Posts filed under 'US Football'
You’ve been waiting for this for months. The 2009 NFL season is only two weeks away – all right, the NFL preseason. But it’s still football, by far the most popular betting sport in North America, and the NFL is our bread and butter at Bodog Sports.
There’s no such thing as an offseason when it comes to business. Important players have changed hands, others were added at the 2009 NFL Draft, and we’re once again left hanging about Brett Favre’s future. Here’s the skinny on what’s been going down.
Favre Watch, Day 181
It’s been widely assumed since Favre retired from the New York Jets on Feb. 11 that he’d be back in the NFL for 2009, and playing for the Minnesota Vikings. A lot is riding on this decision; even at age 39, Favre put up useful numbers (22 TDs, 22 INTs, 81.0 passer rating) for the Jets and nearly got them into the playoffs. Incumbent starter Tarvaris Jackson has a career passer rating of 76.5 in parts of three seasons with the Vikings. The difference between the two is big enough to keep Minnesota’s over/under for wins off the board for now.
Orton Hears a Who
The Jets are one of 11 teams to go into the 2009 NFL season with new full-time head coaches:
The Jets are one of 11 teams to go into the 2009 NFL season with new full-time head coaches: Cleveland Browns: Eric Mangini replaces Romeo Crennel
Denver Broncos: Josh McDaniels replaces Mike Shanahan
Detroit Lions: Jim Schwartz replaces Rod Marinelli
Kansas City Chiefs: Todd Haley replaces Herm Edwards
Indianapolis Colts: Jim Caldwell replaces Tony Dungy
New York Jets: Rex Ryan replaces Mangini
Oakland Raiders: Tom Cable replaces Lane Kiffin
St. Louis Rams: Steve Spagnuolo replaces interim coach Jim Haslett
San Francisco 49ers: Mike Singletary replaces Mike Nolan
Seattle Seahawks: Jim L. Mora replaces Mike Holmgren
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Raheem Morris replaces Jon Gruden
Dungy and Holmgren have earned their retirements. Everybody else got the pink slip. All these coaching changes should make the NFL a more volatile commodity for bettors this year – and the most volatile situation is in Denver, where the new Broncos front office got into a feud with QB Jay Cutler (25 TDs, 18 INTs, 86.0 passer rating) and ended up trading him to the Chicago Bears for QB Kyle Orton. (18 TDs, 12 INTs, 79.6 passer rating). That’s a downgrade for the Broncos, but Orton is an undervalued commodity because of his “goofy” personality off the field.
Not Quite Free Michael Vick
If anyone else needs a quarterback, Michael Vick wants to play, but he won’t be available until Week 6. That’s according to league commish Roger Goodell’s ruling on Monday to conditionally reinstate Vick after 18 months in prison for dogfighting-related crimes. Handicappers will want to pay extra attention to this story for two reasons. One, Vick would actually be able to participate in workouts and the final two preseason games, should anyone sign him. There will be betting lines for those games, and Vick figures to need a lot of playing time to get back into game shape. Two, Vick’s ongoing suspension (spun by Goodell as a chance to make a “transition”) is being labeled as harsh in the press and could be lifted upon further review.
If anyone else needs a quarterback, Michael Vick wants to play, but he won’t be available until Week 6. That’s according to league commish Roger Goodell’s ruling on Monday to conditionally reinstate Vick after 18 months in prison for dogfighting-related crimes. Handicappers will want to pay extra attention to this story for two reasons. One, Vick would actually be able to participate in workouts and the final two preseason games, should anyone sign him. There will be betting lines for those games, and Vick figures to need a lot of playing time to get back into game shape. Two, Vick’s ongoing suspension (spun by Goodell as a chance to make a “transition”) is being labeled as harsh in the press and could be lifted upon further review.
Drafting Table
Here are the five draft picks most likely to make an immediate impact in their rookie campaigns.
Here are the five draft picks most likely to make an immediate impact in their rookie campaigns. 1. Jason Smith, St. Louis Rams: Smith will slide in at left tackle and give QB Marc Bulger (38 sacks) the blindside protection he sorely needs.
2. Brian Orakpo, Washington Redskins: Orakpo can play linebacker or end, and when he’s on the line, the former Longhorn gets to play alongside premium tackle Albert Haynesworth.
3. Robert Ayers, Denver Broncos: This was the second-worst defense in the league last year in terms of efficiency. Ayers offers instant relief on the line as new defensive co-ordinator Mike Nolan switches to the 3-4.
4. Percy Harvin, Minnesota Vikings: Whether it’s Favre, Jackson or Sage Rosenfels throwing the ball, Harvin is a dazzling skill player fulfilling a big need for the Vikings.
5. Rey Maualuga, Cincinnati Bengals: Maualuga is a pass-rushing linebacker with coverage skills and the opportunity to line up next to former USC Trojans teammate Keith Rivers.
Walk it off
Ayers won’t be making any difference for the Broncos until he agrees to sign and report to their training camp, which starts July 30. Both Ayers and fellow first-round pick Knowshon Moreno are holding out; Brandon Marshall will be there, but he’s clearly not happy with his situation in Denver. Or perhaps they just want to avoid the horrible injuries that can happen in camp. We leave you with these (non-heat stroke related) classics:
Ayers won’t be making any difference for the Broncos until he agrees to sign and report to their training camp, which starts July 30. Both Ayers and fellow first-round pick Knowshon Moreno are holding out; Brandon Marshall will be there, but he’s clearly not happy with his situation in Denver. Or perhaps they just want to avoid the horrible injuries that can happen in camp. We leave you with these (non-heat stroke related) classics:
1983: Rookie RB Doug Furnas injured in Broncos camp, becomes pro-wrestler instead after a year on injured reserve
1987: Green Bay Packers sophomore DB Elbert Watts tears up his knee in a scrimmage, never plays again
2004: WR David Boston’s knee buckles during a Miami Dolphins practice; career goes into tailspin
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July 28th, 2009
Have the Detroit Lions learned from history? Or are they doomed to repeat it?
