The Sports Bookie Blog

Here’s where popular US sportsbook Bodog think we should all put our money on this week in the way of American sports betting action.  

Congratulations to the Florida Gators on yet another national college football championship. Now it’s time to turn things over to the pros. The NFL enters its Conference Round this week; two Wild Card teams are within one game of reaching the Super Bowl. These two matchups lead our Top 5 list of games to bet on this week – all times are Eastern, and current lines are available at Bodog Sportsbook.

1. NFL: Baltimore at Pittsburgh (Sunday, 6:30 p.m.)

The second game of Sunday’s doubleheader features a nasty, nasty rivalry between two AFC North teams. The visiting Ravens (13-5 SU, 14-4 ATS) dropped both their games against the Steelers (13-4 SU, 10-7 ATS) during the regular season; Week 4 saw Baltimore (+6) take Pittsburgh to overtime at Heinz Field before losing 23-20, while the Steelers (+3) came back to take the Week 15 rematch 13-9 at M&T Bank Stadium. The Ravens were 5-3 SU and 6-2 ATS in their previous eight meetings with Pittsburgh.

2. NFL: Philadelphia at Arizona (Sunday, 3:00 p.m.)

The Cardinals (11-7 SU and ATS) are the home team in this matchup as kings of the NFC West, but they’ll be underdogs Sunday versus the Eagles (11-6-1 SU, 12-6 ATS), who advanced to the Conference Round by eliminating the defending champion New York Giants. However, if the Cards play the way they have in playoff victories over Atlanta (+1.5) and Carolina (-10), the sky’s the limit for Kurt Warner and company. Philadelphia disposed of the Giants (-4) in the Divisional Round despite two picks by Donovan McNabb and a safety for intentional grounding in the end zone. The Eagles were much better, however, in their 48-20 victory over the Cards (+3) in Week 13 at the Linc.

NFL odds in the Bodog Sportsbook.

3. NBA: L.A. Lakers at San Antonio (Wednesday, 9:00 p.m.)

That Christmas Day win by the Lakers (29-6 SU, 16-19 ATS) over the Boston Celtics keeps looking better and better. While the Celts stumble, L.A. is 5-1 SU (3-3 ATS) since the holidays. The Spurs (24-12 SU, 17-18-1 ATS) are pretty hot themselves of late at 9-2 SU and 5-5-1 ATS in their last 11, although their level of competition during that stretch was rather shaky: just three winning teams. It’s not known whether Lamar Odom (bruised knee) will play in this game, although he does plan on making the trip to San Antonio. The Spurs are healthy for their first rematch with the Lakers since last year’s playoffs – Los Angeles beat San Antonio in five games at the Western finals.

4. NCAAB: Georgetown at Duke (Saturday, 1:30 p.m.)

Non-conference games don’t get much bigger than this until March Madness. The Hoyas (11-3 SU, 5-5 ATS) are one of the best teams in the Big East, which is trying to unseat the ACC as the top conference in Division I. However, the Blue Devils (14-1 SU, 8-6 ATS) are off to another fast start that includes wins over Purdue (-2) and Xavier (+6). Duke is No. 1 on the Pomeroy efficiency charts and No. 2 on the AP poll, while Georgetown holds down the No. 8 spot in the Pomeroy rankings and No. 9 with AP. Watch for Duke’s outstanding defense to set the tone in a game where neither club figures to provide much offense from beyond the arc.

5. NHL: Montreal at Boston (Tuesday, 7:00 p.m.)

Versus has the television coverage in the United States (RDS in francophone Canada) for the never-ending struggle between the 25-10-6 Canadiens (16-25 ATS, minus-1.66 units) and the 31-7-4 Bruins (32-9 ATS, 35.34 units). Boston is by far the No. 1 team against the puckline; the B’s are best in the league in goals scored at 3.62 per game, and they’re best in goals against at 2.14 per game. That’s a difficult combination to beat. The Habs have won their last four in a row with Jaroslav Halak in net instead of Carey Price, who remains day-to-day with a lower-body injury. Montreal outscored the opposition 23-14 in those four games.

