The Sports Bookie Blog

In front of a crowd that sometimes looked as if it was a home game for the Steelers, the Jets hung tough to win their second game of the season.

The Jets defense had its best game — by far — by sacking Ben Roethlisberger seven times and holding Willie Parker to 52 yards on 21 carries.

New York came in ranked 30th overall on defense, and last against the run, but held Pittsburgh to just 112 yds rushing and 152 yds passing and only one touchdown.

The Jets went out to 10-0 early and were still ahead 13-7 by the half.

Pittsburgh slowly ground out a 16-13 lead via three Jeff Reed FGs and held that lead until the last 25 seconds of regualtion when Mike Nugent hit a 28 yd kick to force over time. 

OVERTIME 

After the Jets went three-and-out to open overtime, the Steelers did the same. Leon Washington took the punt 33 yards to the Pittsburgh 26 to put New York in scoring position immediately.

Jones ran three times for 6 yards and then Nugent booted his fourth field goal of the game and the New York Jets stormed the field and celebrated their first win in nearly two months.

PRO FOOTBALL STATS: READ BETWEEN THE LINES

BY JIM FEIST

We just completed the first week of the pro football season. Already there are mountains of stats and angles available for sports bettors to digest from this season and years past. Information certainly is a huge key when analyzing games and point spreads. Sometimes it can seem that there is too much info, but it’s essential to understand that stats are only a starting point. They don’t always tell the whole story. In fact, stats can sometimes lie.

Sure, it’s important to ask such questions as, “How many yards passing per game does this team get? How big is this offensive line compared to the opponent? Is a great quarterback going up against a team with slow defensive backs? What’s their home record the last five years, straight up and against the spread?” However, it’s important to learn when to look beyond stats. For example, here are some stats from the 2006 NFL season:

*The Rams were 10th in pass defense.
*The Falcons were No. 9 in total offense.
*The Bengals were 18th in rush defense.
*The Vikings were No. 10 in total defense.
*The Saints ranked 28th in rushing offense.
*The Bills were No. 16 in pass defense.
*The Browns had the No. 13 pass defense.
*The Chiefs were No. 15 in total offense.

Now, all of those 2006 stats are true. However, they don’t tell the real story about a football team’s strengths, either.

For instance, the Rams had a statistically strong pass defense. However, their total defense was a poor 25th, because they couldn’t stop the run, which ranked last. Opponents rarely had to pass. St. Louis lacked run stuffers and allowed a whopping 5.2 yards per carry, easily the worst mark in the league. So while the pass defense gave the appearance of being strong, this was really a poor all-around defense.

The Falcons may have been No. 9 in total offense, but few looked at them as a strong offensive team. Atlanta was as one-dimensional as a team could be, ranking first in rushing and last in passing. This is important for handicappers because it was easy to find mismatches. Any team that was strong against the run could contain them. That makes it much easier for defensive coordinators to map out a game plan against them. A potent NFL offense isn’t one-dimensional.

The Saints may have ranked 28th overall in rushing offense, but that is deceptive. They had plenty of offensive talent and balance with RBs Deuce McAllister and rookie Reggie Bush. No one wanted to face them as the Saints ranked No. 1 in total offense because of a devastating passing game and spread attack.

The 2006 Chiefs may have ranked 15th in total offense, but this was not a very strong offensive team. Like Atlanta, they were one-dimensional, running all the time behind workhorse RB Larry Johnson. Even worse was their lack of QB play and imagination, something that was maddeningly clear in the playoffs, when they went out quickly to the Colts.

Back in 2004 and 2005 the Steelers ranked 28th and 24th in passing offense, yet those “poor” stats are deceptive. The Steelers are primarily a power-running team, and highly successful at it, getting out in front early and then chewing up the clock. It worked often, too, during a 15-1 regular season in 2004 and winning the Super Bowl in 2005. They didn’t need to pass a lot, although when were forced to pass, they were able to move the ball through the air with QB Ben Roethlisberger and terrific wide receivers, which was the case during their playoff run. The stats may suggest a poor passing team, but the reality was quite different.

Last season Cleveland was No. 13 against the pass, but anyone watching the Browns saw a very poor defense. They were 25th against the run, so teams could wear them down on the ground, making the passing game just as effective. The Browns allowed 238 points, one of the poorest marks in the league.

