are 25-20 in games with bigger final margins, which is better percentage-wise than the 26-23 record posted by first place Milwaukee in that category. The Cubs WOULD be a first-place team if not for bad luck in close games.
*The Phillies are 31-22 once you throw out the nailbiter record. That’s better than the Yankees! It’s also better than the NY Mets, who are 29-24 in that category. The Phils would also be a first place team in their division if they had caught more breaks in close games.
This is why I pay so much attention to this statistic. Once you know how to handle it, you get a much better sense of how teams really stand in their divisions, and what’s likely to happen in the next several weeks when things start to regress to the mean.
History has made it clear that teams typically move back toward .500 in this stat after an abnormal stretch. Be sure you take that into account when trying to pick your daily winners!
RELATED LINK :
You can read more from Scott at PicksOnline.com
June 21st, 2007
By Jim Feist.
Baseball is unique in that every ballpark is different in its size and field configurations. This isn’t true in any of the other sports. A football field is always 100 yards long, and both college and pro basketball courts are the same length, the only difference being the three-point line. Baseball is very different, with several small, hitter-friendly parks like Jacobs Field, Fenway Park, Coors Field, the Metrodome, Tropicana Field, the Ball Park in Arlington, and small parks in Philadelphia, Milwaukee, Houston and Cincinnati.
There are several parks with expansive outfields that are tough to hit home runs in, perfect for pitchers, such as Shea Stadium, Safeco in Seattle, Dodger Stadium, plus parks in Oakland, Detroit and San Diego. Smart organizations will construct teams around the strengths and weaknesses of their park. For instance, the Mariners and A’s have huge outfields and know the importance of speedy outfielders (Ichiro and Mark Kotsay).
Oakland’s offense has struggled, but the pitching has been dominant in their huge park, tops in ERA in the AL. That combination is why the A’s started 40-20 under the total. There is very little foul ground around first base in Fenway Park in Boston, as well as a short left field because of the Green Monster. Historically, the Red Sox haven’t paid much attention to having good defensive players at first and left field, preferring to go with strong offensive players, though that’s not the case the last few years.
The thinking was that they could get away with it for 81 home games, though on the road those weaknesses can reveal themselves, which is one reason the Red Sox are usually much stronger at home than on the road. On the way to winning the World Series in 2004, Boston was a respectable 43-38 on the road, but a sizzling 55-26 at Fenway! Last season was more of the same, with a 38-43 road record, but 48-33 at Fenway.
Strong all-around defensive and pitching teams can help diminish significant home/road differences. The biggest surprise in the American League last season was the Tigers, but it’s no surprise to find they have been constructed around pitching and defense. They are fifth in the AL in fielding. Only injuries to the bullpen have hurt the overall staff ERA, but this starting staff is still solid, as evidenced by Justin Verlander’s no hitter last week. This balanced team won 51 games both home and away last season, and in 2007 they again have a winning record at home and on the road.
The Orioles started with a winning home mark, yet started just 13-21 away from Camden Yards. The Indians and the Angels have been roughly .500 on the road, but sensational at home. Cleveland started 21-8 at Jacobs Field, while the Angels started 24-9 in Anaheim.
In the National League, the first-place Brewers have been a Jekyl-and-Hyde team, starting 22-11 at home, but with a losing road mark. The Padres have been one of the best examples ever since Petco Park opened, the toughest place to hit in baseball. San Diego has built its team around pitching and speed in the outfield, while the offense consistently ranks near the bottom in most offensive categories because of the park.
This season San Diego is playing .500 ball on the road, but their NL, scratch-out-a-run here and there style at home works to the tune of winning 20 of their first 32 home contests. They also started 19-11 under the total at home.
Finally there are the Rangers, who aren’t doing much right in what is already a lost season. Texas is last in pitching, second to last in ERA, and in the bottom five in hitting and on base percentage. They have been able to play close to .500 ball at home, a hitter-friendly park, but that poor defense and pitching is magnified away from home, where they started a miserable 9-24. Teams that can adjust and play well on the road can avoid slumps by upgrading their defense and pitching, a key to success during a 162-game marathon.
RELATED LINKS :
You can find a FREE sport betting pick by Jim most days on Jim’s free sports betting picks page on GoonersGuide.com
June 21st, 2007
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