NHL betting in the Bodog Sportsbook.
 
Honorable Mentions

NBA: New Orleans at Cleveland (Friday, 8:00 p.m.)
NCAAB: Notre Dame at Syracuse (Saturday, 12:00 p.m.)
NHL: Philadelphia at Tampa Bay (Thursday, 7:30 p.m.)
Soccer: Wigan at Manchester United (Wednesday, 3:00 p.m.)
MMA: Dan Henderson vs. Rich Franklin, UFC 93 (PPV at 10:00 p.m.)

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Here’s what the team at Bodog Sports think you’ll be betting on this week… and we think they’re probably right!

What’ll it be this week? We’ve got a Rays-Phillies World Series, the halfway point of the NFL season, college football matchups with major title implications, a fresh sheet of hockey games – it’s Oktoberfest for handicappers. And just think: NBA action starts next week.

These are the Top 5 games of the week (all times Eastern):

1. NCAAF: No. 3 Penn State at No. 9 Ohio State (Saturday, 8:00 p.m.)

The college gridiron takes the spotlight away from the pros, at least for one week. The Nittany Lions (8-0 SU, 5-1-1 ATS) are playing like they’re the best team in the nation, destroying opponents by an average score of 45-12. Ohio State (7-1 SU, 2-5 ATS) only has the loss to USC on the record, but the Buckeyes were having trouble getting their offense going until last week’s 45-7 thrashing of Michigan State (+3.5 at home). Beanie Wells ran 31 times for 140 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Stopping him will stop the Buckeyes.

Ohio State easily won the last two meetings SU and ATS. The home team is 8-2 SU and 9-1 ATS over the past 10 years.

2. NCAAF: No. 6 Oklahoma State at No. 1 Texas (Saturday, 3:30 p.m.)

Over in the Big 12, the No. 1 Longhorns have yet to be corralled at 7-0 SU and ATS. But the rival Cowboys have also stormed up the rankings at 7-0 SU and 6-0 ATS. They can’t both get paid on Saturday. Texas has won every single game between these two clubs this past decade, going 7-3 ATS. That’s old news now, though. OSU has flourished this year under coach Mike Gundy, and his team has betting value as the lesser hyped of the two parties involved. ‘Pokes QB Zac Robinson (14 TDs, four INTs) is not far behind Heisman frontrunner Colt McCoy (19 TDs, three INTs) in production.

3. NFL: N.Y. Giants at Pittsburgh (Sunday, 4:15 p.m.)

Here’s a classic East Coast slugfest with the added bonus of a 50-50 chance of rain at press time. The Giants lead the NFC East at 5-1 (4-2 ATS), while the Steelers are atop the AFC North at the same 5-1 (3-3 ATS). That’s about where the similarities end. The Giants are running one of the best offenses in the NFL, while Pittsburgh has relied on its defense to keep the team in the game. New York is playing at a higher level overall; those three points seem like a gift, even at –125 juice. But buyer beware: The Steelers are 9-2 SU and 7-4 ATS in their last 11 at home.

4. MLB: World Series Game 1; Philadelphia at Tampa Bay (Wednesday, 8:00 p.m.)

The entire MLB postseason has been one big moneymaking opportunity for handicappers – simply put, there’s a lot of dumb money out there right now waiting to be scooped up. Most of the interest in this series will be regional, as fans of the Phillies and Rays bet on their own teams. Philadelphia has made the biggest playoff profit up to this point at 7-2 and 5.83 units in the black. Tampa Bay is 7-4 with 2.69 units. The Rays took two of three interleague games from Philly back in 2006 but haven’t played since. Both clubs are –105 on the moneyline for Wednesday’s matchup with southpaws Cole Hamels and Scott Kazmir on the mound.

5. MMA: Anderson Silva vs. Patrick Cote, UFC 90 (Saturday, PPV starts at 10:00 p.m.)

Cote might be gone in 60 seconds. Silva is undefeated in the Octagon at 7-0, dispatching four of his opponents in the first round, most recently James Irvin in July with a devastating KO punch at 1:01. The UFC’s middleweight champion is considered the best pound-for-pound fighter in the world; Silva is a titanic –650 favorite in this bout. Cote has been training in Montreal with Georges St. Pierre and is 4-0 in UFC since appearing in The Ultimate Fighter 4.

