The Sports Bookie Blog

NFL: Preview of Week 15 Betting Action

December 11th, 2008

Handicappers have to wear many hats to do a good job: athlete, statistician, doctor, lawyer, critic. These days, a background in labor relations would be handy.

The NFL Players Association says the New York Giants violated the collective bargaining agreement when they suspended WR Plaxico Burress for the remainder of the season and docked him a week’s wages. The Giants were also supposed to pay Burress $1 million this week as part of his signing bonus. He inked a five-year extension this offseason totalling $35 million, but New York can reportedly recoup $23 million by cutting ties with Burress.

In this case, the union’s grievance won’t be heard until after the season – unlike the court injunction that blocked the suspensions of six players last week in the StarCaps scandal. That includes three members of the New Orleans Saints, who kick off our Top 3 NFL betting games for Week 15.

For current NFL lines, check out the Bodog Sportsbook.

New Orleans at Chicago

Soldier Field, Chicago
Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET, NFL Network
15% chance of rain/snow, 30 degrees, 15 mph winds
New Orleans: 7-6 SU, 9-4 ATS, Over 8-4-1
Chicago: 7-6 SU, 6-6-1 ATS, Under 8-5

The three Saints in question are RB Deuce McAllister, DE Charles Grant (on injured reserve) and DE Will Smith. McAllister was a non-factor in last week’s 24-21 win over Atlanta (+3); Smith was involved in six tackles as the Saints held Atlanta to 99 yards rushing. But Smith’s presence wasn’t enough to keep Matt Ryan from passing for 315 yards. The Saints are No. 25 in the league with 20 TD throws and 3,006 passing yards allowed on the season.

Fortunately for the Saints, Chicago’s offense isn’t tailored to take advantage. The Bears are No. 23 in the league with 5.7 yards per pass attempt; their offensive forte is Matt Forte, the rookie RB with 4.0 yards per carry and 10 of Chicago’s 34 TDs on the season. Devin Hester has yet to reach the end zone this year and has been taken off kick-return duty in favor of Danieal Manning. A Hester punt return TD was key to last year’s 33-25 win by the Bears (+1).

Pittsburgh at Baltimore

M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, Md.
Sunday, 4:15 p.m. ET, CBS
10% chance of rain, 40 degrees
Pittsburgh: 10-3 SU, 7-6 ATS, Over 7-6
Baltimore: 9-4 SU, 10-3 ATS, Over 8-4-1

The Steelers defense keeps saving the day. Pittsburgh scored two TDs in the final 2:04 to beat Dallas (+4) 20-13 last week, the final major coming on a Deshea Townsend interception return. Pittsburgh’s offense is tied with Baltimore’s near the bottom of the league at 4.8 yards per play – the winless Lions are next at 4.7 yards. But the Ravens are actually more efficient moving the ball. They’re No. 13 in the NFL with 248 first downs, while Pittsburgh languishes at No. 22 with 229.

The difference is power running. The Steelers have absorbed myriad injuries in the backfield, but none of their running options would be mistaken for a bruiser. Baltimore’s Le’Ron McClain, on the other hand, is a 260-pound fullback enjoying his first year as a feature ball-carrier. His relatively small 3.7 yards per carry disguises Baltimore’s efficiency in short-yardage situations – the Ravens are fourth in the league in this department, while the Steelers are No. 24.

NFL playoff odds in the Bodog Sportsbook.

N.Y. Giants at Dallas

Texas Stadium, Dallas
Sunday, 8:15 p.m. ET, NBC
10% chance of rain, 60 degrees, 10 mph winds
New York: 11-2 SU, 10-3 ATS, Over 7-5-1
Dallas: 8-5 SU, 6-7 ATS, Over 7-6

Perhaps Big Blue could use a dose of Plax after all. The Giants’ 7-0 SU and ATS streak ended with a thud last week against the Eagles (+6.5), who left the Meadowlands with a 20-14 victory. This was a near-total shutdown by the Philly defense. The Giants managed only 211 total yards, and there were 15 seconds left in the game before the offense finally scored. Domenik Hixon had three catches for 30 yards in Burress’ absence.

Philadelphia is fourth in the NFL in defense at 4.5 yards allowed per play, one spot better than New York at 4.8 yards. The Cowboys are mere percentage points behind the G-Men in that category; if you take out the three Brad Johnson games, Dallas looks a lot more competitive at 7-3 SU and 5-5 ATS. That includes Week 9, when the Giants cruised to a 35-14 win as 9.5-point home faves with Tony Romo and his broken pinkie finger on the sidelines. Dallas is 3-1 SU and 2-1-1 ATS against the Giants with Romo as the starter.

>>For more on Bodog Sport read the latest Bodog Sportsbook Review – or suss out how Bodog compares to all online sportsbooks we recommend for US-based bettors