The Sports Bookie Blog

Training Camp: From the linesmaker - by the team at popular US-friendly online sportsbook Bodog Sports.

I can’t deny the fact that I’ve got a great job. But it’s not like I spend all day sipping mai-tais and browsing the swimsuit issue. I have to make sure that the betting lines I put up are an accurate reflection of the betting marketplace – one half-point in the wrong direction could take food off my plate.

Some people still think my job is to pull the wool over our customers’ eyes and take their cash. I think the informative articles you’ll find on Bodog Sports prove otherwise. We want our customers to make educated bets so nobody loses his shirt – us included. So let me play the Answer Man for a moment and give you an insight into the nature of what we do around here.

How are game totals set?

It’s common knowledge among bettors that the online gambling industry pays close attention to Las Vegas Sports Consultants, a private company that handles the odds for casinos and newspapers. But the totals I set have to reflect our customers’ preferences for betting the over or under on certain teams in certain situations. Also, because LVSC lines are published early, I have to keep on top of injuries and potential changes in coaching strategy leading up to the game in question before I release any totals. This is doubly important in basketball, where pace determines how many shots will be taken in 48 minutes.

Why do lines move?

Ideally, the lines I release will balance the action equally, so that the winners get paid out from the pockets of the losers and we take the vigorish. That’s an ideal that rarely happens – especially in sports without a pointspread, like NASCAR and golf. If Team A is getting too much action, I’ll move the line toward Team B to try to achieve that balance. My personal preference is to tweak the vig from –110 to –105 or +100 before taking the bigger step of moving the spread a half-point or more.

Are there ways to make money from line movements?

Absolutely. When the lines go up for the NFL, or for the first game of the NCAA men’s basketball tournament, there are several days in between the open and the game itself where movement can take place. You’ll find that the betting public tends to pile in on their favorite teams once they get home from work on Friday. You can anticipate these line movements and time your bet accordingly to take advantage.

Sometimes a line will move far enough to create a “middle” opportunity. Say the Texas Longhorns end up facing the Wisconsin Badgers in the first round of March Madness. If you have Texas early as a 5-point favorite, and I move the line to Texas –7 later in the week, then you can also place a bet on Wisconsin +7. If Texas happens to win by six points, both your bets cash in. Texas winning by either five or seven gives you a win and a push. Any other result creates a win and a loss, so you’re only risking the vigorish.

What type of betting statistics do you recommend?

If you want to predict what will happen when Team A meets Team B, your best stats to analyze are those generated in their most recent head-to-head matchups at the same venue. The habits of the betting public are fairly constant, so ATS results in general have a longer shelf life, but don’t bother going too far back in time. The 2009 New York Yankees are going to look a lot different than the 2008 Yankees or the 2000 Yankees.

Do multiple deposits count toward special promotion offers?

Yes. If you receive a special offer from our marketing team, and you make several deposits adding up to X dollars before the expiry date, it qualifies the same as one big deposit of X dollars. We remind you, though, to be aware of our deposit method fees and take those into account.

Ready for some online betting?  Get started today at Bodog Sportsbook!

>>For more on Bodog, check out the latest Bodog Sportsbook Review here at BookieLabRat.com.
>>Compare Bodog Sportsbook to other online betting sites popular and safe for American bettors.

Here’s the latest round-up of stake-back betting promotions at the top online sportsbooks for European and UK sports betting. Win, Lose - or get your stake back!

Tuesday’s Champions Cashback

If Ronaldo Scores The Last Goal of the Inter Milan v Man United Game, Boylesports Will Refund ALL Losing Single Bets In ALL MARKETS Of ALL 4 Of Tuesday’s Champions League Matches! Max refund EUR300 or currency equivalent. (Applies to pre-match betting only).

Wednesday’s Champions Cashback

If Torres scores the last goal of the Real Madrid v Liverpool game BoyleSports will refund ALL losing single bets in ALL markets on ALL FOUR of Wedneday’s Champions League games. Max refund EUR300 or currency equivalent. (Applies to pre-match betting only).