Honorable Mentions:

NFL: Tampa Bay at Dallas (Sunday, 1:00 p.m.)
NCAAF: No. 7 Georgia at No. 13 LSU (Saturday, 3:30 p.m.)
NHL: Boston at Buffalo (Tuesday, 7:05 p.m.)
NASCAR: Pep Boys Auto 500 at Atlanta Motor Speedway (Sunday, 1 p.m.)

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>>Review and Rating of Bodog Sportsbook (GoonersGuide.com)
>>Visit Bodog Sports for a look around 
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Here’s the latest on baseball betting from the team at BodogLife.com. We thought we’d share it.

Angels vs. Red Sox

One team has the best record in baseball, the other is the defending World Series champion. It’s a shame this is only a five-game series.

Series Breakdown:
These two teams are very similar in terms of their makeup. Both teams have a strong defense to back up solid pitching staffs. The bullpens for both teams are also extremely talented with two of the game’s premier closers in “Little Papi” and K-Rod. You can run down the numbers from the regular season and try to find an edge for this team or the other, but the bottom line is that these two teams are probably No. 1 and No. 2 in baseball no matter how you look at it. Even though the Sox swept the Angels in the postseason last year, this year might be different: The Angels have beaten the Red Sox eight of nine times this season. Add to the Angels Mark Teixeira and the record-breaking season K-Rod is putting together, then subtract Hall of Fame hitter Manny Ramirez from the Red Sox lineup, and you have an Angels team that is as ready as they have ever been to knock off the World Series champs. This one should be a manager’s duel and a dandy to watch.

Rays vs. White Sox or Twins

The Tampa Bay Rays wait patiently as the winner of the one-game playoff and 163 games of the regular season to see whether it will be the White Sox or the Twins they play on Thursday.

Series Breakdown:
Either way you look at it, the Rays will be the favorite, as the bullpens for both the White Sox and the Twins have been shaky at best. The Swiss cheese White Sox defense could haunt them if they make it past the Twins. On the other hand, the Twins have put together an impressive late-season spurt, including a dramatic sweep of the White Sox, to put themselves in position to get into the postseason. One thing is for sure, whichever team emerges will have a tired pitching staff to face the Rays; that said, that team will have one or two playoff-type games under its belt heading into Thursday. Momentum and emotion can be tricky factors in the game of baseball. People have been expecting the Rays to crack all season long, and they haven’t. The question is, will this postseason be the time for the young Rays to establish their legacy in the shrines of baseball?    

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With the NFL regular season now trucking along nicely and the MLB playoffs looming, sports bettors ought to be armed with more than a wing and a prayer when looking for that big win. Here are some tips from the team at BodogLife.com (a popular online sportsbook) to help fatten your wallet:

Look for value: A lot of time teams or players sneak in under the radar when odds are being set. This is especially true in sports like golf & racing. Always look for value, the bettor’s real best friend.

Jump on bad lines: If you spot what you believe to be a bad line get your money on it right away. If a line truly is bad it won’t be that way for very long
Keep up-to-date on your sports news: If a big player gets injured and you make your bets without knowing about it you could make some really bad bets. Instead of wasting time on Facebook check latest news hourly!

Be trendy: Don’t listen to your buddy who says trends are a load of B.S. If trends were really garbage people wouldn’t use up hordes of time compiling them, now would they?

Don’t bet on “your” teams: Make a list of your favorite teams and avoid betting on them. Most fans either overvalue or undervalue their teams and their bankroll ends up paying the price. No, your team isn’t really that good!

Don’t play huge parlays: Don’t be one of those idiots who tries to cash in on the big time by playing a 12-team parlay which is worth tens of thousands of dollars. You’d be better off just lighting your money on fire, because either way you’re getting burned.

Make your bets early: Don’t wait til two minutes before kickoff or tipoff or puck drop before making your bets. Some of the best lines available are the early lines, & even if they’re not you don’t want to be rushing to get your bets in & accidentally bet on the wrong team.