The Lions are on the clock for this weekend’s NFL Draft at Radio City Music Hall. Detroit’s draft-day misery over the past decade hangs over the franchise like a dark cloud:
2002: QB Joey Harrington, No. 3 overall
2003: WR Charles Rogers, No. 2
2004: WR Roy Williams, No. 4
2005: WR Mike Williams, No. 10
This collection of dubious picks eventually earned former President and CEO Matt Millen his walking papers – and kept Detroit in rebuilding mode on an annual basis. The Lions bottomed out last year at 0-16 (7-9 ATS). They’re last on the 2010 Super Bowl futures market at 150-1. And it appears they’re about to roll the dice again on a high-profile skill player. Reports from ESPN had the Lions trying to sign Georgia QB Matthew Stafford before Saturday’s opening rounds.
Who will the Lions pick first? Bet on the 2009 NFL Draft at Bodog Live.
The quarterback is the most important player on the field with the most difficult job. Drafting at this position is inherently risky, but also with a high reward, and last year’s successes with Matt Ryan in Atlanta and Joe Flacco in Baltimore appear to have emboldened front offices. Stafford is one of three QBs expected to come off the board early; USC’s Mark Sanchez and Kansas State’s Josh Freeman are the others.
Stafford certainly fits Detroit’s offense like a glove. His prime attribute is his arm strength, and scouts are drooling over the thought of Stafford airing it out to WR Calvin Johnson, who led the league last year with 12 touchdowns. Stafford is also fairly accurate with his throws, durable, and blessed with good leadership skills. But his focus and decision-making abilities are in question. If Stafford responds to coaching, he could blossom.
Think Stafford is the first to go? Bet on the 2009 NFL Draft at Bodog Live.
Those are the kind of “ifs” that often scare teams away – notice how former Notre Dame QB Brady Quinn slipped to No. 22 overall at the 2007 NFL Draft. Last year, the Miami Dolphins drafted conservatively, taking OT Jake Long with the first pick and later signing New York Jets castoff Chad Pennington to a free-agent deal. That approach worked brilliantly in 2008 as the Dolphins went from 1-15 to the AFC East title at 11-5 (8-8 ATS). Long was one of seven offensive tackles taken in the first round; this year could see another four OTs taken in the Top 10, starting with Baylor’s Jason Smith.
If Stafford is a deadbolt lock at No. 1, then it’s almost a given that Smith will become a member of the St. Louis Rams at No. 2. The Rams have ridiculously gaping holes in their offensive line, especially with seven-time Pro Bowl selection Orlando Pace going to the Chicago Bears as a salary-cap casualty. The Lions are also bereft of talent at left tackle and reportedly have Smith as their fallback choice should Stafford decide not to put pen to paper. Detroit has the No. 20 pick and could find Freeman available at that slot; the other premium OTs (Virginia’s Eugene Monroe, Alabama’s Andre Smith, Mississippi’s Michael Oher) should all be snapped up by then.
Is Jason Smith headed to St. Louis? Bet on the 2009 NFL Draft at Bodog Live.
On the defensive side, the general consensus is that the Kansas City Chiefs are going to take Wake Forest LB Aaron Curry with the No. 3 pick. Curry is ranked as both the best prospect at his position and the best overall by Scouts Inc. Conveniently enough, the Chiefs happen to need a rushing linebacker, although Curry would have been more useful in Kansas City’s “4-3 Under” system than the 3-4 front seven new coach Todd Haley plans to install. There’s every possibility the Chiefs will decide to trade down instead and pick up one of those aforementioned OTs instead.
Some of the other big names expected to hear their names called sooner rather than later: Texas Tech WR Michael Crabtree (possibly to the Seattle Seahawks at No. 4), Georgia RB Knowshon Moreno, Ohio State RB Chris “Beanie” Wells and his Buckeyes teammate, LB James Laurinaitis. The last name on this list could turn out to be the biggest steal of the draft. He started his college career as a piece of trivia – his father is best known as “Road Warrior Animal” from the world of professional wrestling – but Laurinaitis enters the draft as the Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year in 2007 and 2008. He’s ranked behind only Curry at his position and could go anywhere from the middle of the first round to the top of the second.
Bet on the 2009 NFL Draft at Bodog Live.
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April 25th, 2009
Super Bowl XLIII Preview from the team at Bodog Sports.
Sunday, Feb. 1 is the singular red-letter day on the betting calendar, the mother of all sporting events: Super Bowl XLIII at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa. This year’s gala coincides with the inauguration of President Obama, so it’s only natural that the matchup between the Arizona Cardinals (12-7 SU and ATS) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (14-4 SU, 11-7 ATS) is being treated as a watershed moment for the sports gambling industry.
Nobody’s predicting a possible take of $100 million on the Las Vegas Strip this year. But action is already coming in fast on both sides with the Steelers opening as 7-point favorites (-105). The total is 47, and according to market reports, roughly 70 percent of bettors at press time were taking the over at +100.
Business will pick up over the course of the next two weeks, especially once the market opens for Super Bowl props. This has been a major area of growth for the online industry; bettors love the entertainment value and the potential giant payouts from laying cash on individual athletes. Our live betting feature takes this to another level, allowing you to bet on every single play of the big game as it happens.
We’ll have more coverage of the different betting markets as they open. The most popular prop bets will deal with the most popular players in the game itself. In this case, that would be Arizona QB Kurt Warner. He was the MVP of Super Bowl XXXIV leading the St. Louis Rams and their “Greatest Show on Turf” offense to victory over the Tennessee Titans. A series of concussions seemed to derail Warner’s career, but he’s persisted and played his way back into the Super Bowl with a 96.9 QB rating, just a shade below his peak years in St. Louis. The tastiest Warner props will deal with how many TD passes (or interceptions) he’ll throw.
