Posts filed under 'Betting Tutorial'
One look at last season’s English Premier League table will tell you that home teams scored more goals than visiting teams (552 v 349). In fact, ever since the English Football Association formed the first ever football league in 1888, it has always been that way. QED – home teams enjoy a natural advantage over away teams.
This might be stating the obvious, but many bettors fail to understand the importance of Home Field Advantage (HFA). At PinnacleSports.com we use HFA as the basis for much of our odds setting on football. The key to remember is that when a bookmaker sets a line, they are not necessarily trying to predict who will win the game, but rather find the point where they can generate balanced action. The challenge that bettors face is to be more accurate than the bookmaker in estimating the strength of HFA and play to win.
In American Football, there is a 3 point standard value for HFA, based on historical data on home points scored versus away points scored. This figure naturally masks deviations based on team and seasonality, so in pricing future games, odds makers will use the standard 3-point HFA as a guide, but adjust it for game specific factors.
The NFL lends itself easily to HFA measurements because given the ‘closed’ status of the league (absence of relegation) and draft system, there is a fairly level playing field. Such notions do not apply to English football, so despite over a century of raw data, you can be forgiven for not knowing the standard HFA for the English top flight, as no accepted figure exists. This presents opportunities for astute players.
The main reason for this is the level of polarisation that the open league system (based on promotion & relegation) has created. This is particularly important since the start of the Premier League in 1992, when the financial rewards of success have dramatically increased the gap between the haves and have nots.
The Premier League is currently contested by twenty clubs but there have been a total of forty clubs that have played in the top flight since its inception in 1992. However, only seven teams have contested all 15 seasons. Looking at the HFA figures for those sides should provide meaningfully consistent data.
The stats are freely available, and by copying the required data into an Excel spreadsheet, it’s a fairly simple task to arrive at a basic figure for HFA using the following calculation: 
For example, in the 2006/07 season, Manchester United’s HFA would calculate as follows; 46 (goals for) minus 12 (goals against) for a goal difference of 34 divided by 19 games played at Old Trafford = 34/19 = 1.79
The table below gives the HFA advantage for the seven ever-present Premier League teams:
The theory behind HFA is to find value for example by either backing the home team when the Asian handicap is less than their HFA, or betting the visiting team when the Asian handicap exceeds the HFA.
Dedicated players may seek to find an even greater edge by refining their calculations to see what influence any number of factors might have on HFA for a particular team, division or domestic league. They might apply a filter so that only home games during a specific period are considered such as over the festive season, or against teams with a higher/lower league position, or teams newly promoted to the Premiership etc. etc. The possibilities are endless.
It is with these various refinements in subjective areas that astute players stay one step ahead of the bookmaker to reap maximum returns. Additional known influences to consider include:
Referees & Home Crowds
Harvard research assistant, Ryan Boyko studied 5,000 Premiership games from 1992 to 2006, to discern any officiating bias and the influence of home crowds. The data suggested that for every additional 10,000 people attending, home team advantage increased by 0.1 goals. Additionally, his study proved what many football fans already suspect, that home teams are likely to receive more penalties, but crucially, this is more likely with inexperienced referees. So building referee profiles can clearly be a very telling refinement for HFA figures.
Seasonality & Games of Special Significance
HFA is anecdotally shown to increase for important games, including local Derbies, which logically attract high attendances and increased fervour. Look for anything that might raise the level of intensity such as emotive local stories, important club anniversaries or memorials for players/managers/significant events.
Breaking News & Injuries
Paying attention to team news is critically important. This process should continue right up until kick-off, with a surprising number of players injured during warm-up.
Recent Form
Confidence breeds success, so it is advisable to build in a value for recent form, though it is open for debate as to what constitutes a significant winning or losing run.
New Stadiums
A degree of home field advantage is derived from familiarity. That element is greatly devalued when home teams are playing in a new stadium as Arsenal did last season at the Emirates Stadium. Judging the ‘bedding in’ period is an important judgement to make.
Further areas to consider would include:
Weather
Managerial Uncertainty
Analysing HFA in conjunction with lateral thinking can give bettors an edge, but only in conjunction with low commission betting, at sportsbooks such as PinnacleSports.com.
Why is a Bookmaker telling me this?
