The Sports Bookie Blog

How to Handicap College Bowl Games (Pt 2)

December 17th, 2006

If you can’t bring yourself to bet on a side – just because they are a big underdog – and most players prefer to bet on favourites – then you’ll need to actually do some homework in order to handicap your selected Bowl Game.

Firstly, contemplate the motivational edge. A solid team playing against a weak opponent may be disappointed by the match-up. This could result in flat play, which is one explanation for the underdog Bowl trend mentioned in part 1.

When an average or slightly above average team goes to a Bowl game, it’s playing in its “Super Bowl” and every player is motivated to play the game of their life. This inspiration may not be felt by their superior opponents, so look for many underdogs to have an emotional edge in the Bowls.

(Of course in the BCS Bowls, strong teams usually stay motivated regardless of their opponent)

The second major factor to consider for College Bowl Games is a team’s coach. When teams have four weeks to prepare, and holidays are between a team’s last regular season game and the Bowl, coaching plays a bigger role than normal.

A well-coached team is likely to over perform, but even more so in a Bowl game when there’s more time to prepare. Conversely, an undisciplined team has more time to lose focus.

So in a nutshell here is our basic bowl handicap advice …

• “big underdogs tend to cover the spread better than the betting public believe.”
• “motivated teams will keep the score closer than you expect.”
• “good coaching is doubly important – the teams have had a month to prepare.”

Keep it in mind the next time you see a 7+ point spread – and check out the underdog very carefully – do they fit the bill to become a candidate for this system – and add to that 71% success rate?

And remember – bet on the best odds : Bet at PinnacleSports.

 

Entry Filed under: NCAAF College Football,Sports Betting,Sports News & Results