Manage your money properly: If your bankroll consists of $100 don’t be making $25 bets. The size of your bets should be determined by the size of your bankroll, not by the odds or how much of a “lock” you think a game is.

There’s no such thing as a “lock”: The words “lock” or “guaranteed” should never be uttered when it comes to betting. The only thing that is a “lock” is that you won’t win every game you bet on.

Pace yourself: Don’t make a deposit in your betting account and then immediately wager every single dollar on that night’s game. You’re not going to get rich overnight, so don’t bother trying. Want to try out these theories? Throw down in the Bodog Sportsbook today!

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MLB Betting Odds - Los Angeles Dodgers at Philadelphia Phillies (Aug 22-25)

For the best odds on online baseball betting, make sure to visit the Pinnacle Sportsbook before the series between the Phillies and Dodgers gets underway on Friday.

The Los Angeles Dodgers (64-60, -4.13 units) look to continue their dominance of the Philadelphia Phillies (66-58, -4.18 units) when the teams meet this weekend at Citizens Bank Park, and you can get 60% better MLB betting lines at PinnacleSports.com, offering 8 cent moneylines and 10 cent runlines.

The Brewers won 16 of their first 24 games after the All-Star break, and led the NL wild-card race going into this week by three games over their division rival St. Louis Cardinals. Milwaukee is proving itself this season by winning on the road; after going 32-49 away from home last year, the Brewers are 32-28 on the road this season.

The Dodgers swept the Phillies in their four-game set last week at Dodger Stadium, winning 3-1 on August 14 as -117 home favourites at the Pinnacle Sportsbook. Hiroki Kuroda allowed only one run over seven innings to earn the win for Los Angeles, as the game played under the 8.5-run total.

Lefthander Clayton Kershaw (2-3, 3.59 ERA) gets the ball for the Dodgers in Game 1, while the Phillies counter with Kyle Kendrick (10-7, 5.01 ERA). Kershaw is 1-0 with a 2.37 ERA over his last three starts, which bodes well for Los Angeles punters considering Kendrick’s last few outings. The Phillies righthander has a 9.00 ERA in his last three trips to the hill.

The starters have not yet been announced for Saturday’s Game 2, but it’s Kuroda (7-8, 3.68 ERA) against Phillies righty Joe Blanton (6-12, 4.79 ERA) for Sunday’s showdown. Kuroda is undefeated over his last three trips to the hill with a sparkling 1.21 ERA, as Blanton heads into the game with a 1-0 record and stellar 2.37 ERA in the month of August.

Both teams enter the pivotal series with injury trouble. Dodgers’ second baseman Jeff Kent is dealing with a sore left foot, and Andruw Jones is on the 15-day disabled list with patellar tendonitis in his knee. Phillies’ third baseman Pedro Feliz is on the 15-day DL with a bulging disc in his back, while setup man Tom Gordon remains sidelined with inflammation in his right elbow.

The series finale is set for Monday night at 7:05 PM EST. The starting pitchers have not yet been announced.

Check back at Pinnacle Sports betting for updated odds on this and every other MLB series.

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-104 MLB betting on moneylines c.102% and 8 cents runllines give punters up to 60% better online baseball betting odds. PinnacleSports.com offers commission-free fixed odds online sports betting with exchange style pricing, as well as the web’s highest guaranteed liquidity and fastest payouts.

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Mike Maus

SECOND HALF SURGES

By Jim Feist

The first half of the 2007 baseball season is in the books. There were surprising winners, such as the Brewers and Indians, a surprising managerial resignation in Seattle (Mike Hargrove), and some surprising flops with the Cardinals, White Sox and Yankees.

With the surprises out of the way, here’s a look at some teams that might be active at the trading deadline and primed to make a second half surge.

Cubs: The first week of June the Cubs were a bit of a laughingstock at 22-31. After all, they were the biggest free agent spenders, bringing in Alfonso Soriano, manager Lou Piniella, and pitchers Jason Marquis and Ted Lilly. Hopes were high, but they struggled badly out of the gate.