PinnacleSports.com’s philosophy is that if we can improve the sophistication of players everywhere, more bettors will recognize the benefit of our unique pricing model, which offers up to 60% better odds. PinnacleSports.com benefits from educating its players, as it is sharp bettors who firm up our early prices on all markets offered, that allows us to provide the highest limits and most competitive odds around.
Article submitted by Hobbes from PinnacleSports.com. (Sorry, no US bettors)
Check out our latest sportsbook review of Pinnacle Sports Bookmaker onsite at BookieLabRat.com.
September 14th, 2007
The Inside Word from Pinnacle Sports Book
by Locke
One simple tactic can improve the results of the majority of bettors but amazingly, only a small portion of players take advantage of it at the Pinnacle Sports book.
That betting strategy is to bet early.
Overnight lines are the betting world’s gift to players, allowing them to get good numbers across the board. It even helps you pick better sides!
Once you experiment with betting overnight, it will quickly become clear that it offers you better value. I’m here to explain why, and how best to take advantage of that opportunity.
What moves the odds? Money! When money talks, sportsbooks listen. Books seek to get two-way action, with roughly equal money on both sides. If the current odds fail to produce that, then the book will increase the price to bet on the team everyone likes and make the unpopular team cheaper. Sometimes the market also moves as the result of a new development, such as an unexpected lineup or an injury report, but most moves come from the bettors. Moves can happen quickly due to large bets from big players or gambling syndicates (also known as steam moves), and they can come gradually as the public weighs in on the game.
As a bettor, you need to decide when to bet in addition to what to bet on and how much to risk. As an aspiring sharp bettor, you doubtless have good reasons for liking the team you want to back, and by placing a bet, you’ve concluded that the team has value at the current price. Whatever reasons you might have, chances are that other people share those same opinions. They will bet on the same team, and together you will often make the price to bet your team more expensive. Even instinctive handicappers will tend to pick up on the same things that other instinctive handicappers do.
If the closing line for the game is the market’s best guess as to what the fair price is, you’re more likely to see value in those teams that are currently cheaper than what their closing price will be, while you’ll be less likely to find teams priced higher than their closing price attractive. Thus not only are the teams you like going to get more expensive over time, but the ones that will get cheaper are exactly the ones you’re most likely to avoid due to the price! The earlier you bet, the more value you are likely to find. This extra value can turn losing players into break even players and turn break even players into winners.
That said, there are three good reasons not to use overnight lines. The first reason is that overnight it is harder to shop around for the best price because many books have not yet posted their odds. If your only outs are at books that charge full commission or ‘juice’ for wagering and you must lay -110 to bet (wager $110 to win $100) then this is a strong reason to wait, you should only bet early when you feel your edge is large.
However, in baseball many books offer a ‘dime’ line, and if you use Pinnacle Sports you pay only -105 to wager, even on totals and Runlines. For moneylines in MLB, the Pinnacle Sports book offers the best value, using a -104 line set all the way to -188. Baseball is almost impossible to beat without access to at least a dime line and ideally you should keep multiple dime lines available to shop around for the best price.
The second reason you might skip overnight lines is size. The overnight limits are smaller because books know that their lines frequently offer value and their volume will come closer to the start of the game; some books don’t offer overnight lines at all to protect themselves.
Most bettors are not big enough for this to be an issue on major sports. The Pinnacle Sports book lets you bet $10,000 on MLB moneylines overnight and $5,000 on runlines and totals. That is enough for all but an elite few, but even the $500 overnight limits at most sportsbooks are enough for the majority of customers.
The third reason you might skip the overnights is timing. Most bettors don’t want to plan that far in advance, preferring to see the results of today’s games, collect other information and do more handicapping. Others simply want to concentrate on watching games and relaxing once the games begin, and don’t want to be distracted with thoughts of tomorrow. If you’re a casual bettor trying to maximize the value of your bankroll, make sure overnight betting agrees with you. As you get more serious about your betting, it will become more important to get the best value.
Unless you are predicting that your team is likely to get cheaper, line shopping the next day is rarely as valuable as the overnight lines. Thus, all serious players should bet overnight to maximize their advantages.
We like it when players bet overnight for the same reason: You get value, but we get to sharpen our line. In an earlier column, we referred to the sharp overnight bettors as the “Hundred Dollar Geniuses” and this label fits many overnight players. The secret is that you don’t have to be a genius to be an overnight winner, just a solid bettor.
