Posts filed under 'US Football'
Hey there – Are you ready for bowl season? 32 games, 19 days.
Top offshore online sportsbook, Bodog, is running a “College Bowl Pick ‘Em Contest”.
Register now and you could win a grand prize of $100,000 by picking all 32 games correctly.
Other prizes include a trip for 2 to NYC for the 2008 NFL Draft, a $2,000 electronics gift card, iPod Touch and Bodog Fantasy Swag.
Sign up to Bodog Fantasy Football before Dec. 20th, and make this your greatest NCAA bowl season ever!
More info on site at Bodog Sports here.
More info on Bodog Sportsbook in a detailed bookie review, here.
(Bodog accepts players from around the world including USA. Sorry, Canadians cannot join Bodog).
December 14th, 2007
Fancy $250 in free bets? What about a $2500 free addition to your betting bankroll?
If you like to bet on US Sports in particular – and are even US based – there is a sportsbook offer that you might want to look at.
Be quick though as the offer only runs until September 11, 2007.
Which sportsbook?
Licenced and operating in Costa Rica, JustBet.com is a privately held sportsbook run by the Tradewinds Group. This bookie has held a good reputation for over 11 years through a range of betting brands. JustBet.com has support systems and payment processes in place to support safe offshore wagers for US bettors.
Endorsed and certified by security watchdog the Offshore Gaming Council since 2000, JustBet.com may be the right betting option for you.
What’s the deal?
Get a 50% first deposit match on all depopsits from $500 to $5000… deposit big – get a big bonus! OK so deposit $500 and get a $250 Free Bet. A $5000 deposit will give you a $2500 Free bet…
…and here’s the fine print:
– For NEW JustBet.com customers only
– You gotta join and deposit by September 11 2007
– Hold on deposit and cash is 90 days (ie you can’t withdraw from your JustBet.com account for 90 days once you take up the bonus offer)
– Must rollover the deposit and cash 7 times before withdrawal (ie if you
– Winnings can be withdrawn after rolling deposit and cash 3 times
Justbet.com also gives you a 10% cash back on your net losses – paid twice annually. This is an unusual and nice to have extra to JustBet.com membership.
>>Read a Sportsbook Review for more info on JustBet.com
September 2nd, 2007
Super Bowl Propositions – The Achilles’ Heel of Square Books
According to USA Today, half of all Americans will wager on the Super Bowl, as a result, 90% of bets on the game are made by novice gamblers. Aware of the opportunity to attract new customers, sportsbooks understandably focus an enormous amount of energy on the biggest game on the sports schedule. The most successful approach to excite these armchair bettors is to offer propositions that promise potentially big returns for a very modest outlay, and those that focus on seemingly random or humorous events.
The problem that books face with this approach is that often just one odds maker is pricing the lines based on variables that he has far less reliable data on than he is used to. These propositions can be the easiest for an educated player to beat and sportsbooks routinely lose money on them. Propositions are a loss-leader for the betting world to tempt new bettors who will end up losing money on one of the more lucrative areas for the bookie. To protect themselves in this unusually vulnerable situation, sportsbooks build in inordinately large margins – typically using a 30 or 40-cent line with low wagering limits – yet will often consider a break-even result a success.
When you wager on a proposition, it’s typically your opinion versus one odds maker. If you know more than that one odds maker, you are going to get the best of it. For Super Bowl XLI, Pinnacle Sportsbook is offering over 200 props with many priced to world beating 15-cent margins, a significant savings versus the 30 to 40-cent lines at other online books.
With this many wagering options and the public betting like mad, it’s not uncommon to see prop lines move on public money alone. At Pinnacle Sportsbetting, there are several professional prop players that will take a contrarian view on our props and bet almost any one that moves more than 20 cents (betting towards the original price). Therefore, the ‘Pinnacle Lean’ is useful for measuring market prices on props as well as on sides and totals. For example, PinnacleSports.com is offering the following prop: ‘Who will score the first TD?’ at Colts -145/Bears +130. This suggests that the no-vig price based on our 15-cent line is -137.5/+137.5. Therefore, you can ‘play the lean’ if you find another book with the Yes at -136.5, or the No at +138.5.
