Posts filed under 'NCAAF College Football'
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September 2nd, 2007
by SCOTT SPREITZER
We’re now just a couple of days away from the start of the college football season. Here are some factors to remember when trying to pick winners in the season openers.
* The rules have changed in the offseason in a way that will favor the powerhouses and hurt lesser teams.
After a one year experiment that shrunk college games, the clock will run much more like it did back in 2005. Remember to put those points back on the board when outlining expectations for games in 2007. And remember that moving kickoffs back to the 30-yard line will help squads that have superior special teams.
* Remember that defenses are ahead of offenses at the beginning of a college season.
It didn’t used to be this dramatic. But in recent years we’ve seen several offenses really struggle early in the season. Defenses are much more aggressive than they used to be. If you’ve got a new quarterback, and a new running back in charge of picking up blitzes, your offense will have trouble in the first few games of the season. Last year’s timing changes exacerbated this element, leading to some very low scoring openers.
Remember when both Temple/Buffalo and Miami of Ohio/Northwestern were scoreless at the half on the first night of action? This year’s rules adjustments will just be giving some teams more plays to flounder!
* Make note of all the successful teams from last year that lost their starting quarterbacks.
There’s a slew of them! The worst thing you can do early in a season is to bet off last year’s expectations. Notre Dame is going to look like a whole different team this year. The teams that played in the BCS championship game, Florida and Ohio State, both have new quarterbacks. Strong finisher LSU does as well. Make the new quarterbacks earn your respect on the field before investing in them.
* Make note of all bowl caliber teams who return most of their offenses.
There are actually some nice second tier teams who are poised to hit the ground running in 2007 because they’ve got so many starters back. They’ll be able to handle blitzes out of the gate. And, they’ll be eager to make even more headlines this year than they did last season. The worst favorites to take will be last year’s powers that lost quarterbacks. The best favorites to take will be these second tier teams who return experience in the right spots. Heck, some of these guys will be dogs at least once early on. Be on the lookout for upset specials.
* Catch up on injuries and suspensions!
If you did a lot of research based on information in those newsstand publications that came out over the summer, you may not be aware that many top players have since been injured or suspended. The last thing you want to do is bet on a game, then find out when the telecast starts that your star running back isn’t going to play…and everyone BUT you seemed to know about it!
Check internet sites for reports on injuries and suspensions. Also be aware that a few returning starting quarterbacks lost their starting jobs within the last couple of weeks during late summer practices. You’d hate to bet against a team because the QB was bad last year, only to find out that a hotshot recruit is ready to turn the program around.
*Finally, remember that the oddsmakers are behind the eight-ball a bit because of the rules adjustments.
This year more than ever, you should be looking at the early games Thursday, Friday, and Saturday morning to get a feel for what football in 2007 is going to look like. Then you can take advantage in later starts Saturday afternoon and evening. Really, before last year, you could pretty much handicap September football with the same old basics.
The rules changes in 2006 caught Vegas napping. Unders were a STEAL for about a month because scoring dropped so much.
And, there were many great underdog plays because the games had shrunk. Favorites didn’t have time to express their superiority in a way that matched the spreads. The tinkering and re-tinkering with the clock and kickoffs throws a monkey wrench into the line making process. If you can read the tea leaves before they do, you’ll be able to take advantage for most of the month in my opinion. Start reading as soon as the games start!
I have to tell you, I can’t recall being THIS excited about the start of a college season. I’ve stayed on top of developments day-by-day all summer long. So, I’m ready to catch the oddsmakers napping once again!
RELATED LINKS :
If you want to read more from Scott – then check out his web site at PicksOnline :
August 27th, 2007
by DAVE COKIN
AN EARLY LOOK AT FOOTBALL TOTALS
While everyone this time of the year is looking at previews for football teams, let’s take a deeper look from a handicapping perspective. It’s a great time to examine team strengths and weaknesses and get an idea whether a team might provide value “over” or “under” the total. Not in terms of season wins, but on each game they play, even starting with the opener. Here are a few teams that fall into an over or under category based on their relative returning merits.
Kentucky: Rich Brooks begins his fifth season at Kentucky, and while they are not the football powerhouse that the basketball program is, there is enormous excitement around the gridiron for 2007.
Kentucky (8-5) is off a bowl season where they upset Clemson, 28-20, as a +11 dog, with an electric offense. Senior QB Andre Woodson ran the SEC’s best passing attack, with 276 yards passing per game, as he completed 63% of his passes for 3,515 yards, 31 TDs, 7 INTs. The offense is loaded, with senior tailback Rafael Little, and Woodson’s top targets, led by senior WR Keenan Burton (1,036 yards, 12 TDs).
But the defense has been porous, giving up 184 yards on the ground per game. They are reminiscent of North Carolina when they had QB Darius Durant and an awful defense. That UNC squad went over the total often and so might this Kentucky team.