The Special One?

Inter Milan v Man Utd  -  Tues 7.45pm ITV/RTE2. Ireland
Money-Back Special: If Ronaldo scores the last goal in this match Paddy Power will refund all losing 1st/last goalscorer, correct score & scorecast singles on the match. Max Refund €300/£200 per customer.  If Ronaldo takes no part in match special will revert to last goal from outside box. Own goals do not count.

All Champions League Matchs involving British sides

BetFred will refund your total stake as a free bet on any Champions League game involving a British side if… - You place a scorecast bet and you only get one half of your selection correct… OR - You place a first goalscorer bet and your selection doesn’t score first but scores last.

Maximum refund is £100 (or your currency equivalent) per customer. Own goals do not count. Applies to all Champions League games involving Man Utd, Chelsea, Liverpool, Arsenal and Celtic only

Last Chance Saloon Refund

Place a bet on the 1st goal scorer, or last goal scorer markets for any of the below games and if the selected player for that game scores the last goal Ladbrokes will refund all losing 1st goal scorer or last goal scorer bets for that game.

Arsenal vs Roma  -  Robin van Persie 
Atletico Madrid vs Porto  -  Diego Forlan
Inter Milan vs Man Utd  -  Zlatan Ibrahimovic
Lyon vs Barcelona  -  Samuel Eto’o
 
Goals scored in extra time or penalty shoot outs do not apply. Total refunds per customer up to a maximum of £250. Bet must be placed before kick off to qualify, bets in play will not be valid for the offer

Bet365 Bore Draw Offer

Place a pre-match correct score, double result or scorecast bet on ANY FOOTBALL MATCH and Bet365 will refund losing stakes if the match finishes 0-0.

Here’s another post from the team at popular US-friendly online sportsbook Bodog.

Training Camp: Betting Outside the Top 25

It’s the Year of the Upset – or is it?

It always causes a sensation when a big-name college basketball program gets its head handed to it on a platter by one of the lesser-known teams outside the Top 25. Case in point: Sunday’s 80-74 win by Boston College over then-No. 5 Duke (-7.5). Or even more amazing, the Eagles’ 85-78 defeat of then-No. 1 North Carolina (-23) back on Jan. 4 – in Chapel Hill, no less.

The culture of sharp handicapping, in college hoops and elsewhere, suggests that chalk is bad. But before we jump all over the AP sportswriters and college coaches who vote in the polls, let’s go back and take a look at the results. Here’s a week-by-week breakdown of how ranked teams have done against unranked teams this season in matchups with betting lines attached, using the ESPN/USA Today Poll (aka the coaches poll) as our guideline.

Non-conference

Week 1: 14-0 SU, 8-6 ATS
Week 2: 32-4 SU, 20-14-2 ATS
Week 3: 33-6 SU, 24-15 ATS
Week 4: 20-5 SU, 13-12 ATS
Week 5: 18-3 SU, 10-11 ATS
Week 6: 15-2 SU, 3-13-1 ATS
Week 7: 13-3 SU, 8-8 ATS

Conference

Week 8: 25-9 SU, 19-15 ATS
Week 9: 30-5 SU, 18-16-1 ATS
Week 10: 24-6 SU, 17-13 ATS
Week 11: 21-7 SU, 14-13-1 ATS
Week 12: 23-8 SU, 17-13-1 ATS
Week 13: 27-11 SU, 18-19-1 ATS
Week 14: 27-10 SU, 20-17 ATS

These numbers are anathema to the idea of fading the ranked teams as a whole. It is entirely possible to be undervalued and in the rankings at the same time – consider the No. 15 Kansas Jayhawks, who are contending once again for the Big 12 title at 20-5 SU and a very healthy 14-5 ATS. But Kansas is also one of only four teams in the coaches poll who are also in the Top 20 of the ATS rankings – the others are No. 4 Pittsburgh (13-6-1 ATS), No. 6 Memphis (16-8 ATS) and No. 11 Arizona State (14-7 ATS).

