NCAA College Football Handicapping
by DAVE COKIN
AN EARLY LOOK AT FOOTBALL TOTALS
While everyone this time of the year is looking at previews for football teams, let’s take a deeper look from a handicapping perspective. It’s a great time to examine team strengths and weaknesses and get an idea whether a team might provide value “over” or “under” the total. Not in terms of season wins, but on each game they play, even starting with the opener. Here are a few teams that fall into an over or under category based on their relative returning merits.
Kentucky: Rich Brooks begins his fifth season at Kentucky, and while they are not the football powerhouse that the basketball program is, there is enormous excitement around the gridiron for 2007.
Kentucky (8-5) is off a bowl season where they upset Clemson, 28-20, as a +11 dog, with an electric offense. Senior QB Andre Woodson ran the SEC’s best passing attack, with 276 yards passing per game, as he completed 63% of his passes for 3,515 yards, 31 TDs, 7 INTs. The offense is loaded, with senior tailback Rafael Little, and Woodson’s top targets, led by senior WR Keenan Burton (1,036 yards, 12 TDs).
But the defense has been porous, giving up 184 yards on the ground per game. They are reminiscent of North Carolina when they had QB Darius Durant and an awful defense. That UNC squad went over the total often and so might this Kentucky team.
LSU: Under the total teams feature a dominant defense but a suspect offense, particularly one losing its top quarterback. LSU fits that to a tee. The Tigers allowed just 7 points per game at home last season and return 8 defensive starters.
The front line is awesome, anchored by All-America DT Glenn Dorsey. They would have been the favorite to win the national title, but the offense lost QB JaMarcus Russell early to the NFL, the No. 1 overall selection. QBs Matt Flynn and sophomore Ryan Perrilloux will battle for the job, so you can imagine some 13-10 LSU games.
All of which makes the Tigers a potential “under the total” type team.
Virginia Tech: The Hokies are similar to LSU. The defense was No. 1 in the country in 2006 allowing just 219 total yards and 11 points per game. Eight starters are back on defense. But the passing offense is suspect, with junior QB Sean Glennon (11 TDs, 11 INTs), who completed just 56% of his passes. They were 8-4 under the total with all that defense.
Oh, and guess who they play September 8? At LSU! Wonder if the total on that game will get bet down to 30.
Air Force: We think of the Falcons as all-running, all the time, but head coach Fisher DeBerry retired. New coach Troy Calhoun takes over and he was the offensive coordinator for the Houston Texans and brings in a pro-style attack. He has a capable QB to work with in senior Shaun Carney, a four-year starter. But this defense has been awful, allowing 31, 31 and 25 ppg the last three seasons. The secondary was torched by Tennessee, Colorado State and even UNLV.
Air Force is 20-13 over the total the last 3 years and may continue to be with their new pro-style offense and a suspect ‘D’.
Washington State: Last season the Cougars scored more points than their opponents with a strong offense that averaged 24.6 points and 259 yards passing. 7 starters return on offense, led by QB Alex Brink (19 TDs, 10 INTs), who hit 60% of his passes. But the defense was poor which is why Head Coach Bill Doba will also take over as defensive coordinator.
Washington State was 8-4 over the total last fall and could be a good over team again.
———————–
You can read more from Dave Cokin – and get all his sprts betting pick and previews at his site :
Add comment July 14th, 2007