The Vikings had the opposite problem defensively. They were No. 10 in total defense, but that was deceptive. Their run defense was sensational, No. 1 overall, so halfway through the season teams gave up on the run, spread the field and attacked their weak secondary. After a 4-2 SU, 5-1 ATS start, the Vikings faced the Patriots on Monday night. The Pats didn’t even bother to run, for the most part, spreading the field and passed their way to a 31-7 rout. Minnesota went 2-8 SU/ATS from that game on as teams exploited that weak pass ‘D’.

So remember - successful handicappers dig deep and weigh all the strengths and weaknesses before heading to the betting window.

You can read more from Jim Feist and read his football thoughts here :

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NFL Preseason Preview for Thurs./Friday.
By David Harrison

The second week of the NFL preseason begins on Thursday night when Miami takes on Kansas City. Four games are on tap on a busier Friday night, including Atlanta at Buffalo, Carolina at Philadelphia, Minnesota at the Jets and Tennessee at New England.

Here’s a quick rundown of all five games.

Thursday

Miami at Kansas City (-3)

Trent Green makes an early return to Kansas City this week, hoping to improve on the form he displayed in his Miami preseason debut last week. In the Dolphins’ 18-17 win over Jacksonville, Green was booed by the hometown fans after completing 6-of-15 passes for 60 yards and an interception. The usually fiery Dolphins’ defense will be tame Thursday night with Zach Thomas, Keith Traylor and Jason Taylor all expected to sit out.

The Chiefs are coming off a 16-12 loss to Cleveland in which the offense fizzled. Both Damon Huard and Brodie Croyle threw an interception in the loss, while the Chiefs’ running game flat-lined without Larry Johnson. With Johnson’s holdout still ongoing, he’ll be nowhere near Kansas City on Thursday, while tight end Tony Gonzalez will also likely be absent due to a lingering knee injury.

Friday

Atlanta at Buffalo (-3)

The Falcons’ preseason began with a thud last week as they were crushed by the Jets 31-16. Joey Harrington was 6-of-9 for 88 yards in limited duty, while Jerious Norwood displayed his blazing speed while rushing for 29 yards on eight carries with a touchdown. Norwood was hit by a stomach bug earlier in the week and may be unavailable on Friday.

The Bills pulled off a 13-10 win over New Orleans last week despite receiving very little production from their starting offense. Quarterback J.P. Losman connected on 4-of-6 passes for 20 yards, while Marshawn Lynch’s NFL debut was a short one, in which he rushed for three yards on only two carries.

Carolina at Philadelphia (-3)

The Panthers kicked off the preseason with a 24-21 win over the Giants. Jake Delhomme looked like his old self while completing 5-of-8 passes for 30 yards and a touchdown. DeAngelo Williams missed the opener with an ankle injury and is questionable for Friday night.

The Eagles were humbled by Baltimore 29-3 in their preseason opener without QB Donovan McNabb. Rookie Kevin Kolb completed 11-of-22 passes for 77 yards in the second half, but could not march the Eagles into the end zone. McNabb is listed as probable for Friday night and will likely see his first action of the preseason.

Minnesota at NY Jets (-4.5)

The Vikings also had troubles scoring in their preseason opener, which they lost to St. Louis 13-10. Rookie QB Adrian Peterson saw a fair share of action with 11 carries for 33 yards in the loss.

The Jets found their backup QB for Chad Pennington in a 31-16 win over Atlanta. Pennington skipped the game which gave Kellen Clemens the opportunity to pass for 174 yards and three touchdowns.

Tennessee at New England (-5.5)

Without Vince Young the Titans struggled in their opener, losing 14-6 to Washington. Young was serving a one-game suspension for breaking team rules and should be back in a limited capacity on Friday. Chris Henry looked good in his Titans’ debut, rushing for 42 yards on 12 carries.

The Patriots sat a good chunk of their starting offense in their 13-10 loss to Tampa Bay last week. Randy Moss, Donte’ Stallworth and Laurence Maroney all sat out, while Tom Brady only threw seven passes, completing five for 34 yards.

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NFL PRESEASON POINTERS

by JIM FEIST 

The pro football preseason kicked off this past weekend in the Hall of Fame game as the Steelers topped the Saints, 20-7. Steeler fans got a look at their new coach, 35-year old Mike Tomlin.