The key to betting on all those other lucrative unranked teams is to pick and choose your spots. You’ll notice the huge numbers the ranked clubs pulled in early, especially during the first three weeks at 52-35-2 ATS. This was during the cupcake portion of the non-conference schedule, when the big boys usually have no problem covering giant spreads against tiny programs that are happy to get humiliated in exchange for a wad of cash. The closer you get to the end of the non-con schedule, the tougher the matchups get and the more likely someone’s going to sneak away with a payday.

Once you get into conference action, the number of upsets goes up considerably – although few of these matchups involve those lucrative ATS teams from the mid-majors and lower. Ranked teams have still been profitable during this part of the season, but by being selective and supporting the clubs who can’t seem to get the respect or votes they deserve from the coaches, you can make some money. The Ohio State Buckeyes, for example, are 7-5 SU and 8-4 ATS in Big Ten action with upsets over Michigan (-5.5) and visiting Purdue (-2).

The trick with finding these teams is that the coaches usually don’t ignore winners for very long. Which makes OSU’s case particularly strange – the Buckeyes also pulled off non-con upsets of Miami-Florida (-8) and Notre Dame (-5) at the Hartford Hall of Fame Showcase. But it’s not surprising that there’s been value in both Ohio State and Kansas this year; these are two recent NCAA Tournament finalists that had their lineups gutted by the NBA Draft and were left for dead. Never forget that when betting on college hoops, you’re betting for or against coaches like Thad Matta and Bill Self. Those are definitely two winners.

>>Bet on NCAA Basketball at Bodog Sportsbook!

>>Compare Bodog Sportsbook to other online sportsbooks popular with North American bettors

Here’s the latest round up of sportsbook money back special betting promotions at top rating online bookmakers. They all cover EPL matches playing February 21 and 22nd, 2009. 

Another Early Payout! 

Man Utd v Blackburn  Sat. 5.30pm Live on Setanta
Money-Back Special: If a goal is scored in the first ten minutes of the game, Paddy Power will refund all losing 1st /last goalscorer, correct score & scorecast singles on the match. Max Refund E300/£200 per customer. Does not apply to customers whose language of registration is Spanish.

Gift of the Gab

Aston Villa v Chelsea  -  Saturday 21st February
If Gabriel Agbonlahor scores the last goal against Chelsea, BetFred will refund all losing first/last goalscorer, correct score & scorecast bets as a free bet. Maximum refund is £100 (or your currency equivalent) per customer. Own goals do not count. 

Everything Must Jo

Newcastle v Everton  -  Sunday 22nd February
If Jo scores the last goal against Newcastle on Sunday, BetFred will refund all losing first/last goalscorer, correct score and scorecast bets as a free bet. Maximum refund is £100 (or your currency equivalent) per customer. Own goals do not count.

Aston Villa v Chelsea - Saturday, 21 February

If your bet loses and a penalty kick (a direct free kick from the penalty mark) is awarded during the first half of this match, Canbet will refund your bet (Correct Score Only).  Maximum bonus is £50 (€65)…enter the promotional code: EPL21FEB

Liverpool v Manchester City - Sunday, 22 February

If your bet loses and any player scores a hatrick (3 goals) in this match, Canbet will refund your bet (Correct Score Only).  Maximum bonus is £50 (€65)…enter the promotional code: EPL22FEB

Correct Score Cashback

Place a correct score bet on any match in one of the major leagues*. If there are 6 goals or more in the match and your bet loses, Globet will refund your stake up to a maximum of 250 Euros.  *Major Leagues include Italian Serie A, English Premier, Spanish La Liga, German Bundesliga, Champions League and UEFA Cup matches.

Bet365 Bore Draw Offer

Place a pre-match correct score, double result or scorecast bet on ANY FOOTBALL MATCH and Bet365 will refund losing stakes if the match finishes 0-0.

Heres the latest contribution to BookieLabRat.com from the team at popular Irish Bookie BoyleSports.com.

Eduardo marked his return to Arsenal’s first team a year after the horror injury which threatened his career by scoring twice in his side’s FA Cup victory over Cardiff last night.