Ben Roethlisberger (80.1 passer rating) is the Pittsburgh quarterback and thus the team’s star player by default. His QB props will also be popular, but it’s the Steelers defense that really runs the show. Safety Troy Polamalu’s name will be heard a lot in the marketplace; he was one of the stars of Pittsburgh’s Super Bowl XL win over Seattle, and he returned an interception for a TD last week against the Baltimore Ravens.
Bet on Super Bowl XLIII in the Bodog online sports book.
There was some concern about Polamalu’s health after he strained his calf during the Divisional Round, but his play last week against the Ravens was more than reassuring. WR Hines Ward is likewise expected to be fine for the Super Bowl after twisting his right knee against Baltimore. And Roethlisberger now has some sore ribs courtesy of the Ravens. Otherwise, the Steelers are as healthy as an NFL team could hope to be in January.
The Cardinals have a few nagging issues; WR Anquan Boldin (groin) was at visibly less than full capacity in the NFC title win over the Eagles, and LB Travis LaBoy suffered a biceps injury that could knock him out of the big game. LaBoy is a role player whose absence shouldn’t hinder Arizona. Boldin is a top-shelf receiver, but the Cardinals have other options downfield in Larry Fitzgerald and Steve Breaston, and Boldin has another two weeks to heal before the Super Bowl.
These two teams have only faced one another twice during the regular season over the past decade. The Cardinals (+5.5) beat Pittsburgh 21-14 at home last year; Warner and Matt Leinart split the QB duties in that game, and both Boldin and Ward were out of commission, but the two rosters are otherwise much the same for the Super Bowl. The Steelers (-7) downed visiting Arizona 28-15 back in 2003 when the starting quarterbacks were Tommy Maddox and Jeff Blake.
There are strong positive trends for both teams going into the Super Bowl. Pittsburgh has covered seven playoff appearances in a row, while the Cardinals are on a 4-0 ATS run and 12-5 ATS in their past 17 against winning teams. The strongest betting trends are on the over: 12-2 in the last 14 Steelers playoff games and 35-16 in Arizona’s last 51 overall. The over is a combined 23-14 for these two clubs this season. If there’s any line movement during the next two weeks, it’s probably going to be against the total.
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January 21st, 2009
Super Bowl XLIII? Forget that. The best NFL games of the year are usually the Conference Round matchups. Over the past decade, the AFC title game has been called the “real” Super Bowl. But the gulf between the two conferences has closed somewhat, giving us two high-quality games to handicap this Sunday.
Check out the latest NFL Championship Round Betting odds at the following popular online sportsbooks: Bodog Sports (if you’re US based and wanting a great offshore sportsbook) or Bet365 (No US bettors, but THE best bookie for Europeans and UK punters).
Philadelphia at Arizona
University of Phoenix Stadium, Glendale, Ariz.
Sunday, 3:00 p.m. ET, FOX
Philadelphia: 11-6-1 SU, 12-6 ATS, Under 7-10-1
Arizona: 11-7 SU, 11-7 ATS, Over 12-6
The Eagles fly into the NFC title game as one of the hottest teams in the league at 6-1 SU and ATS in their last seven, all coming after QB Donovan McNabb was benched in Week 12 at Baltimore. This is roughly the same path the New York Giants took to Super Bowl XLII; last week, the Eagles (+4) turfed the defending champions 23-11 at Giants Stadium.
Arizona is also on a roll at 3-0 SU and ATS, starting with Week 17’s victory over the Seattle Seahawks and continuing with playoff wins over Atlanta and Carolina. Those three games included heavy doses of running, as Edgerrin James saw significant action for the first time since he was benched in Week 9. This was in many ways a return to form for the Cardinals; they ran the ball heavily in the first two weeks of the season, when they started off 2-0 SU and ATS before getting a little pass-happy with Kurt Warner (96.9 QB rating) at the controls.
Last week’s 33-13 dismantling of the Panthers (-10) also included something we’re not used to seeing from the Cards this year: strong defense. Arizona forced QB Jake Delhomme into five interceptions and one lost fumble, a definite improvement for a Cardinals team ranked No. 23 in the league against the pass during the regular season. However, it should be noted that the Panthers offensive line was worn down and vulnerable after a long season, leaving Delhomme exposed in the worst game of his NFL career.
Philadelphia, meanwhile, ousted the Giants last week despite a pedestrian effort on offense. The New York defense has certainly outperformed Arizona’s over the course of the season; this was the No. 9-ranked unit in terms of efficiency against both the run and the pass. It’s reasonable to expect Arizona to have more trouble than the Giants did containing McNabb now that he has the benefit of playing indoors, sheltered from the swirling winds and freezing cold of New Jersey.
The Eagles are 4-point favorites (-115) on Sunday with a total of 47. Philadelphia is also 2-1 to win the Super Bowl, while Arizona has the longest odds of the remaining foursome at 5-1.
Baltimore at Pittsburgh
Heinz Field, Pittsburgh
Sunday, 6:30 p.m. ET, CBS
50% chance of snow, 20 degrees, light winds
Baltimore: 13-5 SU, 14-4 ATS, Over 9-8-1
Pittsburgh: 13-4 SU, 10-7 ATS, Over 9-8
It’s still winter back on the East Coast. Heinz Field will be a mess, which is fitting football weather for these two defensive juggernauts. These two AFC North teams have already met twice this year; the first game actually went over the posted total of 34.5 in a 23-20 overtime home win for the Steelers (-6), while December’s rematch in Baltimore was a more familiar 13-9 final, with Pittsburgh (+3) once again prevailing thanks to a last-minute touchdown. The total was 34 points.
With the rubber match returning to Heinz Field, the Steelers are back to laying six points (-105) with a total of 34. But the Ravens are even hotter than the Eagles at 7-1 SU and ATS in their last eight – the Pittsburgh loss was the only blemish during that span. The Steelers are 6-1 SU and ATS in their past seven, with the lone defeat coming in Week 16 against the same Titans team that Baltimore eliminated from the playoffs last week.