Remember that each season is different, with players changing teams, new coaches and assistants coming aboard, and star college players joining the pros as highly touted rookies. August football offers fans their first peak at all the new additions.

There are three interesting games this weekend.

1) The Jets and Falcons meet.

The Jets stole RB Thomas Jones from the Bears to add some balance to the offense. They also have been busy renovating their defensive line, signing defensive ends Eric Hicks, David Bowens, Kenyon Coleman, Andre Wadsworth and Michael Haynes. In addition, the offense is in the second year of offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer’s high-tech scheme that features an array of shifts and motions.

The Falcons have even more changes. New coach Bobby Petrino takes over, the former Louisville coach, who is an offensive wizard. His offenses couldn’t be more different than former coach Jim Mora, who favored a conservative ground attack. The bigger story is QB Michael Vick’s legal problems, which means Joey Harrington is the top signal caller, with Chris Redman and D.J. Shockley battling for the No. 2 spot.

It’s also worth noting that Petrino has not been hesitant to put his stamp on the team, by promoting or demoting players, opening competition, or moving players. The release of WR Fred Gibson three days into training camp sent a warning that there is no tolerance for not doing things the right way. That’s another thing to keep an eye on in August: a different attitude, either from coaches or certain players.

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2) The Buccaneers host the Patriots this weekend and Tampa Bay coach Jon Gruden has made all kinds of changes.

Newcomer QB Jeff Garcia is No. 1, giving Gruden the veteran presence they haven’t had since Rob Johnson left town. Chris Simms is battling for the backup job with second-year pro Bruce Gradkowski and Luke McCown. Garcia’s presence has prompted Gruden to consider the shotgun as a legitimate option for his version of the West Coast attack. Gruden is eager to expand his playbook in terms of rollouts and bootlegs to capitalize on Garcia’s mobility.

Defensively, the Bucs are considering new packages in an effort to disrupt timing and generate more heat on opposing quarterbacks. Last season, QBs feasted against Tampa Bay’s defense, posting a cumulative 91.0 rating. All of which means past preseason stats can be rendered meaningless if coaching staffs revamp.

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3) The Broncos and the 49ers hook up in their first preseason game.

A year ago there was a QB controversy between veteran Jake Plummer and rookie Jay Cutler. There is no such controversy this season, as Plummer retired and Cutler, with his rocket arm, is No. 1. The 49ers have lost star RB Frank Gore for the preseason.

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Some general reminders :

Of course, starters won’t see a lot of time just yet, and for good reason. Who can forget four years ago when Vick suffered a serious injury in August, wrecking his season. No coach wants to jeopardize his job and no owner wants to risk his investment by losing a key player to a devastating exhibition injury.

Still, with coaches rotating players, examining depth, testing new game plans, and individual athletes battling for roster spots, there’s plenty of competition in August. Another thing to keep an eye on is subtle strategic adjustments.

Also, keep an eye on home field play. In August of 2004, the home teams went 21-10-1 against the spread the first two weeks of preseason. Two years ago, the home team went 10-5 SU/ATS the first week of exhibition play, and last season went 11-5 SU, 8-7-1 ATS.

Sometimes coaches are disappointed with their team’s first game, particularly if it’s a road loss, and they want to see a more determined effort in Game 2, especially if it’s in front of the home fans. This happened a year ago when Denver looked sloppy in a 20-13 loss at Arizona as a favorite. A week later, at home, Shanahan demanded a better effort and the Broncos destroyed Tennessee, 35-10.

It’s not uncommon for new coaches to want to prove something early on, even in preseason, while veteran coaches might take a different approach.

Buffalo coach Marv Levy had veteran teams and rarely cared about preseason. Indy’s Tony Dungy is similar, more interested in health while taking it easy on veterans. Dungy’s Colts are 1-8 SU/2-7 ATS the last two preseasons.

But to prove that there are exceptions to every rule - note that Denver coach Mike Shanahan is 38-22 SU, 33-23-2 ATS in preseason, including 12-5 SU/10-7 ATS the last four Augusts. 

NFL PRESEASON BETTING TIPS

by JIM FEIST

Its Football season!Competition on the field won’t be as intense as September, of course, as wins aren’t as important as evaluating young talent and trying to keep players healthy.