When you focus in on a game and give it your full attention, you’re paying more attention to it than anyone at a sportsbook can afford to pay on that one game. Out-thinking the market is far more difficult than out-thinking a soft early number. Why bet into a sharp line when you can bet into a soft one?
A final note is that many players seem to want the opposite, and this can be baffling. Often we’ll see players wait until we raise our limits, then bet an amount far less than the old limit. Our best guess is that these bettors want to know they’re getting a fair price and not get tricked or feel foolish. They want a solid line.
But why would you want to make it as hard as possible to find value? That circled game doesn’t mean the book is setting a trap – it means the book is afraid that if you bet into the game, you’ll be a winner.
RELATED LINKS :
See the bookielabrat.com review of PinnacleSports bookmaker
Or visit PinnacleSports now.
July 20th, 2007
by SCOTT SPREITZER
One of the hidden keys for successfully handicapping major league baseball is having a knack for evaluating bullpens. Far too many Las Vegas wagerers focus only on newspaper standings and starting pitchers when making their selections. You can’t beat baseball that way. You’ve got to think about all nine innings, not just the first six or seven…thank you very much Sparky Anderson.
Building a good bullpen is much more difficult than most major league general managers realize. We’ve seen many stories in past years where teams spent big bucks on an ace reliever just to find out that he can’t get anybody out any more. On the other side of the coin, many teams have found some relative unknown who suddenly thrives in the closer role for pennies on the dollar. You just never know.
Last year Cincinnati traded Austin Kearns to Washington for some long relievers on the mistaken assumption that bottom of the roster guys in a pitcher’s park would help out a team in a hitter’s park. The Reds fancied themselves divisional contenders (which they were only because the NL Central was a horrible division), and they imagined that shoring up a weak bullpen would put them over the top. The trade didn’t have any positive impact. This season, the Reds currently rank 24th in the majors in bullpen ERA. And, they probably wouldn’t mind having Kearns back on their roster either. Dumb trade.
Even the statistical publishing industry has had troubles getting a fix on what works and what doesn’t. The only advice from those publications has been along the lines of “don’t throw money at the problem because you can probably solve it cheaply. Just keep trying people until something works”. That doesn’t give anyone confidence, does it?
I know several bettors who have lost their confidence because they keep getting victimized by bad bullpens. Nothing demoralizes dog players more than watching a lead disappear in the eighth or ninth inning. Many Las Vegas professionals focus on underdogs. Games like this are just a punch to the gut. Take a few too many of those, and you lose the taste for gambling. You know what? Those aren’t really bad beats. Good handicappers should know to avoid betting on teams with shaky bullpens!
Even though there’s some mystery when it comes to building a successful bullpen, it’s just not that hard to recognize when it’s finally in place. That’s all handicappers have to do! Now that we’re almost three months into the season, bullpen earned run averages by themselves give you a very good sense of where everyone stands in this key category.
I’ve rated the 2007 bullpens for you based on their staff ERA’s heading into this past weekend. This deep into the season, the numbers are very meaningful. Teams with low bullpen ERA’s have a cast of contributors who are all thriving in their roles. Teams with high ERA’s still haven’t figured things out yet, and will still be prone to meltdowns once the starting pitcher has left the game. I’ll run through the ratings for you, and offer up some quick strategy advice for each group.
BEST BULLPENS
San Diego, Boston, the LA Dodgers, Toronto, Texas, Minnesota, San Francisco, Milwaukee, Atlanta, and Seattle, all have bullpen ERA’s at 3.62 or lower this season. They represent the top third of the majors, and have established themselves as relatively trustworthy almost three months into the season.
There are some surprises on the list to be sure. The Texas bullpen has been the lone bright spot on a bad team. It’s the starting rotation that’s ruined the Ranger season. Toronto’s has been better than people realize too. Remember that Texas and Toronto pitch in the AL with the designated hitter, and play in strong divisions.
Strategies for this group:
*When two teams play each other, look to take the UNDER unless very bad starting pitchers are in the mix.
*When any of these teams is starting a quality pitcher, you can back him with confidence because the bullpen will be able to seal the deal on most occasions.
