Archive for February, 2007
Wenger is being hailed around the world for the exciting young team he is fielding in this season’s Carling Cup and says “The Carling Cup is almost like looking into the future. That’s what I use it for.
“I look at the Carling Cup team to see where we are going as a Club. Do we have enough to fight for the Premiership and Champions League? Or do we have to buy because they aren’t good enough? This year they have shown me they are good enough.
“To work well in the future, a club like ours should only have to buy the exceptional players. We should have a good enough squad to fight for the rest.
“I didn’t buy anybody in the transfer window because there’s no point bringing average players in.”
However, according to Wenger, such a policy does require strength from the Club’s manager and its directors.
“The problem is you have to combine two things,” he said. “You have to install enough in the club to go with that policy. If it’s done in the short term and the manager changes every two years then why should he go for a policy of five years?
“Secondly, you have to be strong enough to play the young players when there’s a big demand. You have to stick to it. If you want to know how good your players are then you have to play them.”
>>Visit us at BookieLabRat.com
February 4th, 2007
Professional football in Italy has been indefinitely suspended after a police officer was killed during serious trouble at the Sicilian derby between Catania and Palermo.
According to reports, he was struck in the face by a small explosive while attempting to deal with fighting outside the stadium. He was taken to hospital but died from his injuries. The policeman, named as Filippo Raciti, was 38.
The Italian football federation (FIGC) held an emergency meeting on Friday evening, and commissioner Luca Pancalli then announced an immediate suspension of football.
“I have demanded a stop to all activity of football in Italy,” Pancalli said in a statement. “Enough is enough. “It’s a situation that I cannot speak of. To lose your life at 38 is incredible. This is not a sport.”
Speaking at a hastily-arranged press conference in Rome, Pancalli said the suspension would remain in place indefinitely. “The football tournaments will remain suspended until we solve the violence in our football,” he said. “It’s unacceptable that such incidents happen in a country like Italy.”
Italy’s national team was due to play Romania in Siena on Wednesday but that game – and the under-21 fixture against Belgium in Chieti on Tuesday – will not go ahead as things stand.
February 3rd, 2007
Super Bowl Propositions – The Achilles’ Heel of Square Books
According to USA Today, half of all Americans will wager on the Super Bowl, as a result, 90% of bets on the game are made by novice gamblers. Aware of the opportunity to attract new customers, sportsbooks understandably focus an enormous amount of energy on the biggest game on the sports schedule. The most successful approach to excite these armchair bettors is to offer propositions that promise potentially big returns for a very modest outlay, and those that focus on seemingly random or humorous events.
The problem that books face with this approach is that often just one odds maker is pricing the lines based on variables that he has far less reliable data on than he is used to. These propositions can be the easiest for an educated player to beat and sportsbooks routinely lose money on them. Propositions are a loss-leader for the betting world to tempt new bettors who will end up losing money on one of the more lucrative areas for the bookie. To protect themselves in this unusually vulnerable situation, sportsbooks build in inordinately large margins – typically using a 30 or 40-cent line with low wagering limits – yet will often consider a break-even result a success.
When you wager on a proposition, it’s typically your opinion versus one odds maker. If you know more than that one odds maker, you are going to get the best of it. For Super Bowl XLI, Pinnacle Sportsbook is offering over 200 props with many priced to world beating 15-cent margins, a significant savings versus the 30 to 40-cent lines at other online books.
With this many wagering options and the public betting like mad, it’s not uncommon to see prop lines move on public money alone. At Pinnacle Sportsbetting, there are several professional prop players that will take a contrarian view on our props and bet almost any one that moves more than 20 cents (betting towards the original price). Therefore, the ‘Pinnacle Lean’ is useful for measuring market prices on props as well as on sides and totals. For example, PinnacleSports.com is offering the following prop: ‘Who will score the first TD?’ at Colts -145/Bears +130. This suggests that the no-vig price based on our 15-cent line is -137.5/+137.5. Therefore, you can ‘play the lean’ if you find another book with the Yes at -136.5, or the No at +138.5.