However, there will be betting lines available on preseason pro action and it’s possible to cash winning tickets. Here are some things to keep in mind when watching preseason football, which starts this weekend as the Steelers and Saints battle in the Hall of Fame game.

Coaching Strategy:
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An understanding of what coaches are trying to accomplish each week in August is essential. With four preseason games to play, NFL coaches will typically go with starters one quarter or less in the first August game, one quarter-plus in second game, the first half and into the third quarter in the third game, and then very little in the fourth game. Keeping starters healthy while getting them some competition against the opponents’ first stringers are the obvious reasons.

Coaches will often use “vanilla” game plans, working on short passes and running plays. This is why preseason totals are lower than the regular season. For example, in the first preseason game last August, the high-powered Colts played the Rams and the total was 38. It went under in a 19-17 Rams’ win. If the game had been during the regular season, the total would have been closer to 48. In fact, when the Colts opened the season at the NY Giants, the total was 48. In the third preseason game, with starters projected to play more, the Colts’ total against the Saints jumped up to 41 (it was a push in 27-14 final). Working on basic plays and keeping things simple are often the case for the first two weeks of preseason.

Home Field:
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While home field is a big edge when games count in the post and regular seasons, home field is far less important in preseason, especially in Week 4. The last three years, the visiting team is 32-15-1 ATS in Week 4 of the preseason. Last year the visitors went 8-7-1 SU and 10-5-1 ATS in Week 4.

Newspapers:
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Keeping tabs daily on what local beat writers are commenting on is important. Many times coaches will hint at potential strategy, such as “We’re going to open up the passing game a bit in the first half this week.” Or, “Our starters will play two series just to get their feet wet.” These tidbits are key and a good sports bettor knows how to evaluate coaching comments, injuries, and how strategy changes may influence the side and total.

A few years ago in a preseason game, the Atlanta Falcons coach was furious with his team’s play the week before and announced that the starters would play the entire three quarters. The line jumped from Atlanta as a 2-point favorite all the way to 5, and went off at 6 by kickoff. Sharp bettors wasted no time in hammering the Falcons, who won and covered the game easily, all because of the extensive game plan (and anger) revealed by the coach.

Quarterback Play:
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Quarterback is the single most important position on the football field. Think of the Super Bowl matchups the last decade: How many below average QBs have gotten their team to the big game? The Ravens in 2000 with Trent Dilfer is about it (unless you’re a Chicago fan still seething about Rex Grossman’s flat Super Bowl). QB play is essential and a key this time of year as starters don’t play the whole game.

When wagering on a favorite in preseason, it’s important to carefully evaluate the No. 2 and 3 QBs as they often play as much as the starter or more. A team with a great starter expected to play just two series, with a rookie or poor backup QBs playing most of the game can be at a disadvantage.

Coaches:
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Coaching is such an important part of football, as so many players need to be organized and taught various roles each week. Some coaches are more demanding in preseason, while others are more laid back. Notice that Bill Belichick is 29-20 SU, 27-20-1 ATS all time in preseason. Mike Shanahan has an August record of 38-22 SU, 33-23-2 ATS.

A couple of young coaches who have terrific preseason marks are Chiefs coach Herman Edwards (16-8 SU, 15-9 ATS) and Carolina’s Jon Fox (15-5 SU, 12-7-1 ATS). Cleveland’s Romeo Crennel is 6-2 SU, 7-1 ATS in preseason, yet his regular season teams have gone 6-10 and 4-12.

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You can read more from Jim Feist - and get all his sports betting pick and previews at his site :

PRO FOOTBALL TEAMS WITH NEW LOOKS

by Dave Cokin

In 2002, the defending champion Patriots defense got old fast and fell apart, finishing 31st in the NFL against the run. If you can’t stop the run, why would opponents even try to pass?

The next two seasons New England beefed up the line and the defense was seventh overall (3rd against the run) and ninth overall (6th against the run) leading the way to consecutive titles. In 2003, the Steelers were a pass-happy team, with the running game ranking 30th.

Then they got back to running the football, long a Steeler staple, and it resulted in a 31-7 record and a Super Bowl title. Making offseason changes to address weaknesses is key in the NFL.

Let’s take a look at some NFL teams that have made offseason moves they hope will tighten up some weaknesses.