The Ravens have been statistically superior to Pittsburgh in just about every way this year. They have the better offense and special teams, but the Steelers rank No. 1 in the league in defensive efficiency, with Baltimore right behind at No. 2. Power running could very well be the difference Sunday in the snow; in this aspect, the Ravens are ideally equipped with 260-pound fullback Le’Ron McClain handling the ball in short-yardage situations. Pittsburgh got a surprising 146 yards from Willie Parker last week against the Chargers, but Parker’s forte is speed, and Baltimore has a stronger run defense than the Steel Curtain.
The Ravens are 4-1 to win the Super Bowl compared to 8-5 for the Steelers. And yet it’ll be no surprise if we have an all-Wild Card matchup in the big game. Parity indeed.
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January 15th, 2009
You have now entered Sports Betting Shangri-La. This week is going to be absolutely stellar for handicappers; the Rose Bowl and the Orange Bowl are on tap, along with the NHL Winter Classic. But wait, there’s more: We now have the four NFL Wild-Card matchups all set. Let’s add the best of those games and put some other fresh produce on the shelf for this week’s Top 5 list (all times Eastern; for current lines, visit the Bodog online sportsbook).
1. NFL: Indianapolis at San Diego (Saturday, 8:00 p.m.)
Both these teams looked pretty shaky to start the season, but the Colts (12-4 SU, 8-7-1 ATS) won their last nine in a row at 5-3-1 ATS, while the Chargers (8-8 SU, 7-8-1 ATS) rattled off four straight at 3-1 ATS to steal the AFC West title from Denver. Indianapolis was able to rest its starters for most of the team’s 23-0 blanking of the equally uncaring Titans (-3). The Chargers didn’t have the same luxury; that might cost them this week, as RB LaDanian Tomlinson told NBC after beating the Broncos that he suffered a strained abdominal muscle.
2. NCAAF: Utah vs. Alabama (Friday, 1:00 p.m.)
The Sugar Bowl features the lone surviving undefeated team in the FBS, the 12-0 Utes (7-3-1 ATS). They meet a Crimson Tide club (12-1 SU, 9-4 ATS) that was undefeated until the season finale against Florida. The Utes are getting 10 points at the Superdome in front of what should be a partisan crowd of Tide supporters. However, this is a very good Utah squad with a stud QB in Brian Johnson (24 TDs, nine INTs) and exquisite special teams. The Utes padded their resume this year with victories over Oregon State, BYU and TCU.
3. NFL: Philadelphia at Minnesota (Sunday, 4:30 p.m.)
The Vikings (10-6 SU, 6-10 ATS) don’t do anything the easy way. They grounded out a 20-19 victory over the Giants (+7) to claim the NFC North title on the final day. Now they have to deal with the Eagles (9-6-1 SU, 10-6 ATS), who steamrolled over Dallas 44-6 to earn a Wild Card and cash in as 2-point home faves. The Philadelphia defense returned two fumble recoveries for touchdowns, picked off Tony Romo once and messed up his ribs for good measure. Minnesota has the fourth-worst pass protection in the league with 43 sacks allowed – one fewer than the Eagles.
4. NBA: Boston at N.Y. Knicks (Sunday, 6:00 p.m.)
Boston’s 19-game winning streak came crashing to a thud on the West Coast with losses to the Lakers (-2) and the Warriors (+11). But the Celtics let out their frustrations in a 108-63 revolt against the Kings (+12.5). The C’s remain the top team in the NBA at 28-4 (18-14 ATS), while the Knicks have fallen into their familiar position in the Atlantic basement at 11-18 (15-14 ATS). Blame for their current six-game losing streak is falling on New York’s long-term vision to clear salary cap room for a potential LeBron James signing in 2010. The Knicks are 4-12 SU (but 9-7 ATS) since dealing Zach Randolph to the Clippers.
5. NCAAB: No. 11 Michigan State at No. 23 Minnesota (Wednesday, 12:00 p.m.)
The Spartans are 9-2 SU and 4-4 ATS to start the season strong on the AP poll, but Ken Pomeroy’s advanced stats tell a different tale. The leading stathead in college hoops has Michigan State ranked No. 42 in Division I, with the No. 76-ranked defense. Pomeroy has the undefeated Golden Gophers (11-0 SU, 4-2-1 ATS) even lower at No. 48 overall, dragged down by the No. 79 defense in the nation. The Spartans have played the tougher schedule up to this point, with the two losses coming to Maryland (+7.5) and North Carolina (-10).
Honorable Mentions
NFL: Baltimore at Miami (Sunday, 1:00 p.m.)
NCAAF: Oregon State vs. Pittsburgh (Wednesday, 2:00 p.m.)
NBA: Miami at Orlando (Friday, 7:00 p.m.)
NCAAB: No. 18 Villanova at Marquette (Thursday, 2:30 p.m.)
NHL: Boston at Pittsburgh (Tuesday, 7:30 p.m.)
MMA: Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic vs. Hong Man Choi, K-1 Premium Dynamite!! (Wednesday, PPV at 2:00 a.m. from Japan)
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December 30th, 2008
Who says we need a college football playoff system? Thanks to millions of dollars in corporate sponsorship, we have two new bowl games to bet on this year, bringing the total to 34. That’s more than double what any namby-pamby eight-team elimination format would provide.
This football feast comes at just the right time. The softest lines come at the start of the season and at bowl time, when teams from different conferences clash. The lines are even softer in the five major bowl games as the betting public floods the market with cash. We’ll get to those five games in a moment. First, let’s consider the merits of some of these lesser bowl matchups.
The minor bowl games are extra-special betting occasions because they feature teams from the mid-major and low major conferences. The GMAC Bowl between Ball State (12-1 SU, 9-3 ATS) of the MAC and Tulsa (10-3 SU, 7-5 ATS) is chock-full of betting angles and should be a hoot to watch, as well. These are two of the most prolific offenses in the nation, operating in relative obscurity and ripe for the plucking.
Handicapping gets even better when a mid-major is paired up against a team from the BCS conferences. Underdogs have historically done well in bowl games, although there was a market correction last year at 8-24 SU and 14-17-1 ATS. The most compelling matchups from a betting standpoint involve mid-major underdogs with something to prove against major-conference clubs who were looking for a higher-profile bowl game and are too disappointed to be angry about it.