The biggest mistake that players and odds makers make when evaluating props is in not understanding the difference between the median and the mean (average). Most players would assume that the average (total/frequency) is an accurate measure, but the correct way to analyze many of these types of props is to use the median. Looking at a list of theoretical score lengths in ascending order, the median is the middle number:
1, 1, 17, 20 (median), 39, 47, 59
If you assumed before Sunday’s game that these seven scores would occur, and assessed the prop ‘Will the first score be more than 24.5 yards?’ you’d price the ‘No’ knowing the under would hit four out of seven times, making the no-vig price on the ‘No’ -133 or (-4/3*100). Whereas if you took the average it would give you another answer (26.3), and lead you to the very different and misleading conclusion that the over is more likely.
Although this concept is simple and rather obvious, it will pay dividends to anyone who is prepared to spend time calculating the median. The median is useful on all types of props – from ‘length of first rush’ to the ‘longest/shortest’ props (where you use the median result from games for the whole season). In fact, there are two straightforward ways to accurately price these types of props.
First, you’ll want to use as much data as possible. Since the Colts have played 19 games and Chicago has played 18 games, this gives you a much better estimate of a fair mid-point. Secondly, you should also consider adjusting your data for the opponent, perhaps ignoring some data for games that aren’t similar to their Super Bowl opponent. Sharp bettors might only use data where both teams were playing under similar spread scenarios (though this might produce a small sample for the Bears).
Good Luck.
RELATED LINKS :
PinnacleSports are one of the sharpest priced bookmakers online. If you’re betting on the Superbowl then you should check them out.
(Sorry – but due to the US Government having a brain spasm and passing the UIGEA banning online SportsBetting – PinnacleSports does not accept American players)
February 2nd, 2007
PinnacleSports.com, one of the industry’s largest online sports betting operations, has voluntarily pulled out of the US market.
Many companies can not compete with PinnacleSports‘ tight margins where a player would win $94-$96 for every $100 bet on the handicaps compared to the typical odds of $90-$92 at most online bookmakers.
A brief message appeared on the PinnacleSports.com website Thursday morning:
“After careful consideration, Pinnacle Sports have chosen to voluntarily exit the U.S. market. Accordingly, wagers will no longer be accepted from clients within the U.S. as of Thursday, January 11, 2007.
Those clients who are affected will be required to withdraw their balances using the Cashier of their account.
We assure all our clients your balances are available and Pinnacle will continue providing our international clients our same great value. “
PinnacleSports have a sizable European market share (with 40% of their business is believed to be European and Asian based) and will continue to service all other betting regions.
The PinnacleSports website is still online and accepting bets from existing customers – but investigations show that the option ‘United States’ has been withdrawn from the list of eligable countries in the join-up process.
For professional sports bettors, no sports book or bookmaker comes close to the odds on offer at PinnacleSports, and this change will mean a significant number of US based bettors will be looking for betting action elsewhere.
January 11th, 2007
What are players betting at Pinnacle Sports this week?
Here is the inside word from one of the linesmakers …
USC +1 -103 v. Michigan
After UCLA stunned USC and Florida beat Arkansas, both of these former championship contenders had to settle for the Rose Bowl. Michigan’s omission from the title game has caused controversy over the BCS selection process and it appears that regional politics impact who plays in the big game. Michigan was considered the #2 team in three out of four regions, but the South voted strongly in favor of Florida, pushing them up the poll.
We opened the Wolverines at -2 ½ (-105) but have taken twice as many wagers on USC as Michigan, causing the line to creep down. The sharps have mostly steered clear of this game to this point.