Arizona Cardinals : Dennis Green is out and Ken Whisenhunt takes over. He was the 2006 Steelers offensive coordinator. They grabbed Penn State OT Levi Jones in the first round and signed two offensive linemen, Mike Gandy and Al Johnson, to provide depth. They need protection for young QB Matt Leinart and some blocking for RB Edgerrin James, who went from 1,506 yards with the Colts in 2005 to just 3.4 yards per carry with Arizona.

The new coaching staff is looking for mobile offensive linemen, to block and run down field like the Steelers. The defense has been poor against the run but they bring in 6-foot-6 rookie NT Alan Branch (Michigan). His stock slipped in the draft, but he is still a rare run-stuffer that the Cardinals desperately need. Sports bettors take note: Arizona is 15-17 SU, 18-14 ATS the last four seasons at home, but 6-26 SU, 11-21 ATS on the road.

Cleveland Browns : GM Phil Savage and head coach Romeo Crennel went wild on draft day. Was it because they found some super-talented to turn the team around? Or did they rush rashly because they are feeling the heat? We’ll find out soon. Rookie QB Brady Quinn comes aboard along with mammoth offensive tackle Joe Thomas (Wisconsin, the No. 2 pick in the draft).

Throw in newcomer RB Jamal Lewis from the Ravens alongside TE Kellen Winslow and WR Braylon Edwards, and you won’t recognize the Browns offense. That would be a good thing, as the Browns ranked 31st in total offense. Of course, Quinn is a rookie, and this defense has been awful, ranked 29th against the run. The Browns hope the offense is explosive on the field as it is on paper, but beware: Cleveland is 20-10-1 under the total the last two years!

San Francisco 49ers : For a team that went 7-9, expectations are high for San Francisco this fall. Head Coach Mike Nolan begins his third year and the team had a huge offseason. They added outstanding free agent cornerback Nate Clements (Bills) and safety Michael Lewis to strengthen the secondary, while nose tackle Aubrayo Franklin and linebacker Tully Banta-Cain add depth to their 3-4 defense.

WR Ashley Lelie has speed to help young QB Alex Smith, and on draft day the 49ers ended up with two first round picks, Mississippi’s Patrick Willis (the best linebacker in the draft) and Joe Staley, a 6-foot-5, the 306-pound offensive tackle from Central Michigan. Staley’s 4.7 second 40-yard dash at the combine was the fastest time of any offensive lineman. Can they step up on the road? The 49ers are a poor 6-26 SU/14-16-2 ATS on the road the last four seasons where the ‘D’ has allowed 27.6 points per game.

Houston Texans : Second year head coach Gary Kubiak continues to overhaul the Texans, dumping franchise face QB David Carr for Atlanta backup QB Matt Schaub. The 26-year old Schaub has 6 TDs and 6 INTs in three NFL seasons (only 2 starts), but many feel the 6-foot-5 accurate passer has the stuff to be an everyday leader. He gets his chance, though Houston has had a lousy offensive line for years (and no Reggie Bush).

New offensive coordinator Mike Sherman is putting in a plan for more balance to the offense for this fall. They grabbed OT Brandon Frye (fifth round, Virginia Tech) and OG Kasey Studdard (sixth round, Texas) in the draft, signed LT Jordan Black (Chiefs) and add 30-year old RB Ahman Green (Packers), who is off a 1,059 yards season. Shaub will have excellent targets with WR Andre Johnson (1,147 yards) and veteran Eric Moulds.

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You can read more from Dave Cokin - and get all his sports betting pick and previews at his site :

PRO FOOTBALL TEAMS WITH SOMETHING TO PROVE

by Jim Feist

Frustration and failure can prove excellent motivating factors in sports. We see quality teams get beaten badly all the time, then bounce back the next game with a terrific performance with an easy win (and easy cover).

This can also take place with teams that are off disappointing seasons.

It may seem a distant memory now, but the Bears ended the 2005 season with a blowout loss at the Vikings (34-10) then a home loss to the Panthers in the playoffs, 29-21. Last season, the Bears were very motivated team, going 15-3 while winning the NFC. They seemed to be on a mission and didn’t want to repeat the late season disappointment of 2005.

A year ago - I pointed out that only the Colts could feel terrible after a 14-3 season, blowing a home playoff game to the Steelers, 21-18, and that for 2006, “They are still a talented team capable of beating anyone.” They certainly played with a chip on their shoulder while starting 9-0 and rolling in the postseason. When channeled properly, frustration can be focused into positive energy.