At the mid-point Chicago was 40-40, playing much better baseball. Piniella brought up kids from the minor leagues like Felix Pie and Angel Paganto to inject some speed into the order, and continued shuffling what had been a disastrous bullpen. His moves paid of, as the Cubs went 18-9 to get to .500. The pen still needs arms, so don’t be surprised if they shop outfielder Jacque Jones for some relief help.

Mariners: It isn’t often you find coaches leaving in the middle of a season with a winning record, but that’s the case in Seattle. Manager Mike Hargrove has had enough and simply walked away. It was unusual in that the Mariners have been hot, winning 10 of 11 games. John McLaren, the bench coach under Hargrove, took over as the Mariners’ new skipper last week.

The good news for the new manager is that this team is playing well, hot on the heels of the first place Angels in the AL West and alive for a Wild Card spot. The offense is balanced and third in the AL in hitting, while the pitching has gotten a huge boost from young Felix Hernandez and a deep bullpen. Sports bettors take note: No team has been better against southpaws, going 15-6.

Twins: It was expected to be a rebuilding year for the young Twins, who saw the retirement of starter Brad Radke and the loss of young ace lefty Francisco Liriano, who is recovering from surgery and won’t be able to pitch until 2008. When you looked at the starting rotation in April (Ramon Ortiz, Sidney Ponson) you saw that this team had no chance in 2007.

Yet, the payroll strapped Twins continue to impress and overachieve. Ace Johan Santana has lights-out stuff, Carlos Silva and Boof Bonser have thrown well, along with young Scott Baker. The offense is productive despite several injuries and they are second in the AL in steals.

D-Backs: How is Arizona doing it? Fifth-worst in the NL in runs scored, third-worst in batting average. Ahh, pitching, of course. Veteran Randy Johnson was not brought in to be the savior, which is a good thing. He’s battled injuries, missed several starts and has been basically a 5-6 inning starter.

Yet, he’s been very effective in limited action, Brandon Webb is an ace, while Micah Owings and a deep bullpen anchor a staff that is fifth in the NL in pitching. With all that pitching, notice that the D-Backs started 25-13 under the total on the road.

Angels: Here’s a team that’s not going to go away. Third in the AL in pitching, a great bullpen, first in the American League in hitting and steals. Throw in aggressive manager Mike Scioscia and a loaded farm system, and the Angels have plenty of pieces in place for a strong second half.

Vladimir Guerrero and newcomer Gary Matthews Jr. can slug the ball, while four players have over 9 steals in Matthews, Chone Figgins, Reggie Willits and Orlando Cabrera. The rotation has four talented horses in veterans John Lackey and Kelvim Escobar, and kids Jered Weaver and Ervin Santana.

A’s: The AL West has been very competitive in 2007, but Oakland has a recent history of second half surges. They need to upgrade an offense that is third-worst in the AL in runs. Yet, if pitching is the key to second half surges, the A’s are loaded, ranked No. 1 in the AL, led by ace Dan Haren, Chad Gaudin and Joe Blanton. While most teams will be shopping for pitching before the trade deadline, the A’s will be looking for bats and have arms to deal, a nice plus.

RELATED LINKS :

Get Jim Feist’s free ML Baseball picks at Gooners Guide to Betting.

You can read more from Jim Feist - and get access to his premium paid sports betting picks at his site ::

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by SCOTT SPREITZER

One of the hidden keys for successfully handicapping major league baseball is having a knack for evaluating bullpens. Far too many Las Vegas wagerers focus only on newspaper standings and starting pitchers when making their selections. You can’t beat baseball that way. You’ve got to think about all nine innings, not just the first six or seven…thank you very much Sparky Anderson.

Building a good bullpen is much more difficult than most major league general managers realize. We’ve seen many stories in past years where teams spent big bucks on an ace reliever just to find out that he can’t get anybody out any more. On the other side of the coin, many teams have found some relative unknown who suddenly thrives in the closer role for pennies on the dollar. You just never know.