Florida +7 ½ -109 v. Ohio State
With a convincing win over Arkansas in the SEC title game, Florida edged out Michigan for the #2 spot in the BCS rankings by just 1/100th of a point. The computer rankings had the two teams tied, but Florida passed Michigan in the Harris Poll and USA Today poll. That was just enough for Florida to earn an invitation to the BCS National Championship Game.
We opened the Buckeyes at -7 (-105), and took a lot of early Ohio State money. The line spiked as high as -9, with twice as many bets on Ohio State as Florida, but a few sharps played the Gators at +8.5 and +9 forcing the line to drift back to +7.5.
——-
Remember that betting at Pinnacle Sports makes sense – they have the sharpest online prices on NCAA football of any of the top 10 bookies.
Be safe, be smart, get the best prices at Pinnacle Sports
December 9th, 2006
What are players betting at Pinnacle Sports this week?
Here is the inside word from one of the linesmakers …
Cleveland +9 -129 v. Pittsburgh
We initially offered Cleveland at +9 (-112). Using this unusual number (instead of +7 ½ at a normal moneyline) helps protect us on teasers, as teasing “large home favorites” is one of the strongest teaser plays you can make.
The opening number of Cleveland at +9 (-112) is equivalent to +8 (-105) using Pinnacle’s point-selling option. While the betting public strongly favors Cleveland by a 15:1 margin, some of the early sharps are playing Pittsburgh.
Indianapolis -1 -112 v. Jacksonville
This game has remained at the current price (-1 -112) since opening. Once again, teaser protection is a concern. While small underdogs are not as dangerous as large home favorites, we would still prefer to minimize damage from these types of plays. Skewing the line this way is an easy way to achieve this. While bettors favor the Colts by a 5:2 margin, the line has not moved. The early sharps have been on both sides of the game, so it’s anyone’s guess where this one is headed.
——-
Remember that betting at Pinnacle Sports makes sense – they have the sharpest online prices on NFL football of any of the top 10 bookies.
Be safe, be smart, get the best prices at Pinnacle Sports
December 9th, 2006
Ben Roethlisberger looks to remain unbeaten in his career against the Cleveland Browns when the Pittsburgh Steelers host their AFC North Division rivals Thursday night.
Roethlisberger attended Findlay High School, which is roughly 125 miles from Cleveland, and was the runner-up for 1999 Mr. Football honors in Ohio. He went on to star at Miami (Ohio), rewriting virtually every school record.
In his career, Roethlisberger has won all four of his starts against the Browns. The last time the teams met was November 19, when Roethlisberger engineered a trio of touchdown drives in the fourth quarter to help Pittsburgh rally for a 24-20 victory.
Roethlisberger overcame a poor start in that contest and completed 25-of-44 passes for 272 yards, two touchdowns and three interceptions. In his career vs. Cleveland, Roethlisberger owns a 63.4 completion percentage and a quarterback rating of 83.1.
Despite winning three of their last four games, the Steelers (5-7) dug themselves too large a hole early this season and have virtually no chance of defending their Super Bowl title. Nine teams in the AFC have a better record than the Steelers.
Cleveland (4-8) is looking to carry momentum from a victory last Sunday.
With injured starting quarterback Charlie Frye watching from the sideline, backup Derek Anderson spearheaded the Browns to a 31-28 overtime triumph over the Kansas City Chiefs.
Anderson, who had played in just one game in his first two seasons, was 12-of-21 for 171 yards, two TDs and an interception. Frye, who suffered a right wrist injury in the first half, is questionable for this contest.
BETTING AT PINNACLESPORTS :
Oddsmakers currently have the Steelers listed as 7-point favorites versus the Browns, while the game’s total is sitting at 33.
| Thu 12/7 |
201 |
Cleveland Browns |
+7 1.980 |
3.850 |
OVER 33 2.000 |
| 05:00 PM |
202 |
Pittsburgh Steelers |
-7 1.943 |
1.317 |
UNDER 33 1.909 |
December 7th, 2006
Rutgers may be going to consecutive bowl games for the first time, but not to the one it wanted.