Here are 5 NFL teams that may have something to prove in 2007.

(1) San Diego Chargers : Like the Colts in 2006, no team has more to prove in 2007 than the Chargers. A dominating 14-2 regular season was flushed down the drain in a shocking playoff loss at home to the Patriots, blowing a late 21-13 lead. This is still a talented group led by QB Phillip Rivers (22 TDs, 9 picks), a strong offensive line and MVP RB LaDainian Tomlinson. LT ran for 1,815 yards (5.2 ypc) and 28 TDs, while catching 56 passes for 508 yards.

TE Antonio Gates is joined by rookie WR Craig Davis (LSU) and the defense is loaded up front. While the talent on the field is the same, the coaching staff got a complete overhaul, with Norv Turner as coach and Ted Cottrell the new defensive coordinator. It’s a tough situation for Turner in that Marty Schottenheimer was liked by the players. On the other hand, he’s been handed the keys to a Mercedes, one that should be motivated by the playoff collapse.

(2) New York Giants : The spotlight is on NY Giants coach Tom Coughlin, who is likely on a short leash. He was a cinch to be fired after the team went 2-7 SU, 3-5-1 ATS. They were sloppy, undisciplined and fractured after a 6-2 start. Incredibly, he’s back. There are plenty of big-names with something to prove, from Coughlin, to turnover-prone QB Eli Manning, injury-prone TE Jeremy Shockey, not to mention a defense that has ranked 27th against the pass in each of the last two seasons. That’s why Texas cornerback Aaron Ross was plucked in the first round. Note that the Giants are 13-19-1 ATS their last 33 home games.

(3) Arizona Cardinals : In 2006, the Saints ripped off the “longtime loser” moniker and soared all the way to the NFC title game. This season, the Cardinals want to rip off the loser label. Like the Saints a year ago, the Cardinals bring in a new head coach in Ken Whisenhunt, the Steelers offensive coordinator in 2006.

He’s looking for a balanced offense, like the Steelers, and bulked up the offensive line with Penn State OT Levi Jones and the defensive line with 6-6 run-stuffer Alan Branch (Michigan). The offense has all kinds of talented pieces to work with in QB Matt Leinart and Pro Bowl receivers Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald. Keep in mind the Cardinals are 30-15 over the total the last 45 games.

(4) Seattle Seahawks : Seattle made the Super Bowl two years ago, but despite making the playoffs last season they stumbled with all kinds of problems. The running game slipped badly with some offensive line changes plus the injured foot of RB Shaun Alexander, and QB Matt Hasselbeck missed time in mid-season.

The defense fell to 18th overall and a poor 22nd against the run. Former Atlanta DE Patrick Kerney comes aboard, while the secondary adds SS Brian Russell (Cleveland), FS Deon Grant (Jacksonville) and Maryland CB Josh Wilson comes in as a rookie from Round 2. They lost top WR Darrell Jackson (956 yards), which means WR Deion Branch (725 yards) will have to step up as the No. 1.

(5) New England Patriots : The Pats ran out of gas in the AFC Championship, with injuries everywhere, contributing to a stinging 38-34 last second loss at Indy. They’ve beefed up the linebackers with free agent Adalius Thomas (Ravens), added Miami S Brandon Merriweather in the secondary, and upgraded the receiving corps with WRs Dante Stallworth, Randy Moss and Wes Welker.

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Jim Feist’s Paid Picks Site ::::
Top internet betting lines :::: Pinnacle Sports Bookmaker 
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Super Bowl Propositions - The Achilles’ Heel of Square Books

According to USA Today, half of all Americans will wager on the Super Bowl, as a result, 90% of bets on the game are made by novice gamblers. Aware of the opportunity to attract new customers, sportsbooks understandably focus an enormous amount of energy on the biggest game on the sports schedule. The most successful approach to excite these armchair bettors is to offer propositions that promise potentially big returns for a very modest outlay, and those that focus on seemingly random or humorous events.

The problem that books face with this approach is that often just one odds maker is pricing the lines based on variables that he has far less reliable data on than he is used to. These propositions can be the easiest for an educated player to beat and sportsbooks routinely lose money on them. Propositions are a loss-leader for the betting world to tempt new bettors who will end up losing money on one of the more lucrative areas for the bookie. To protect themselves in this unusually vulnerable situation, sportsbooks build in inordinately large margins - typically using a 30 or 40-cent line with low wagering limits - yet will often consider a break-even result a success.