The Las Vegas Bowl is a typical example. This game usually pits the top team in the Mountain West against the No. 4 seed from the Pac-10; over the past seven years, the Mountain West team is 6-1 SU and ATS. This year’s BYU-Arizona matchup is different – BYU is actually the No. 3 seed in the MWC, and Arizona is going bowling for the first time in a decade. The usual motivations are essentially reversed.
The Hawaii Bowl is supposed to match the WAC with the Pac-10 as of 2006, but this year we get Hawaii vs. Notre Dame – still a case of small program vs. big program. However, the juiciest trend coming out of this bowl is the 6-1 mark the over has produced during the past seven seasons. Playing at Aloha Stadium in Honolulu almost guarantees ideal conditions for a high score, and the Warriors (still pass-happy under first-year coach Greg McMackin) can also point at the 10-4-1 ATS record home teams have put up in bowl games at their actual homes.
Popular online sportsbook Bodog will have lines on all 34 bowls, with live betting already scheduled for 31 of those contests – including all five of the BCS bowls. The money spends the same no matter which game you bet on, but these are the five most important games of the season, so let’s dive right in and have a look (all times Eastern; for current lines, visit sports.bodoglife.com).
Rose Bowl: No. 6 Penn State vs. No. 5 USC
Rose Bowl, Pasadena, Calif.
Jan. 1, 4:30 p.m., ABC
Penn State: 11-1 SU, 7-3-1 ATS, Over 7-4
USC: 11-1 SU, 6-6 ATS, Under 8-3-1
If this is the Rose Bowl, it must be the USC Trojans. They’ve played at the Grandaddy of Them All four of the last five years, going 3-1 SU and ATS. The lone setback was against Vince Young and the Texas Longhorns three years ago for the national championship.
Pete Carroll’s Trojans have won seven straight Pac-10 titles and two national titles since he took over as coach in 2001. This year’s team is ranked No. 5 by the BCS and the AP; quarterback Mark Sanchez (30 TDs, 10 INTs) is already an improvement over John David Booty and posted a higher passer rating (159.1) than 2004 Heisman winner Matt Leinart (156.5).
Joe Paterno’s Nittany Lions made an even bigger upgrade at QB, replacing Anthony Morelli (19 TDs, 10 INTs last year) with Daryll Clark (17 TDs, four INTs). The Lions arguably have the better offense in this matchup, but like USC were shut out of consideration for the national title game – the BCS has Penn State all the way down at No. 8. This is an undervalued football club.
Orange Bowl: No. 12 Cincinnati vs. No. 21 Virginia Tech
Dolphin Stadium, Miami
Jan. 1, 8:30 p.m., FOX
Cincinnati: 11-2 SU, 6-6 ATS, Over 7-5
Virginia Tech: 9-4 SU, 5-7 ATS, Under 7-5
These are the two stepsisters invited to the ball. The Hokies got an automatic berth as ACC champions, and although the conference failed to produce a national title contender, Virginia Tech had to run the gauntlet against some very good clubs to get here. The Hokies had the No. 5-ranked strength of schedule in the nation this year; the Big East champion Bearcats clock in at No. 32.
Both these teams bring strong defenses and pedestrian offenses to Miami, although Cincinnati is fueled by the passing attack of QB Tony Pike (18 TDs, seven INTs), while Virginia Tech feeds off the rushing of Darren Evans (4.3 yards per carry) and the scrambling of QB Tyrod Taylor (5.2 yards). The Hokies also like to use QB Sean Glennon as a pocket-passing option, which gives them the kind of flexibility the last two champions from Florida and LSU enjoyed. The Bearcats have a decided edge in special teams that should come to the foreground in a defense-dominated game.
College bowl betting in the Bodog Sportsbook.
Sugar Bowl: No. 7 Utah vs. No. 4 Alabama
Louisiana Superdome, New Orleans
Jan. 2, 8:00 p.m., FOX
Utah: 12-0 SU, 7-3-1 ATS, Over 9-2
Alabama: 12-1 SU, 9-4 ATS, Under 9-4
Last year’s Sugar Bowl didn’t fit the usual underdog motif – Hawaii was a one-trick offensive pony, and Georgia played angry after not getting a spot in the BCS championship. This year’s BCS buster from Utah is a much more dangerous team. The Utes beat Oregon State and Michigan as well as TCU and BYU, but with the No. 110-ranked strength of schedule, it remains to be seen whether Utah can hang with the big boys.
Alabama also had a surprisingly easy time in the SEC, beating up on the crestfallen West Division before running into the champions of the East, the Florida Gators. That’s where the party ended for the Crimson Tide; that one game vaulted their strength of schedule from No. 68 in the nation to No. 23. Utah will be one of the toughest teams Alabama has faced this season. Covering a double-digit spread will be difficult in what should be another defensive matchup, with the Utes holding an even bigger advantage in special teams than Cincinnati has in the Orange Bowl.
Fiesta Bowl: No. 10 Ohio State vs. No. 3 Texas
University of Phoenix Stadium, Glendale, Ariz.
Jan. 5, 8:00 p.m., FOX
Ohio State: 10-2 SU, 5-6 ATS, Under 6-5
Texas: 11-1 SU, 9-3 ATS, Over 6-6
The college football nation is suffering from Buckeye fatigue. They were embarrassed two years in a row at the national championship game, and losses to USC and Penn State were supposed to keep Ohio State out of the BCS bowl picture. But they got in anyway ahead of higher-ranked teams from Texas Tech and Boise State. Texas, meanwhile, could do nothing but watch while the Oklahoma Sooners cruised to the title game despite losing the Red River Shootout to the Longhorns.