TEXAS BOWL : RUTGERS vs KANSAS STATE
One day after missing out on a BCS bowl berth because of a triple-overtime defeat, the Scarlet Knights accepted a bid to play Kansas State in the inaugural Texas Bowl on Sunday.
ORANGE BOWL : LOUISVILLE vs WAKE FOREST
Rutgers (10-2) came up just short at West Virginia on Saturday, 41-39 in triple overtime. Had the Scarlet Knights won the game, they would have won the Big East Conference’s automatic BCS bowl bid. Instead, Louisville (11-1) secured the league title and will oppose Wake Forest (11-2) in the Orange Bowl.
GATOR BOWL : WEST VIRGINIA vs GEORGIA TECH
West Virginia (10-2) accepted a spot in the Gator Bowl against Georgia Tech (9-4) on New Year’s Day, relegating Rutgers to the Big East’s third bowl spot, against Kansas State (7-5) in the first Texas Bowl in Houston on December 28.
CAPITAL ONE BOWL : WISCONSIN vs ARKANSAS
Another team surely unhappy about its bowl is No. 6 Wisconsin (11-1). The Badgers tied for second in the Big Ten Conference with Michigan and is ranked higher than half of the BCS teams but has been relegated to the Capital One Bowl against Arkansas (10-2) because three teams from the same league cannot all go to BCS games.
OUTBACK BOWL : PENN STATE vs TENNESSEE
In another Big Ten-SEC clash on January 1, Penn State (8-4) will take on Tennessee (9-3) in the Outback Bowl.
“Tennessee is a great opponent for us,” Penn State coach Joe Paterno said. “They have a great football tradition and a very good team again this year. They played well in a tough league. It’s going to be a challenging game for us.”
COTTON BOWL : NEBRASKA vs AUBURN
Also on January 1, Nebraska (9-4) will play Auburn (10-2) in the Cotton Bowl.
December 5th, 2006
BATON ROUGE, Louisiana (Ticker) – Michigan and Notre Dame apparently will not be staging a rematch in the Rose Bowl.
Baton Rouge television station WAFB reported Thursday that fifth-ranked Louisiana State will play in the Rose Bowl on January 1.
Citing information from a member of the Rose Bowl Board who spoke on the condition of anonymity, the CBS affiliate reports the Tigers will oppose either Michigan or Southern California in the game.
LSU, which went 10-2 in the regular season but finished tied for second in the Southeastern Conference West Division, would become the first SEC team to play in the Rose Bowl since Alabama in 1946.
If second-ranked USC beats UCLA on Saturday, it almost certainly would finish second in the Bowl Championship Series standings and play No. 1 Ohio State in the national championship game in Glendale, Arizona on January 8.
A Trojan victory also would relegate third-ranked Michigan to the Rose Bowl, where it was thought the Wolverines might have to once again face No. 12 Notre Dame, a team they crushed, 47-21, in South Bend on September 16. Like LSU, the Fighting Irish are 10-2, but they also were blown out by USC, 44-24, in Los Angeles last weekend.
December 1st, 2006
BCS National Championship: USC +5 -110 v. Ohio State
Although USC has not actually been selected for the big game yet, we can still trade it at Pinnacle Sports where all bets will be cancelled (and stakes returned) if USC does not play in the Championship game.
Trading for most games falls into recognizable patterns which are defined by the level of interest by different groups, from public to syndicates.
This game is a bit of a puzzle so far, despite the early heavy volume. We have twice as many wagers on Ohio State, but nearly twice as many dollars on USC.
With that type of profile, we would expect the sharps to be on USC.
However, the sharps are split fairly evenly on this game. The heavier volume on the Trojans thus far seems to be just ‘noise’.
The Pinnacle Sports Book also offers reduced juice betting and accepts all North American players so sign-up now with Pinnacle Sportsbook Betting and get wagering today!
December 1st, 2006
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