THE SUN: Eduardo Da Silva wept with joy as he capped an amazing comeback from his leg-break horror with a double strike. Also: Paul Collingwood hit a dazzling ton as England took command of the Third Test against the West Indies.

DAILY MIRROR: Arsenal striker Eduardo made an emotional return last night - a year after suffering a horrific broken leg. Also: Rafa Benitez has accused his Liverpool bosses of leaving him “dead” because of their agonising contract dispute. Also:

DAILY STAR: Eduardo ended a year of agony with a stunning double strike on his Arsenal return in the FA Cup last night. Also: Michael Ballack last night denied playing a key role in Big Phil Scolari’s sacking.

DAILY MAIL: Eduardo marked his return to Arsenal’s first team a year after the horror injury which threatened his career by scoring twice in his side’s FA Cup victory over Cardiff last night. Also: England centre Riki Flutey signed for French club Brive yesterday at the start of a cross-channel exodus of Premiership rugby internationals.

DAILY EXPRESS: The tears flowed for Eduardo at the Emirates last night as he marked his first Arsenal appearance in a year with the opening goal as the hosts outclassed Cardiff in their fourth-round replay. Also: Paul Collingwood’s third Test century in nine innings drove England into a position of total dominance in the third Test.

THE TIMES: England were in a dominant position after two days of the third Test at the Antigua Recreation Ground yesterday. Also: Some storylines in sport are simply meant to be.

DAILY TELEGRAPH: The Rugby Football Union are to consider setting up an emergency fund to help Premiership clubs fight off raids on elite England players by cash-rich French clubs. Also: Fifty-one weeks ago, Eduardo was lifted into a Birmingham hospital bed, his left leg mangled, his career in doubt.

THE GUARDIAN: Against strangely becalmed opponents this was the type of smooth and slick display with decisive end product that Arsenal have often struggled to find this season. Also: Manchester City are still hoping to persuade John Terry to join them in what would be one of the more astounding transfers of modern times.

THE INDEPENDENT: Last night, Arsene Wenger was given some of the evidence he needs to feel the rest of the season could be fruitful. Also: Michael Ballack has defended himself against accusations that he was part of a plot to oust Luiz Felipe Scolari, who was sacked as Chelsea manager eight days ago.

>>Here’s a round-up of the latest FA Cup 2008/2009 outright betting prices at BoyleSports.com.

13/8 Man United
10/3 Chelsea
4/1 Arsenal
5/1 Everton
22/1 West Ham
25/1 Fulham
25/1 Blackburn
40/1 Hull
40/1 Middlesbrough
90/1 Sheff Utd
90/1 Swansea
90/1 Burnley
125/1 Coventry

For more on popular Irish bookie BoyleSports check out the latest reviews and ratings:

>>BookieLabRat.com BoyleSports Bookmaker Review
>>GoonersGuide.com Review & Rating of BoyleSports

Here’s the latest contribution to the BookieLabRat.com site from the team at popular US-friendly online sportsbook Bodog.

The NBA All-Star Game marks the unofficial halfway point of the regular season. College hoops doesn’t have the same kind of milestone event, but you know things are getting serious when the bracketologists start coming out with their projections for who will get invited to the NCAA Tournament. Maybe the Selection Committee should look at the following Top 10 ATS stats as well as RPI and SOS.

NCAAB

1. Weber State: 15-5
2. Princeton: 9-3
3. Kansas: 14-5
4. George Mason: 14-5-1
4. The Citadel: 14-5-1
6. Auburn: 13-5
7. Denver: 14-6
8. St. Peter’s: 12-5-1
9. Central Florida: 13-6
10. Pittsburgh: 13-6-1

NBA

1. Orlando: 33-17-1
2. Cleveland: 33-18
3. Oklahoma City: 33-20
4. Milwaukee: 31-22-2
5. Charlotte: 30-22
6. New York: 30-22
7. Denver: 30-22-1
8. Boston: 31-24
9. Atlanta: 28-24
10. Indiana: 28-24-2