*Whenever these teams are playing games in pitcher’s parks, the tendencies toward success or Unders will be magnified because the bullpen will perform even better than their full season numbers. Play accordingly.
MIDDLE RELIEVERS
Seattle, the NY Mets, Arizona, the LA Angels, Washington, Cleveland, the NY Yankees, Oakland, the Chicago Cubs, Florida, St. Louis, Colorado, and Kansas City, all have ERA’s in the 3.60 to 4.34 range. That’s relatively generic. I’ve listed the teams from best to worst within this group, so Seattle and the Mets are close to being very good, while the bottom three are close to being bad. It’s best to just think of this grouping as “no harm no foul” in the big picture.
Strategies for this group:
*Focus on the offenses and the starting pitchers when making your side and total decisions. These bullpens aren’t doing much to influence results this year one way or the other. They’ll hold their share of leads. They’ll blow their share of saves. It all comes out in the wash.
*Pay attention to injuries with this group. If a team loses a key player, they could very easily fall down into the worst group that you’re about to study. If a star player comes back from a layoff, he could lift any of these teams up to the elite group.
*There’s no reason to shy away from quality starters on these teams out of fear for the bullpen. You’ll lose some heartbreakers. But, you’ll win some too.
WORST RELIEVERS
Clocking in at 4.86 or worse are Houston, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, Detroit, Baltimore, Tampa Bay, and the Chicago White Sox. It’s surprising to see Detroit on the list, as pitching was a strength during their AL championship run last year. This season, a fantastic offense has helped hide this developing weakness.
Strategies for this group:
*Look to take the OVER whenever teams in this group play each other, and almost any time that the teams are playing in good hitter’s parks. A few of these teams will be Over machines this summer in the warm weather.
*Be very careful laying big odds with a starting pitcher on any of these teams. He could throw a gem but still get victimized by a bad bullpen.
*If any of these teams is starting a poor pitcher, it’s a go against and/or an OVER situation. That poor starter will allow a bunch of runs, then the kerosene kids will come in and make it worse.
It’s very important that you incorporate bullpens into your handicapping approach. As long as you’re thinking about all nine innings of a game rather than just what the starting pitchers will do, you will be in position to grind out a steady profit. Remember that Las Vegas lines are based on public perceptions, and the public pays too little attention to bullpens.
RELATED LINK :
Scott is one of the top US sports handicappers online today – and you can read more of Scott’s editorials and betting picks here :
July 2nd, 2007
Improvements in televised and web-cast game coverage has meant that bookmakers can offer new styles of online betting. In-play betting, more than any other addition in recent years, has added a whole new dimension for punters.
In-play betting, also known as in-running or live betting involves placing bets as an event progresses. It can be exciting and fast-moving and if you can pick the way a game is swinging, or realise the significance of a substitution or sending off, then you may make a substantial profit.
The best bookmakers (and betting exchanges) now give you the opportunity to bet throughout the event – it’s really dynamic and as the action hots up so does the in-play betting, with the odds moving to reflect the changing circumstances of the game.
For example in a football match if a team is leading at 2-0 at half time, you may be offered generous odds that there will less than 2.5 goals scored or if a team is losing by 2 goals going into the final 20 minutes you may get offered as much as 10-1 odds that they won’t manage a draw.
There are many betting markets offered in-running which cover far more than the result of the match. Punters can also wager on the next goal to be scored, the next side to receive a booking, the number of corners in the game and lots more.
There is a wide range of bet options available in-running, so the smart punter can sometimes find themselves in a profitable situation where you can wager on a market after kickoff and lock in a guaranteed profit!
Based on our own betting experierences and taking in comments from a large number of punter forums our shortlist of best places to place in-running bets is:
>> The Bet365 In-Live console is hard to beat
>> Paddypower‘s In-Play Betting comes highly recommended
>> If you’re savvy and confident enough for player-to-player exchange style in-running bets BetFair is the only place to be.
View our archive of articles explaining Sports Betting Terms
February 17th, 2007
The next instalment of ‘betting terms explained’… growing rapidly in popularity, ‘under/over 2.5 goals’ betting.
What the hell is ‘under/over 2.5 goals’ about? It sounds fairly stupid.
The Under/over 2.5 goals market lets you bet on the total number of goals in a football match – in other words, whether there will be more or fewer than 2.5 goals in the game.