The trap here would be to dismiss Ohio State as overvalued. Losing 35-3 at USC was bad, but that was with Todd Boeckman at QB. He was promptly replaced by freshman Terrelle Pryor (12 TDs, four INTs); his 152.1 passer rating was superior to Boeckman’ 148.9 campaign in 2007. OSU also didn’t have top rusher Chris “Beanie” Wells (5.7 yards per carry) against the Trojans. With Pryor and Wells together, Ohio State was 7-1 SU and 5-3 ATS. That still might not be enough to beat mighty Texas, but all OSU supporters need is the cover.
BCS National Championship Game: No. 1 Florida vs. No. 2 Oklahoma
Dolphin Stadium, Miami
Jan. 8, 8:00 p.m., FOX
Florida: 12-1 SU, 10-2 ATS, Over 8-4
Oklahoma: 12-1 SU, 10-2 ATS, Over 11-1
The Sooners actually came out No. 1 in the BCS rankings, but they’re the underdogs in this matchup. Florida is 9-0 SU and 8-0 ATS since losing 31-30 to Ole Miss as 23-point home faves. The Rebs turned out to be a whole lot better than advertised – they’re going to the Cotton Bowl to face Texas Tech. Florida beat each of its next nine opponents (and its first three) by double digits, including the previously unbeaten Crimson Tide in the SEC title game.
Oklahoma has had some lousy major bowl games in recent memory:
2008 Fiesta Bowl: West Virginia 48, OU (-8) 28
2007 Fiesta Bowl: Boise State 43, OU (-7) 42 in OT
2005 Orange Bowl: USC 55, OU (+1) 10
2004 Sugar Bowl: LSU 21, OU (-6.5) 14
You have to go back to the 2003 Rose Bowl win over Washington State – the first Rose Bowl win in team history – before you find some good news for the Sooners. The missing season from that list ended with a Holiday Bowl win over Oregon that was later wiped out due to NCAA violations, then reinstated.
What can OU do for an encore? The Sooners might have the best offense in the nation – yes, even better than Florida’s – with Heisman hopeful Sam Bradford (48 TDs, six INTs) at the helm. The Gators respond with better defense and special teams, although casual fans only identify Florida with reigning Heisman winner and continuing candidate Tim Tebow (28 TDs passing, 12 TDs rushing, two INTs). Points should be harder to come by for both these men than they’re used to.
>>Compare the top three online sportsbooks for US sports betting here at BookieLabRat.com.
December 20th, 2008
Here’s the best betting action this week according to the crew at popular online sportsbook Bodog. For more on Bodog check out the latest Bodog Sportsbook reviews at BookieLabRat.com and GoonersGuide.com.
Okay, college football fans. Recess is over; time to get back to work. The 2008-09 bowl season starts this Saturday with four games, and while this foursome may feature some of the lightweights on the bowl scene (will there be a second St. Petersburg Bowl?), we’ve got at least two games that promise to be both entertaining and potentially lucrative. The first bowl down the runway kicks off this week’s Top 5 list (all times Eastern; for current lines, visit Bodog Sportsbook).
1. NCAAF: Navy vs. Wake Forest (Saturday, 11:00 a.m.)
The inaugural EagleBank Bowl is compelling for two reasons. It’s the first game on the schedule, which makes it the New Hampshire of the bowl season. And it’s a very interesting matchup between the Midshipmen running attack and the Demon Deacons defense. They’ll be playing at RFK Memorial in Washington, D.C., where the weather forecast calls for temperatures in the low 40s with a 25-percent chance of rain. The under is 7-4 for each team. Wake Forest is a 3-point chalk (even money) despite losing 24-17 to Navy in Week 5 as a 17-point home favorite.
2. NFL: Pittsburgh at Tennessee (Sunday, 1:00 p.m.)
This is not a recording. Pittsburgh (11-3 SU, 8-6 ATS) was at it again last week, mounting a late comeback to upset the Ravens 13-9 as 3-point road dogs. The Steelers are now in a position to steal the top seed in the AFC from the Titans (12-2 SU, 11-3 ATS). Tennessee is coming off a 13-12 loss at Houston (+3) and will be without the services of both Albert Haynesworth (sprained MCL) and Kyle Vanden Bosch (groin) from the defensive line. The Titans were 0-3 SU and ATS last year when Haynesworth was injured.
NFL betting in the Bodog Sportsbook.
3. NCAAF: No. 17 Brigham Young vs. Arizona (Saturday, 8:00 p.m.)
The Mountain West has two teams who deserve more attention than they’re getting. BYU is not one of them. The Cougars are in the AP rankings at 10-2, but they’ve covered only once in their last eight games, and they were spanked on the road by both Utah (-6.5) and TCU (-1.5). The College Football News ranks BYU’s season performance No. 30 in the FBS with Arizona at No. 51; that presumably leaves the ‘Cats (7-5 SU and ATS) as a value pick for their first bowl game in 10 years. They’re 3-point puppies at –105 juice.
4. NBA: San Antonio at New Orleans (Wednesday, 9:30 p.m.)
These are two of the hottest teams in the NBA. The Spurs (15-8 SU, 12-11 ATS) have won six in a row and 10 of their last 12 (at 8-4 ATS) after a very slow start, while the Hornets (13-7 SU, 9-10-1 ATS) are 8-2 in their last 10 games at 7-3 ATS. An emphasis on 3-point shooting has helped both teams; New Orleans is No. 1 in the league at 40.6 percent from long range, while San Antonio is second at 39.7 percent. Both teams are in the middle of the pack in perimeter defense. On the injury front, Tyson Chandler (stiff neck) has missed two games and is listed as day-to-day.
NBA odds in the Bodog Sportsbook.
5. NCAAB: No. 2 Connecticut vs. No. 8 Gonzaga (Saturday, 4:00 p.m.)
Gonzaga (7-1 SU, 5-2 ATS) has dropped the cash twice in a row after losing 69-64 at Arizona (+6). Saturday’s big date with UConn (8-0 SU, 2-2 ATS) should be an even tougher test for the ‘Zags. The Huskies beat Miami-Florida (+4) and Wisconsin (+5.5) by double digits to take the Paradise Jam preseason tournament. But the rest of UConn’s schedule has been pretty light up to this point, while the Bulldogs (winners of the Hall of Fame Showcase tourney) have loaded up on major programs to strengthen their March Madness resume. Ken Pomeroy’s advanced rankings have Gonzaga at No. 3 and UConn at No. 10 out of the 344 Division I clubs.