When you wager on a proposition, it’s typically your opinion versus one odds maker. If you know more than that one odds maker, you are going to get the best of it. For Super Bowl XLI, Pinnacle Sportsbook is offering over 200 props with many priced to world beating 15-cent margins, a significant savings versus the 30 to 40-cent lines at other online books.

With this many wagering options and the public betting like mad, it’s not uncommon to see prop lines move on public money alone. At Pinnacle Sportsbetting, there are several professional prop players that will take a contrarian view on our props and bet almost any one that moves more than 20 cents (betting towards the original price). Therefore, the ‘Pinnacle Lean’ is useful for measuring market prices on props as well as on sides and totals. For example, PinnacleSports.com is offering the following prop: ‘Who will score the first TD?’ at Colts -145/Bears +130. This suggests that the no-vig price based on our 15-cent line is -137.5/+137.5. Therefore, you can ‘play the lean’ if you find another book with the Yes at -136.5, or the No at +138.5.

The biggest mistake that players and odds makers make when evaluating props is in not understanding the difference between the median and the mean (average). Most players would assume that the average (total/frequency) is an accurate measure, but the correct way to analyze many of these types of props is to use the median. Looking at a list of theoretical score lengths in ascending order, the median is the middle number:

1, 1, 17, 20 (median), 39, 47, 59

If you assumed before Sunday’s game that these seven scores would occur, and assessed the prop ‘Will the first score be more than 24.5 yards?’ you’d price the ‘No’ knowing the under would hit four out of seven times, making the no-vig price on the ‘No’ -133 or (-4/3*100). Whereas if you took the average it would give you another answer (26.3), and lead you to the very different and misleading conclusion that the over is more likely.

Although this concept is simple and rather obvious, it will pay dividends to anyone who is prepared to spend time calculating the median. The median is useful on all types of props - from ‘length of first rush’ to the ‘longest/shortest’ props (where you use the median result from games for the whole season). In fact, there are two straightforward ways to accurately price these types of props.

First, you’ll want to use as much data as possible. Since the Colts have played 19 games and Chicago has played 18 games, this gives you a much better estimate of a fair mid-point. Secondly, you should also consider adjusting your data for the opponent, perhaps ignoring some data for games that aren’t similar to their Super Bowl opponent. Sharp bettors might only use data where both teams were playing under similar spread scenarios (though this might produce a small sample for the Bears).

Good Luck.

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Have a look at JustBet.com.

Licenced and operating in Costa Rica, JustBet.com is a privately held sportsbook run by the Tradewinds Group. This bookmaking organization has a good reputation for successfully servicing sports bettors for over 11 years through a range of betting brands. JustBet.com is a recent consolidation of Tradewinds betting sites and despite a 2006 launch, is no Johnny-come-lately with support systems and payment processes in place to support safe offshore wagers for US bettors.

Endorsed and certified by security watchdog the Offshore Gaming Council since 2000, JustBet.com may be the right betting option for you.

Jimmy Vaccaro, Master Linesmaker says of JustBet.com: “We make a point to drop by Tradewinds every year…there isn’t an operation outside of Vegas or Atlantic City that even comes close…these guys always manage to stay one step ahead of everybody else in the industry”

Bob Martin, Inventor of the Modern Point Spread has been quoted as saying “The Federal Reserve will stiff you before Tradewinds will…” “Tradewinds takes the biggest bets I’ve heard of and, most importantly, they pay. I haven’t heard of a maximum refused yet. The underground stories told of bets paid off by this no-nonsense shop are impressive”

Renowned betting tipster The Gooner of Goonersguide.com however considers that “Justbet.com is not a recommended bookmaker for European sports punters. European and UK online gamblers have plenty of better rated bookies to join and should see our bookie scorecard for details”.

He adds “For US sports bettors however, you have a limited number of choices and Justbet.com is probably the safest choice you have out there. It gives solid coverage of mainstream US professional sports with a brand that has been running for over a decade”.
 
Here’s a link to The Gooner’s latest sportsbook review of JustBet.com or click this link to visit JustBet.com directly.