LSU: Under the total teams feature a dominant defense but a suspect offense, particularly one losing its top quarterback. LSU fits that to a tee. The Tigers allowed just 7 points per game at home last season and return 8 defensive starters.
The front line is awesome, anchored by All-America DT Glenn Dorsey. They would have been the favorite to win the national title, but the offense lost QB JaMarcus Russell early to the NFL, the No. 1 overall selection. QBs Matt Flynn and sophomore Ryan Perrilloux will battle for the job, so you can imagine some 13-10 LSU games.
All of which makes the Tigers a potential “under the total” type team.
Virginia Tech: The Hokies are similar to LSU. The defense was No. 1 in the country in 2006 allowing just 219 total yards and 11 points per game. Eight starters are back on defense. But the passing offense is suspect, with junior QB Sean Glennon (11 TDs, 11 INTs), who completed just 56% of his passes. They were 8-4 under the total with all that defense.
Oh, and guess who they play September 8? At LSU! Wonder if the total on that game will get bet down to 30.
Air Force: We think of the Falcons as all-running, all the time, but head coach Fisher DeBerry retired. New coach Troy Calhoun takes over and he was the offensive coordinator for the Houston Texans and brings in a pro-style attack. He has a capable QB to work with in senior Shaun Carney, a four-year starter. But this defense has been awful, allowing 31, 31 and 25 ppg the last three seasons. The secondary was torched by Tennessee, Colorado State and even UNLV.
Air Force is 20-13 over the total the last 3 years and may continue to be with their new pro-style offense and a suspect ‘D’.
Washington State: Last season the Cougars scored more points than their opponents with a strong offense that averaged 24.6 points and 259 yards passing. 7 starters return on offense, led by QB Alex Brink (19 TDs, 10 INTs), who hit 60% of his passes. But the defense was poor which is why Head Coach Bill Doba will also take over as defensive coordinator.
Washington State was 8-4 over the total last fall and could be a good over team again.
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You can read more from Dave Cokin – and get all his sprts betting pick and previews at his site :
July 14th, 2007
PinnacleSports.com, one of the industry’s largest online sports betting operations, has voluntarily pulled out of the US market.
Many companies can not compete with PinnacleSports‘ tight margins where a player would win $94-$96 for every $100 bet on the handicaps compared to the typical odds of $90-$92 at most online bookmakers.
A brief message appeared on the PinnacleSports.com website Thursday morning:
“After careful consideration, Pinnacle Sports have chosen to voluntarily exit the U.S. market. Accordingly, wagers will no longer be accepted from clients within the U.S. as of Thursday, January 11, 2007.
Those clients who are affected will be required to withdraw their balances using the Cashier of their account.
We assure all our clients your balances are available and Pinnacle will continue providing our international clients our same great value. “
PinnacleSports have a sizable European market share (with 40% of their business is believed to be European and Asian based) and will continue to service all other betting regions.
The PinnacleSports website is still online and accepting bets from existing customers – but investigations show that the option ‘United States’ has been withdrawn from the list of eligable countries in the join-up process.
For professional sports bettors, no sports book or bookmaker comes close to the odds on offer at PinnacleSports, and this change will mean a significant number of US based bettors will be looking for betting action elsewhere.
January 11th, 2007
If you can’t bring yourself to bet on a side – just because they are a big underdog – and most players prefer to bet on favourites – then you’ll need to actually do some homework in order to handicap your selected Bowl Game.
Firstly, contemplate the motivational edge. A solid team playing against a weak opponent may be disappointed by the match-up. This could result in flat play, which is one explanation for the underdog Bowl trend mentioned in part 1.
When an average or slightly above average team goes to a Bowl game, it’s playing in its “Super Bowl” and every player is motivated to play the game of their life. This inspiration may not be felt by their superior opponents, so look for many underdogs to have an emotional edge in the Bowls.
(Of course in the BCS Bowls, strong teams usually stay motivated regardless of their opponent)
The second major factor to consider for College Bowl Games is a team’s coach. When teams have four weeks to prepare, and holidays are between a team’s last regular season game and the Bowl, coaching plays a bigger role than normal.
A well-coached team is likely to over perform, but even more so in a Bowl game when there’s more time to prepare. Conversely, an undisciplined team has more time to lose focus.
So in a nutshell here is our basic bowl handicap advice …
- “big underdogs tend to cover the spread better than the betting public believe.”
- “motivated teams will keep the score closer than you expect.”
- “good coaching is doubly important – the teams have had a month to prepare.”
Keep it in mind the next time you see a 7+ point spread – and check out the underdog very carefully – do they fit the bill to become a candidate for this system – and add to that 71% success rate?
And remember – bet on the best odds : Bet at PinnacleSports.