That sort of makes sense – but why 2.5 goals? A team can’t score ½ a goal!
Exactly. By setting the ‘goalline’ (as it’s known) at 2.5 goals, the bookies allow you to take a view on every possible scoring outcome. You can bet on whether there will be two goals, three goals, or so on. Remember, you are not betting on there being 2.5 goals in the game, you’re betting on more or fewer than 2.5 goals.
OK, so are these bets popular?
Increasingly so. The four most popular football betting markets are: 1X2 (the outcome of a match), correct score, half-time/full-time (a double where you bet on the result after 45 minutes) and first scorer. Even though some of these markets offer poor value, they’re still the biggies – but the under/over market is catching up.
Is there any value in betting on it?
Yes. Certain teams, for example, are regularly involved in low-scoring matches. Chelsea are a good example – they may be the finest side in England (did I type that!?), but it does not mean every match is a goal-fest. They concede few goals, so they’re usually good value to be under 2.5 goals. Some people say there’s absolutely no correlation between how many goals occur in one match and the next, although most sane people believe trends exist if you look hard enough.
Fine…what research should I be doing to pick winning over/under value bets?
Yes, gut feel is not necessarily the most reliable way to bet!
The first step is to study how many goals occur in matches involving the two sides in the game you’re betting on. Take Chelsea again – in the 2004/05 season 23 of their 38 Premiership matches had under 2.5 goals, which means the true odds of a Chelsea game finishing ‘under’ were around 4/6 (1.67).
Produce similar stats for their opponents on a given day and you will be able to calculate what the true odds are when the two teams meet. You may wish to factor in other stuff – previous results between the two teams for example – but looking at under/over stats for both teams over a long period of time is an excellent starting point.
Is the goal line only ever 2.5 goals?
No. Some bookies will set the goalline lower if a league is particularly low scoring. In the French league, for example, you will often see the goalline at 2/2.5 – this means half your stake is placed at under/over two goals, and half at under/over 2.5 goals. If the game ends with 2 goals, the part of your stake placed on 2 goals will be returned to you. However, the betting exchanges allow you to bet on under/over 2.5 goals on every game. (See Betfair review)
Any other tips?
Remember that you’re not betting on a team’s scoring record – you’re betting on how many goals will occur in the match. That means defensive strengths or weaknesses are as important as goals scored. Don’t overestimate the importance of a leading goalscorer being absent – defenders are just as likely to have a bearing on the number of goals.
So what now?
All major bookies offer prices on the under/over 2.5 goals market across most English and European divisions so there are plenty of betting opportunities that you can get stuck into. Compare odds between bookies and spread your betting funds (betting bankroll) across a number of bookmaker accounts – not just one or two – to ensure you can get the best odds at a given time.
We recommend Bet365 for consistently offering some of the best odds on the net. (and we have the stats to prove it)
(Sorry no US bettors)
February 16th, 2007
At BookieLabRat.com we get a lot of questions from punters about Betting Systems.
Please note that our general stance on betting systems is that “Nearly all betting systems are equally worthless“.
So what’s a Betting System?
It’s just a method of betting, usually mathematically based, used by a punter to try for an advantage.
There are lots of betting systems, all involving a staking pattern that ranges from common sense through to ridculously complex or just ultra-high risk. Many systems are almost ‘betting folklore’ rather than sane methods to improve your returns.
Betting System Basics Part 1: Today’s article is going to cover a couple of related systems: Martingale, Grand Martingale and Anti Martingale or Paroli.
We’ll look at Kelly’s Criteria, Flat Betting, Plateau, Fibonacci, Cancellation or Labouchere Betting and other systems another day.
THE MARTINGALE BETTING SYSTEM
The Martingale system is probably the best known betting system and is fairly simple. It focuses on losing streaks and is usually applied to ‘even money’ bets.
To apply the Martingale system, you double your previous bet each time you lose, and continue to do so until you win. The theory behind this is that when you do eventually win you will have covered all of your previous bets and have made one betting unit as profit.
So… if you start with one bet and win, you start again with one bet. If you lose, however, you double your bet. Each time you lose, you double your last lost bet. The theory goes that eventually you are bound to win. When you win you will recover all your lost bets plus one unit profit against your initial wager.