Honorable Mentions
NFL: Carolina at N.Y. Giants (Sunday, 8:30 p.m.)
NCAAF: Memphis vs. South Florida (Saturday, 4:30 p.m.)
NBA: Phoenix at Portland (Thursday, 10:30 p.m.)
NCAAB: No. 7 Xavier vs. No. 6 Duke (Saturday, 2:00 p.m.)
NHL: Philadelphia at Montreal (Thursday, 7:00 p.m.)
Boxing: Nikolai Valuev vs. Evander Holyfield, WBA heavyweight title (Saturday, 3:00 p.m.)
December 17th, 2008
Handicappers have to wear many hats to do a good job: athlete, statistician, doctor, lawyer, critic. These days, a background in labor relations would be handy.
The NFL Players Association says the New York Giants violated the collective bargaining agreement when they suspended WR Plaxico Burress for the remainder of the season and docked him a week’s wages. The Giants were also supposed to pay Burress $1 million this week as part of his signing bonus. He inked a five-year extension this offseason totalling $35 million, but New York can reportedly recoup $23 million by cutting ties with Burress.
In this case, the union’s grievance won’t be heard until after the season – unlike the court injunction that blocked the suspensions of six players last week in the StarCaps scandal. That includes three members of the New Orleans Saints, who kick off our Top 3 NFL betting games for Week 15.
For current NFL lines, check out the Bodog Sportsbook.
New Orleans at Chicago
Soldier Field, Chicago
Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET, NFL Network
15% chance of rain/snow, 30 degrees, 15 mph winds
New Orleans: 7-6 SU, 9-4 ATS, Over 8-4-1
Chicago: 7-6 SU, 6-6-1 ATS, Under 8-5
The three Saints in question are RB Deuce McAllister, DE Charles Grant (on injured reserve) and DE Will Smith. McAllister was a non-factor in last week’s 24-21 win over Atlanta (+3); Smith was involved in six tackles as the Saints held Atlanta to 99 yards rushing. But Smith’s presence wasn’t enough to keep Matt Ryan from passing for 315 yards. The Saints are No. 25 in the league with 20 TD throws and 3,006 passing yards allowed on the season.
Fortunately for the Saints, Chicago’s offense isn’t tailored to take advantage. The Bears are No. 23 in the league with 5.7 yards per pass attempt; their offensive forte is Matt Forte, the rookie RB with 4.0 yards per carry and 10 of Chicago’s 34 TDs on the season. Devin Hester has yet to reach the end zone this year and has been taken off kick-return duty in favor of Danieal Manning. A Hester punt return TD was key to last year’s 33-25 win by the Bears (+1).
Pittsburgh at Baltimore
M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, Md.
Sunday, 4:15 p.m. ET, CBS
10% chance of rain, 40 degrees
Pittsburgh: 10-3 SU, 7-6 ATS, Over 7-6
Baltimore: 9-4 SU, 10-3 ATS, Over 8-4-1
The Steelers defense keeps saving the day. Pittsburgh scored two TDs in the final 2:04 to beat Dallas (+4) 20-13 last week, the final major coming on a Deshea Townsend interception return. Pittsburgh’s offense is tied with Baltimore’s near the bottom of the league at 4.8 yards per play – the winless Lions are next at 4.7 yards. But the Ravens are actually more efficient moving the ball. They’re No. 13 in the NFL with 248 first downs, while Pittsburgh languishes at No. 22 with 229.
The difference is power running. The Steelers have absorbed myriad injuries in the backfield, but none of their running options would be mistaken for a bruiser. Baltimore’s Le’Ron McClain, on the other hand, is a 260-pound fullback enjoying his first year as a feature ball-carrier. His relatively small 3.7 yards per carry disguises Baltimore’s efficiency in short-yardage situations – the Ravens are fourth in the league in this department, while the Steelers are No. 24.
NFL playoff odds in the Bodog Sportsbook.
N.Y. Giants at Dallas
Texas Stadium, Dallas
Sunday, 8:15 p.m. ET, NBC
10% chance of rain, 60 degrees, 10 mph winds
New York: 11-2 SU, 10-3 ATS, Over 7-5-1
Dallas: 8-5 SU, 6-7 ATS, Over 7-6
Perhaps Big Blue could use a dose of Plax after all. The Giants’ 7-0 SU and ATS streak ended with a thud last week against the Eagles (+6.5), who left the Meadowlands with a 20-14 victory. This was a near-total shutdown by the Philly defense. The Giants managed only 211 total yards, and there were 15 seconds left in the game before the offense finally scored. Domenik Hixon had three catches for 30 yards in Burress’ absence.
Philadelphia is fourth in the NFL in defense at 4.5 yards allowed per play, one spot better than New York at 4.8 yards. The Cowboys are mere percentage points behind the G-Men in that category; if you take out the three Brad Johnson games, Dallas looks a lot more competitive at 7-3 SU and 5-5 ATS. That includes Week 9, when the Giants cruised to a 35-14 win as 9.5-point home faves with Tony Romo and his broken pinkie finger on the sidelines. Dallas is 3-1 SU and 2-1-1 ATS against the Giants with Romo as the starter.
>>For more on Bodog Sport read the latest Bodog Sportsbook Review – or suss out how Bodog compares to all online sportsbooks we recommend for US-based bettors
December 11th, 2008
The 19th Century English author Anthony Trollope was onto something when he said he judged men by their actions with other men, not by what they said to the heavens. Trollope would have made an excellent football handicapper. The following 10 stats and factoids for this weekend’s slate are based on actual events, 100-percent free of bluster.