NBA: Boston at Phoenix

US Airways Center, Phoenix
Sunday, 2:30 p.m. ET, ABC
Boston: 44-11 SU, 31-24- ATS, Under 29-25-1
Phoenix: 28-23 SU, 17-31-2 ATS, Over 28-22

The Suns have three games to play between now and Sunday, including a home-and-home with the Los Angeles Clippers, but they should still be in good form after taking the extended break and hosting the All-Star Game. Those three games will also give them some time to get used to what new coach Alvin Gentry has up his sleeve – a return to former coach Mike D’Antoni’s methods. Gentry was the last connection with D’Antoni’s coaching staff after Terry Porter was brought in during the offseason. Rumors at press time had the Suns prepared to keep Amare Stoudemire and Shaquille O’Neal and give Gentry a chance to make it work. Make sure to visit Bodog Sportsbook for the freshest NBA odds on this and every matchup.

NCAAB: Washington at UCLA

Pauley Pavilion, Los Angeles
Thursday, 11:00 p.m. ET
Washington: 19-6 SU, 15-8 ATS, Over 14-8
UCLA: 19-6 SU, 12-12 ATS, Over 16-8

The Huskies are on top of the Pacific-10 standings at 10-3, with the Bruins trailing by 1.5 games at 8-4. When these two teams met last month in Seattle, the home side pulled away in the second half to win 86-75 as a 2-point chalk. And yet it’s UCLA at No. 20 in the polls and Washington two spots behind. Home court is key; the Bruins are 14-1 SU and 8-6 ATS at legendary Pauley Pavilion, and they’ll be glad to be back in L.A. after dropping a pair at Arizona (+5) and Arizona State (+1.5). Washington is 5-4 SU and ATS on the road.

College basketball odds in the Bodog Sportsbook.

NBA: L.A. Lakers at Golden State

Oracle Arena, Oakland
Wednesday, 10:30 p.m. ET, ESPN
Los Angeles: 42-10 SU, 27-25 ATS, Over 32-20
Golden State: 19-35 SU, 25-26-3 ATS, Over 29-25

Just like last year, the Lakers are doing just fine without injured Andrew Bynum, going 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS without their young prodigy at center. Having a full season with Pau Gasol and Trevor Ariza in the fold makes a huge difference. Golden State knows all about injuries, having their season washed away before it even began, but the Warriors are 6-5 SU and 7-2-2 ATS with Monta Ellis back in the lineup. They should also have Andris Biedrins at center for this matchup after missing three games with a sprained ankle.

NBA Basketball lines at Bodog.

Don’t Miss

NBA: San Antonio at N.Y. Knicks (Tuesday, 7:30 p.m.)
NCAAB: North Carolina State at North Carolina (Wednesday, 8:00 p.m.)
NCAAB: Duke at St. John’s (Thursday, 7:00 p.m.)
NBA: San Antonio at Detroit (Thursday, 8:00 p.m.)
NBA: Dallas at Houston (Friday, 8:00 p.m.)
NCAAB: Marquette at Georgetown (Saturday, 2:00 p.m.)
NCAAB: Oklahoma at Texas (Saturday, 9:00 p.m.)

For more on Bodog Sportsbook, check out the latest reviews for February here at:

>>BookieLabRat.com Bodog Sports Review
>>GoonersGuide.com Sportsbook Review of Bodog

>>Compare Bodog to other online sportsbooks popular with US based bettors
 

Top UK Bookmakers Ladbrokes have cut the odds on Wales beating England this weekend after taking a £20,000 bet on the reigning RBS 6 Nations champions.

Warren Gatland’s men were odds-on at 2/9 with Ladbrokes to follow up last season’s victory at Twickenham with a win on home soil in Cardiff. But the firm are now 1/5 after the punter in Northern Ireland served notice of his confidence with the whopping wager.

Spokesman Robin Hutchison: “Confidence is very high in the valleys at the moment and punters are licking the lips about the prospect of another Welsh victory. Even at such short prices as 2/9 or 1/5 wagers like this will take their toll alongside the thousands of tenners and twenties we are taking in Welsh shops.”