Although this system sounds good in theory, it can require a large bankroll and have a very low return. It can also be high risk due to the maximum bet limits imposed by the sportsbook or bookie. If you run out of money or reach the bookie’s limit, you can lose a lot with no chance whatsoever to recover your losses.
GRAND MARTINGALE
Obviously a derivative of the Martingale Betting System, the only thing grand about this system in our view is the way in which you’ll lose your money! This system is a more aggressive form of Martingale where you double your last bet and add one more unit.
ANTI-MARTINGALE or PAROLI Betting System
This system is all about winning streaks rather than losing streaks. In the Paroli system you start with one bet and you double-up your bet when you win rather than when you lose.
You need to decide in advance how far you’ll let the bet build before you take it down to the initial starting bet. As a variation some punters rather than doubling the bet, will add half again to the previously winning bet stake, after each win.
The advantage of this system over Martingale is that you don’t need such a large bankroll. It in theory lets the profit run and cuts short the losses. In theory ….
OUR VIEW
All three of these systems are plainly flawed as they suggest increasing stakes simply based on your previous wins and/or losses and pay no attention to the likelihood of winning this time.
If you follow any of these three systems you’ll simply end up staking and risking more than you are comfortable doing … none of them are recommended.
More on other Betting Systems to come soon…
Mike
February 15th, 2007
A quick run down of some of the common – and more obscure – multi-bets that punters can place.
The more profitable members of the BookieLabRat.com team 🙂 generally tend to follow a KISS (Keep It Simple Stupid) approach to placing bets and stick with Asian Handicaps, 1X2 bets and the occasional special bet for interest.
We consider that accumulators are often ‘mugs bets’ as unless every leg of a bet is a value bet you can be handing the bookie money on a plate!
Some of the better online bookmakers, like betting giant Bet365, offer extra value on accumulator/parlay bets – up to 60% bonus. Others, like novelty-bet specialist, BetFred, run special cash back offers that refund your stake or still payout if one leg of the multiple bet fails.
Accumulator:
A bet that links together two or more individual wagers and is dependent on all of those wagers winning together. The benefit of the accumulator is that there are much higher payoffs than placing each individual bet separately. But the draw back is if any of the bets in the parlay loses, the entire bet loses.
Canadian:
A multiple bet consisting of 26 bets (10 doubles, 10 trebles, 5 4-folds and 1 5-fold) with 5 selections in different events (also known as a “Super Yankee”).
Heinz:
A multiple bet consisting of 57 bets (15 doubles, 20 trebles, 15 4-folds, 6 5-folds and 1 6-fold) involving 6 teams in different matches.
Lucky 15,31,63:
Multiple bets on all possible combinations of 4, 5 or 6 selections. A Lucky 15 (same as a Yap) is 4 selections, so 4 singles, 6 doubles, 4 trebles and 1 accumulator = 15 bets.
Patent:
A multiple bet consisting of 7 bets involving 3 selections in different events. A single on each selection, plus 3 doubles and 1 treble.
Parlay:
Term for an accumulator bet in US. Also, a wager on two or more teams in which both must win or “cover” for the bet to be lucrative.
Roundabout:
A wager consisting of 3 bets involving 3 selections in different events (i.e. 1 single and to come and double stake double on remaining two selections, 3 times).
Round Robin:
A series of parlays. A three-team Round Robin consists of one three-team parlay and three two-team parlays.
Examples: Joe likes teams A,B,C – with a Round Robin he has a three-teamer with ABC, and two-teamers with AB, AC, and BC.
Teaser:
Similar to a parlay, a teaser bet is a single bet that links together two or more individual wagers but is different in that it also allows you to adjust the point spread of each individual wager. In exchange for the points, you will get less of a return on your bet. Each of the individual wagers must win or the bet is a loss.
Treble:
A bet consisting of 3 selections, all of which must win for the wager to be successful.
Trixie:
A multiple bet consisting of 4 bets (3 doubles and 1 treble) with 3 selections in different events.
Yankee:
A multiple bet consisting of 11 bets (6 doubles, 4 trebles and 1 4-fold) on 4 selections in different events
February 11th, 2007
Person-to-person betting on exchanges is a relatively new phenomenon made possible by the Internet.
Betting Exchanges are sites where you can offer your own odds to other people. You can also accept the odds offered by others. Betting Exchanges comprise of a range of different betting markets (eg football, NFL, ice hockey, etc.).