Last year Cincinnati traded Austin Kearns to Washington for some long relievers on the mistaken assumption that bottom of the roster guys in a pitcher’s park would help out a team in a hitter’s park. The Reds fancied themselves divisional contenders (which they were only because the NL Central was a horrible division), and they imagined that shoring up a weak bullpen would put them over the top. The trade didn’t have any positive impact. This season, the Reds currently rank 24th in the majors in bullpen ERA. And, they probably wouldn’t mind having Kearns back on their roster either. Dumb trade.

Even the statistical publishing industry has had troubles getting a fix on what works and what doesn’t. The only advice from those publications has been along the lines of “don’t throw money at the problem because you can probably solve it cheaply. Just keep trying people until something works”. That doesn’t give anyone confidence, does it?

I know several bettors who have lost their confidence because they keep getting victimized by bad bullpens. Nothing demoralizes dog players more than watching a lead disappear in the eighth or ninth inning. Many Las Vegas professionals focus on underdogs. Games like this are just a punch to the gut. Take a few too many of those, and you lose the taste for gambling. You know what? Those aren’t really bad beats. Good handicappers should know to avoid betting on teams with shaky bullpens!

Even though there’s some mystery when it comes to building a successful bullpen, it’s just not that hard to recognize when it’s finally in place. That’s all handicappers have to do! Now that we’re almost three months into the season, bullpen earned run averages by themselves give you a very good sense of where everyone stands in this key category.

I’ve rated the 2007 bullpens for you based on their staff ERA’s heading into this past weekend. This deep into the season, the numbers are very meaningful. Teams with low bullpen ERA’s have a cast of contributors who are all thriving in their roles. Teams with high ERA’s still haven’t figured things out yet, and will still be prone to meltdowns once the starting pitcher has left the game. I’ll run through the ratings for you, and offer up some quick strategy advice for each group.

BEST BULLPENS
San Diego, Boston, the LA Dodgers, Toronto, Texas, Minnesota, San Francisco, Milwaukee, Atlanta, and Seattle, all have bullpen ERA’s at 3.62 or lower this season. They represent the top third of the majors, and have established themselves as relatively trustworthy almost three months into the season.

There are some surprises on the list to be sure. The Texas bullpen has been the lone bright spot on a bad team. It’s the starting rotation that’s ruined the Ranger season. Toronto’s has been better than people realize too. Remember that Texas and Toronto pitch in the AL with the designated hitter, and play in strong divisions.

Strategies for this group:
*When two teams play each other, look to take the UNDER unless very bad starting pitchers are in the mix.

*When any of these teams is starting a quality pitcher, you can back him with confidence because the bullpen will be able to seal the deal on most occasions.

*Whenever these teams are playing games in pitcher’s parks, the tendencies toward success or Unders will be magnified because the bullpen will perform even better than their full season numbers. Play accordingly.

MIDDLE RELIEVERS
Seattle, the NY Mets, Arizona, the LA Angels, Washington, Cleveland, the NY Yankees, Oakland, the Chicago Cubs, Florida, St. Louis, Colorado, and Kansas City, all have ERA’s in the 3.60 to 4.34 range. That’s relatively generic. I’ve listed the teams from best to worst within this group, so Seattle and the Mets are close to being very good, while the bottom three are close to being bad. It’s best to just think of this grouping as “no harm no foul” in the big picture.

Strategies for this group:
*Focus on the offenses and the starting pitchers when making your side and total decisions. These bullpens aren’t doing much to influence results this year one way or the other. They’ll hold their share of leads. They’ll blow their share of saves. It all comes out in the wash.

*Pay attention to injuries with this group. If a team loses a key player, they could very easily fall down into the worst group that you’re about to study. If a star player comes back from a layoff, he could lift any of these teams up to the elite group.

*There’s no reason to shy away from quality starters on these teams out of fear for the bullpen. You’ll lose some heartbreakers. But, you’ll win some too.

WORST RELIEVERS
Clocking in at 4.86 or worse are Houston, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, Detroit, Baltimore, Tampa Bay, and the Chicago White Sox. It’s surprising to see Detroit on the list, as pitching was a strength during their AL championship run last year. This season, a fantastic offense has helped hide this developing weakness.