December 17th, 2006
With 32 College Bowl Games spread through January 8th, many handicappers are putting in extra hours.
While some suggest treating these games just like any other, there are two good reasons to spend some extra time studying these match-ups.
First, games that are televised over the holidays have more “public” money bet on them, giving the studious player the opportunity to gain an extra edge.
Second, there are a number of factors that cause many of these games to play out differently from the regular season, giving yet more value to professionals.
“Technical handicapping” is a method of looking for statistical trends without giving too much weight to the teams themselves. This method has previously proved very successful for Bowl Games.
In the past four years, underdogs getting more than 7 points have gone 25-10-1, or 71.4% against the spread. However, be careful not to blindly bet a technical trend that has done well in the past.
More people are discovering these angles and betting into them, so if everyone has the same idea, the line eventually becomes more efficient (e.g. a +12 dog in years past may now only be +8), pushing the trend towards 50% going forward.
(more handicapping advice tomorrow)
COLLEGE FOOTBALL BETTING GOLDEN RULE – GET THE BEST PRICE !!!
Remember to get the best lines on College Football you don’t have to search all over the place – simply head over to PinnacleSports who are betting at -105 to each game instead of the online bookmaker average of -110.
Those 5 percentage points per game are usually enough for most “Average Joes” to turn a profit over a weekend – so even if you think that you are betting for fun – why not make some beer money with it?
December 14th, 2006
What are players betting at Pinnacle Sports this week?
Here is the inside word from one of the linesmakers …
USC +1 -103 v. Michigan
After UCLA stunned USC and Florida beat Arkansas, both of these former championship contenders had to settle for the Rose Bowl. Michigan’s omission from the title game has caused controversy over the BCS selection process and it appears that regional politics impact who plays in the big game. Michigan was considered the #2 team in three out of four regions, but the South voted strongly in favor of Florida, pushing them up the poll.
We opened the Wolverines at -2 ½ (-105) but have taken twice as many wagers on USC as Michigan, causing the line to creep down. The sharps have mostly steered clear of this game to this point.
Florida +7 ½ -109 v. Ohio State
With a convincing win over Arkansas in the SEC title game, Florida edged out Michigan for the #2 spot in the BCS rankings by just 1/100th of a point. The computer rankings had the two teams tied, but Florida passed Michigan in the Harris Poll and USA Today poll. That was just enough for Florida to earn an invitation to the BCS National Championship Game.
We opened the Buckeyes at -7 (-105), and took a lot of early Ohio State money. The line spiked as high as -9, with twice as many bets on Ohio State as Florida, but a few sharps played the Gators at +8.5 and +9 forcing the line to drift back to +7.5.
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Remember that betting at Pinnacle Sports makes sense – they have the sharpest online prices on NCAA football of any of the top 10 bookies.
Be safe, be smart, get the best prices at Pinnacle Sports
December 9th, 2006
Rutgers may be going to consecutive bowl games for the first time, but not to the one it wanted.
TEXAS BOWL : RUTGERS vs KANSAS STATE
One day after missing out on a BCS bowl berth because of a triple-overtime defeat, the Scarlet Knights accepted a bid to play Kansas State in the inaugural Texas Bowl on Sunday.
ORANGE BOWL : LOUISVILLE vs WAKE FOREST
Rutgers (10-2) came up just short at West Virginia on Saturday, 41-39 in triple overtime. Had the Scarlet Knights won the game, they would have won the Big East Conference’s automatic BCS bowl bid. Instead, Louisville (11-1) secured the league title and will oppose Wake Forest (11-2) in the Orange Bowl.
GATOR BOWL : WEST VIRGINIA vs GEORGIA TECH
West Virginia (10-2) accepted a spot in the Gator Bowl against Georgia Tech (9-4) on New Year’s Day, relegating Rutgers to the Big East’s third bowl spot, against Kansas State (7-5) in the first Texas Bowl in Houston on December 28.
CAPITAL ONE BOWL : WISCONSIN vs ARKANSAS
Another team surely unhappy about its bowl is No. 6 Wisconsin (11-1). The Badgers tied for second in the Big Ten Conference with Michigan and is ranked higher than half of the BCS teams but has been relegated to the Capital One Bowl against Arkansas (10-2) because three teams from the same league cannot all go to BCS games.
OUTBACK BOWL : PENN STATE vs TENNESSEE
In another Big Ten-SEC clash on January 1, Penn State (8-4) will take on Tennessee (9-3) in the Outback Bowl.
“Tennessee is a great opponent for us,” Penn State coach Joe Paterno said. “They have a great football tradition and a very good team again this year. They played well in a tough league. It’s going to be a challenging game for us.”
COTTON BOWL : NEBRASKA vs AUBURN
Also on January 1, Nebraska (9-4) will play Auburn (10-2) in the Cotton Bowl.
December 5th, 2006
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