No bookies are involved – the odds are offered by other punters just like you and the Exchange takes a fee (commission) for facilitating the deal. A straight win single bet is called a “back” bet. You can also place “lay” bets betting that an outcome won’t happen… and you can often bet while a game is in play. (In-running bets).
Betting Exchanges use a decimal odds system as they are easier to compare (so a few conversions for you UK and US punters!) – and you can get great odds if you know what you’re doing, but not always!
In general, Betting Exchanges are fairly complex – and not for novices as you really need to do your homework.
When you bet with a Bookmaker you’ll get ‘fair’ odds (as determined by the market) and you’ll also have a customer service team you can call on with any questions or problems. At a Betting Exchange you’re on your own – if you misinterpret the odds or make a mistake you wear it – there is no comeback and in any given wager you still may not be getting odds as good as those available through a bookmaker.
We hear the occasional ‘horror story’ where punters simply did not understand what they were committing to with their ‘great bet’ or had forgotten to allow for commission, etc.
A book we highly recommend as a good investment of a tenner: The Definitive Guide to Betting Exchanges by Paul Kealy
COMPARE THE BEST BETTING EXCHANGES
BetFair™ is the World’s largest Betting Exchange. Established in 1999 the UK licenced and based BetFair is owned by The Sporting Exchange Ltd. BetFair is only a Betting Exchange (although has extended recently into online poker)
COMMISSION: Betfair charges a Commission on your net winnings on a market. 5% is usual with discounts applying for frequent punters (up to 60% discount – ie a minimum commission rate of 3%)
SPORTS COVERAGE: BetFair’s betting coverage is very good. It is global (ie includes NFL, NBA, etc even though they do not accept USA members) Coverage is not as deep as Betsson for lower division football bets. (Note: BetFair has been known to extend to a new market if there is sufficient demand – contact them!)
Betsson™ established in 2000 & is UK licenced. Betsson is part of the successful & rapidly growing Swedish Stock Market listed Betsson Group. They offer betting exchange services in addition to a conventional sports bookmaker bets. (Plus Casino & Poker).
COMMISSION: Betsson deducts commission at a rate of four (4) per cent or lower calculated on your net winnings on any single Market when backing, laying or selling. Losing bets do not incur commission.
SPORTS COVERAGE: Betsson’s European football betting coverage is the best we’ve seen (if you want to bet on a Division 2 Polish side – Betsson is the betting exchange for you!)
February 9th, 2007
An arbitrage bet potentially exists when contrasting odds occur across different bookmakers, sports books or betting exchanges for a given event or game.
Arbitrage is also referred to as sure bets, scalps, no-risk and risk-free bets.
In theory, in an arbitrage situation, you can guarantee a profit regardless of the game outcome by placing balanced bets across all possible outcomes (e.g. in football, win, draw, and loss) at the best odds for each outcome.
In practical terms, however, real arbitrage opportunities seldom exist – and certainly not in sufficient quantities and percentages to be viable for professional punters.
If you are prepared to consider lesser (more dodgy) bookmakers you may be able to create an opportunity but the process can be far from “no risk”.
Top numbers man and betting tipster, The Gooner of www.goonersguide.com, considers that there are three main issues that dispel the myth of sports arbitrage. They are voiding, volume and money management.
Voiding
Bookmakers have rules covering themselves for “palpable error”. If they get a price wrong on their web site they can void all bets at that price. So if you take bets to cover the arbitrage that are subsequently voided you’re in trouble as your “no risk” bet has suddenly evaporated. This happens and punters find themselves risking a very large bet on the other legs of the arbitrage!
Volume and Timing
The second big issue with arbitrage is whether you can get enough volume and at the right ratios to get a real arbitrage opportunity.
When a bookie is markedly out-of-step with the market and creates an arbitrage situation, they are likely to take a lot of bets from general punters anyway (ie not just those trying to achieve arbitrage) and as such arbitrage windows are usually closed quickly by natural market forces.
As most arbitrage bets offer just a 1-3% profit (ie the overall difference between the balanced bets across all possible outcomes), in order to make $20 profit you’ll need to have $1000 wagered across the bets. You have to be very sure that all legs of the bet will accept the volumes you want to place in order to make the bet risk free.