Strategies for this group:
*Look to take the OVER whenever teams in this group play each other, and almost any time that the teams are playing in good hitter’s parks. A few of these teams will be Over machines this summer in the warm weather.

*Be very careful laying big odds with a starting pitcher on any of these teams. He could throw a gem but still get victimized by a bad bullpen.

*If any of these teams is starting a poor pitcher, it’s a go against and/or an OVER situation. That poor starter will allow a bunch of runs, then the kerosene kids will come in and make it worse.

It’s very important that you incorporate bullpens into your handicapping approach. As long as you’re thinking about all nine innings of a game rather than just what the starting pitchers will do, you will be in position to grind out a steady profit. Remember that Las Vegas lines are based on public perceptions, and the public pays too little attention to bullpens.

RELATED LINK :
Scott is one of the top US sports handicappers online today - and you can read more of Scott’s editorials and betting picks here :

by DAVE COKIN

An overlooked aspect of baseball is defense, but it is an extremely important facet of the game. The old adage “being strong up the middle” is very significant, having a strong defensive catcher, shortstop and center fielder. Shortstops with above-average range can get to grounders and turn them into double plays. Shortstops that lack range won’t get to those balls, and what happens? They end up as singles, a big difference from a double play, especially if you’re the guy on the mound!

For instance, the Florida Marlins are the worst defensive team in baseball. Notice that the Marlins started 17-20 as a favorite, talk about a money-burner! You can examine their overall hitting stats, which are decent, but don’t overlook poor defense. Bad defense can mean more runs and in the right scenario: More singles instead of double plays, more unearned runs because of errors, and more games over the total.

It’s no surprise those same Marlins are 36-30 over the total, including 19-11 over at home. Over the weekend I had a play on a Marlins total with this in mind. In my analysis of the Florida/Kansas City game I wrote, “Everything sets up pretty well for a high scoring game here. The Marlins continues to hit the ball well and play lousy defense, which is always a plus when looking for an Over. And the Royals are suddenly bopping the ball, with rookie sensation Alex Gordon starting to finally figure things out after a couple of really rough months.

“Starting pitching is also a part of this call. Rookie Van Den Hurk has had a couple of nice outings but when he’s been off, it’s been really ugly. KC’s Jorge De La Rosa’s control problems have started resurfacing the last four starts and that’s a huge red flag for him. Add it all up and the prospects for a high scoring contest here are very strong. I’m on the Marlins and Royals to go Over the Total.”

The Marlins committed 3 more errors in the game, with combined 28 hits and 6 walks. It was over the total by the fifth inning as the Marlins eventually came back and won 9-8 (thanks to their bats, not their gloves).

A couple of other teams that have a brutal combination for overs are the Cincinnati Reds and the Texas Rangers: No pitching and bad defense. The Reds defense is ranked third-worst in the NL while the Rangers are second worst in the AL. In fact, the two teams met over the weekend and all three games sailed over the total with scores of 7-6, 8-4 and 11-4. Bring back the dead ball era to help these guys!

In fact, one of the games I released to my clients as an over, reasoning, “Bronson Arroyo continues to struggle, with his hits to innings pitched ratio simply not getting any better. As for Texas starter Kevin Millwood, he’s been about as bad as it gets for the most part. Two starting pitchers in shabby current form, and a day game in a ballpark that yields big numbers on a constant basis are the recipe for a very big offensive day. The first two games in this series have gone Over, and I see more the of the same here.”

When the dust had settled the teams had combined for 4 errors 20 hits and 15 runs. The Rangers pulled away with four runs in the ninth off one of the NL’s worst bullpens. The Reds had one of their three errors in the inning.

The Tigers look to be a scary team if they can get their pitching healthy, which is likely the case. That’s because the Tigers are tops in offense and third in team defense. Getting the bullpen healthy along with starter Kenny Rogers’ return, and Detroit could come close to having a deadly trifecta of hitting, pitching and defense. Hitting and pitching are the two most examined areas in baseball handicapping, but don’t ignore the subtleties, and importance, of defense.

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