“We don’t know if the punter is a Welshman living in Northern Ireland or a super confident local who thinks they’re a good thing.”

The bet is the biggest Ladbrokes have laid on any of the matches so far in the tournament, with the internet customer standing to win nearly £4,500.

Hutchison added: “England flattered to deceive against Italy and we are expecting Wales to take them to the cleaners. Sadly the punters may do the same to us!”

Here’s the latest bet-blurb from the team at Bodog Sport: Bettor’s View: Super February 

I’m still buzzing over Super Bowl XLIII. That might have been the best football game I’ve ever seen – but I’m biased, because I made some money in the end. Everything looks better when the bankroll is growing.

It started before the coin toss. I couldn’t help but to take the over on Jennifer Hudson’s version of The Star-Spangled Banner, even at the chalky price of –210. I personally don’t bet every single Super Bowl prop, but I always take the time to see what’s on the menu, and the total on the length of the national anthem was 2:01 – exactly how long it took Hudson to sing it at the Democratic National Convention. Of course Sunday’s version was going to be longer. It was a more dramatic moment in a much larger venue (Tampa’s Raymond James Stadium, as opposed to Denver’s Pepsi Center).

As for the football itself, I was watching at home with the computer in front of me and the game on the big-screen. Most of my friends are either in the sports media or the handicapping business, so we had a UFC 94 party the night before instead – and what a card that was. But I digress. Sunday was a workday, and I was working the live betting.

This is a great way to make some cash. I stuck with a simple pass/run strategy, expecting the Steelers to use their standard run-heavy conservative approach and the Cardinals to be more creative, passing on running downs and vice-versa. John Madden even suggested this for Arizona during the NBC broadcast. The Cards went a little more pass-heavy than I expected (43 passes, 12 rushes), and in retrospect, I should have bet “pass” more often during the second half as Arizona was fighting from behind. I was just looking for more surprises than Ken Whisenhunt gave us – and how about Pittsburgh’s attempt at the Wildcat? Anyway, I still came out ahead in live betting by a small margin, enough to make it worth playing.

I’ll tell you where I did get burned: the “Will there be a safety?” prop. I bet “No” every year, and I win every year, because the last time it happened was in 1991. I barely had enough money to buy a hamburger back then, let alone gamble. Anyway, as you know, I didn’t win this year, which is a real kick in the pants when you pay –1000. But that’s OK; I’ll continue to bet against the safety and make that back in time. I’m a patient man.

I wasn’t feeling nearly as levelheaded about James Harrison’s 100-yard interception return for a touchdown at the end of the first half. I had Arizona +7 in this game, as did most of my friends. Harrison’s TD put Pittsburgh up 17-7 just when it looked like the Cardinals would at least tie the game 10-10, being on the Steelers 1-yard line and all. If I hadn’t been stunned about the enormity of the return, I might have thrown something I shouldn’t have at the big-screen. Like my computer.

Things turned out all right in the end, although I could have done without the last-minute Steelers win. I had the Cardinals on the moneyline at +170. I also bet the over on the total of 47, so it was a wash, but I would have made money if it had gone the other way. And being a bit of a Kurt Warner fan (so undervalued for so many years), I admit I was rooting for the Cards. At least Warner went over 265.5 passing yards.

Not a bad way to start the month. Now it’s time for some basketball, and I’m like a kid at a candy store with all the hoops games on the sked. The Lakers and Celtics are up this week; I’ll be on that one for sure, although I’m going to be waiting to see how Kevin Garnett is feeling before the game. Seems he didn’t take his flu shot this year. What?! I paid $30 for mine. Is he having trouble making ends meet? I could have loaned him the money until his next paycheck comes in.

I’m also going hard on NASCAR betting in February. And I’m betting Toyota early and often. I’m not making any grand statement about the quality of American cars here; I just don’t expect very many people in the sport’s betting demographic to put their money on a Japanese automaker. If I’m wrong, I’ll be happy to jump ship to Chevrolet next month – if they still exist, of course.