Imagine the sinking feeling you’ll get if you’ve placed the $800 on and can’t get the remaining $200 placed to achieve the arbitrage. (For example you might be limited to $20 per punter instead and you no longer can achieve a balanced bet or have a ‘sure win’ situation).
Money Management
Thirdly, in order to profit from arbitrage you need to have active accounts with lots of bookies – maybe as many as 20 to 30 – to be able to identify and take advantage of discrepancies in pricing. Your betting bank (your total funds in all bookmaker accounts) needs to be spread across these bookmaker accounts in order to allow a quick response.
You also need to be able to move your available funds across each of your betting accounts quickly and without losing value. Remember that some e-wallets and many online bookmakers will charge you either a fixed fee and or a percentage each time you make a withdrawal. It is common practice for bookmakers to limit you to one free withdrawal per month.
With 20 active bookie accounts you potentially need $10K in your betting fund spread across your bookies in order to place $1000 arbitrage bets. If it is a 2% arbitrage on offer – that means just $20 profit. In our view if you’ve $10K tied up, you’d be better off just putting it in the bank!
Arbitrage is a notion that sells books and subscriptions to web sites supposedly listing arbitrage opportunities. The size and scope of the arbitrage is generally so small that these opportunities can disappear literally within minutes.
Where Arbitrage can give great value – the free bet !
When a bookie runs a promotional offer or free bet you sometimes can get value from arbitrage bets. You can lock down one leg of the bet (the free bet or cash back deal) and all you’re really looking to do is to place contrasting bets to get close to 100% stake return, no matter what result. Pocketing the promotional offer or free bet is your objective.
A memorable 2006 example saw an aggressive and relatively new sports book offering a $1000 cash back deal on an NFL football game. By taking the bet with them and placing a ½ sized bet on the opposition at another bookie, punters were guaranteed to pocket a $500 overall profit regardless of the game outcome.
We certainly took advantage of this deal along with many other bettors who grabbed at the opportunity. The only complaints we heard were from bettors who were not geared up with multiple bookie accounts or had slow payment methods and so were not able to get in before the offer was over subscribed!
Other Sports Betting Terms Explained:
>>Overround
>>Fixed Odds Betting
>>Asian Handicap Betting
>>Spread Betting
February 5th, 2007
Sports betting odds are based on probability, reflecting the sportsbooks and bookmakers estimates of winning – but they also contain a margin to enable the bookie to make a profit if they get a balanced book.
This “margin” is called Vig, Vigorish, Juice or Overround and all these terms are taking about the same thing – the bookies “built-in” margin on the bets. Therefore it’s obvious that the lower the overround, the better the value in the market.
So how can you tell what the overround is in a market? Let’s work through a couple of examples :
In a handicap market for a European football match between Arsenal and Real Madrid, where both teams had an equal chance of winning (and the draw is refunded), without an overround they would both be fairly priced at even money or 2.00.
However, the bookies do not offer this price, instead they need a margin to make a profit and so they might only offer a price of 10/11 (1.91) on each team. A price of 1.91 reflects a 52.3% chance ( calculated as 1.00 / 1.91 = 0.523) and so the overround on this market would be around 105%.
For US sports the simplest example is seen in the ATS bet (Against The Spread / handicap bet). Again if the spread was set correctly then without overround both sides prices would be around 2.00 (or +100 is US betting odds) – reflecting a fair price for a 50% chance.
But the effect of the “vig” (US slang for Overround) results in each of the sides usually being priced between 1.90 to 1.96 (depending on your bookmaker) rather than the 2.00
Many bookies will take around 10% margin from each market – however one of the most consistently sharp bookies (especially for US sports bets) is PinnacleSports where they only take out around a 4% margin rather than the 10% “industry standard”.
An underround can occasionally occur when you look at odds between bookies, say, if you could get 11/10 (2.10) on both teams. This is also called an arb.
(Arbitrage – Where a variation in odds available allows a punter to back both sides and guarantee a win will be the subject of another Key Betting Terms Explained Blog soon).
>>GO TO Pinnacle Sports
>>Key Betting Terms Explained: Spread Betting
>>Key Betting Terms Explained: Fixed Odds Betting
>>Key Betting Terms Explained: Asian Handicap Betting
January 29th, 2007
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