Miami vs. Buffalo: The average temperature in Buffalo last December was 30.5 degrees Fahrenheit. But Sunday’s game is being played at the Rogers Centre in Toronto, and the retractable roof is closed and locked now that baseball season is over. It will be a climate-controlled 72 degrees inside the former SkyDome.
Buffalo vs. Ball State: The over is 20-8 in Buffalo’s last 28 games against MAC opponents. The over is also 3-0 in the last three meetings between the Bulls and Cardinals. Quarterbacks Drew Willy and Nate Davis have combined for 46 touchdown throws and just 12 interceptions this year.
St. Louis at Arizona: Kurt Warner is 4-2 SU and 3-3 ATS against his former employers. Warner is an MVP candidate this year with a 99.3 passer rating; the man who replaced him in St. Louis, Marc Bulger, has a career-low 67.1 rating playing behind a banged-up offensive line.
Navy vs. Army: Army is playing just its second game in four weeks. The Black Knights had a bye in Week 12 and Week 14. Navy’s last game was on Nov. 25, when the Midshipmen (+3) bounced Northern Illinois 16-0. They had Weeks 11 and 13 off.
Minnesota at Detroit: The Lions defense is last in the league at 6.3 yards allowed per play. Detroit is also worst in points allowed (393), rushing touchdowns allowed (22) and interceptions (two). Minnesota is sixth in the NFL with 83 first downs rushing.
Check out the NFL betting in the Bodog Sportsbook.
Western Kentucky at Florida International: FIU is ranked No. 115 out of 120 FBS teams in time of possession at 26:51 per game. WKU is No. 89 at 29:03. The Golden Panthers have allowed opponents to complete 44 percent of their third-down opportunities compared to 43.1 percent for the Hilltoppers.
Cleveland at Tennessee: Ken Dorsey was a two-time Heisman Trophy finalist for the Miami Hurricanes. He’s made one brief appearance in each of the last three seasons for the Browns, going a combined 0-for-4 with a sack and a pick. Dorsey starts this week for the injured Brady Quinn and Derek Anderson.
USC at UCLA: The Trojans have allowed a total of 39 points in their last seven games. That includes three shutouts and two games (against Notre Dame and Cal) with a lone field goal. UCLA is No. 111 in the nation in offense with 294.5 yards per game.
New England at Seattle: Rosevelt Colvin owns two UPS stores in his hometown of Indianapolis. But he’s swapping brown for Patriots blue, red, silver and white. New England signed its former star linebacker and two-time Super Bowl winner to shore up an injury-plagued defense. Colvin was cut by the Houston Texans in training camp this year.
Alabama vs. Florida: Gators RB/WR Percy Harvin was a high-school champion in track & field. The Virginia native and Heisman candidate set state records in three sprinting events, plus the long jump and triple-jump. Harvin (sprained ankle) is reportedly a game-time decision for this SEC title matchup.
Check out the latest NCAA football odds in the Bodog Sportsbook.
December 5th, 2008
Into NFL Betting? Know what you should be taking into account if the weather’s crap? Check out this posting on the latest betting tips and advice from the team at Bodog Sport.
While it’s important to get a handle on every factor affecting your bet, there’s no angle square NFL bettors overvalue more than weather. This is especially true when the season starts getting long in the tooth as snow, freezing rain, and high winds start changing the way the game is played on the field.
Don’t get me wrong – weather does matter – it’s just you shouldn’t overreact and rush to the window every time a flurry might fall on Ben Roethlisberger’s helmet. Oddsmakers and sharps are both expecting you to overreact so they can take advantage of the public money that inevitably moves the line or total in one direction or another for no good reason.
Make sure to handicap the game the same way you normally would. Don’t automatically take the under or bet on the “cold weather team” just because there’s a chance of snow, especially if you notice the number is already on the move.
Get an actual weather forecast from a local news station or a meteorologist. Suzy Kolber and Sal Paolantonio aren’t your regular Brick Tamland; the mainstream sports media often plays up cold weather to create a narrative prior to kickoff. Tune in to Channel 6 for an unbiased view of the weather unless you live in Wisconsin, where the weather report will most definitely focus on the Packers game.
Don’t overestimate the effect winter weather has on the offensive side of the football while completely ignoring what it means for the defense. Public bettors often make this error, forgetting it’s the defense that has to react to the offense. Defenses that have the most trouble in winter weather are units that like to confuse the offense by blitzing often and running multiple quasi-zone formations. Those teams live and die by their ability to adjust on the fly to what the offense is doing.
NFL betting in the Bodog Sportsbook.
That having been said, it’s still about what the offense can do. A common misconception is NFL teams have no choice but to pound the run in inclement winter weather, so a good running game is the key to making money for bettors. While that’s true if you’re looking at an outright blizzard, teams with offensive balance have better success in winter weather because of their ability to keep the defense honest.
Defensive strategy during cold weather is to take something away from the offense, preferably the run. Teams that go either way are more dangerous because they disallow the defense from focusing on either the run or the pass. This is basic stuff, but it’s even more of a factor when players are losing their footing and the wind is blowing passes down left and right.
Balance on offense isn’t the only thing on which to hang your hat. You have to couple that approach with a team that is actually profitable. Teams fitting the mold (balanced and profitable) this season are the New York Giants, Tennessee Titans, and Washington Redskins: All figure to be solid plays when Mother Nature rears its winter head.
Looking at stadiums most affected by cold weather, there are no hard and fast trends that deliver a magic bullet. That’s because the role of the oddsmaker isn’t to accurately reflect the differences between opponents in the spread or total, it’s to accurately assess public perception of those differences. If squares think bad weather means the game is going under, that’s where the number is headed.
You could fund an entire college research department figuring out the cold weather trends in NFL stadiums. Taking a small extrapolation of games played in December or later in Green Bay, Cleveland, and Buffalo since 2005, nothing jumps out except the over trend. The Packers, Browns, and Bills are a combined 17-6 O/U during those circumstances over the time period, meaning there’s at least some benefit to avoid pounding the under at all costs when cold weather strikes.
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November 28th, 2008
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