The biggest mistake that players and odds makers make when evaluating props is in not understanding the difference between the median and the mean (average). Most players would assume that the average (total/frequency) is an accurate measure, but the correct way to analyze many of these types of props is to use the median. Looking at a list of theoretical score lengths in ascending order, the median is the middle number:
1, 1, 17, 20 (median), 39, 47, 59
If you assumed before Sunday’s game that these seven scores would occur, and assessed the prop ‘Will the first score be more than 24.5 yards?’ you’d price the ‘No’ knowing the under would hit four out of seven times, making the no-vig price on the ‘No’ -133 or (-4/3*100). Whereas if you took the average it would give you another answer (26.3), and lead you to the very different and misleading conclusion that the over is more likely.
Although this concept is simple and rather obvious, it will pay dividends to anyone who is prepared to spend time calculating the median. The median is useful on all types of props – from ‘length of first rush’ to the ‘longest/shortest’ props (where you use the median result from games for the whole season). In fact, there are two straightforward ways to accurately price these types of props.
First, you’ll want to use as much data as possible. Since the Colts have played 19 games and Chicago has played 18 games, this gives you a much better estimate of a fair mid-point. Secondly, you should also consider adjusting your data for the opponent, perhaps ignoring some data for games that aren’t similar to their Super Bowl opponent. Sharp bettors might only use data where both teams were playing under similar spread scenarios (though this might produce a small sample for the Bears).
Good Luck.
RELATED LINKS :
PinnacleSports are one of the sharpest priced bookmakers online. If you’re betting on the Superbowl then you should check them out.
(Sorry – but due to the US Government having a brain spasm and passing the UIGEA banning online SportsBetting – PinnacleSports does not accept American players)
February 2nd, 2007
Top Irish bookie PaddyPower has once again come to the party with some entertaining bets to add intrigue to the weekend’s Premiership action. If you like high value bets like accumulators, scorecasts and special bets these may be just what you’re after!
1. Accumulator Special Offer at PaddyPower bookmaker
Back one of Paddy Power’s “Special Weekend Premiership Accumulators” this weekend and if all your selections win except for one then Paddy Power will give you a free bet to the same value on 1st Goalscorer for the N.Ireland v Wales international match on Tuesday 6th February. (Max Value for free bet is €75/£50 per customer/bet.)
Here’s an example of an Accumulator on offer this weekend: Liverpool, Chelsea, Middlesboro and Tottenham all to win at 55/1 (56.00)
2. What about a Cash Back offer for those who like scorecasts or 1st/last scorer bets?
Paddy’s Latest Money Back Special is called PRIDE OF AFRICA !
Middlesbrough v Arsenal
If Kolo Toure scores in 90 minutes Paddy Power will refund all losing 1st / last goalscorer, correct score & scorecast single bets on the match.
Max refund €300/£200 per customer/bet
PS: If you’ve not got an account at PaddyPower yet (and we can think of no valid reason why you wouldn’t have – unless you’re a US resident) then you’re also eligible for GBP25 in free bets if you use the link below.
>>Visit PaddyPower bookmaker
>>Suss out PaddyPower by reading our detailed bookmaker review
February 2nd, 2007
Top punter at UK and European bookmaker bet365, Nigel Ridgeway, has just shared his thoughts on the Premiership games for the weekend.
We’re not so sure about some of his picks… what do you think?
In the Merseyside derby, Liverpool v Everton he’s picking Red’s to Gain Revenge (Everton beat them 3-0 earlier in the season).
While the odds on offer look OK at:
Liverpool 4/7 or 2.57
Draw 5/2 or 3.50
Everton 9/2 or 5.50)
We agree that the 11/10 (2.10) on ‘over’ 2.5 goals looks better value. The same bet would have copped in six of the last eight meetings, while Liverpool are the third highest-scoring home side in the league this season.
Nigel’s pick of a draw as the best bet between Boro and Arsenal (at 23/10 or 3.30) sounds good value but will be fairly hard to swallow for Arsenal fans.
Nigel is recommending an accumulator on all five of the bottom clubs’ opponents to win this weekend. It pays out a juicy £240.63 for a tenner. Could be tempting.
Good luck!
Mike
>>Heres a link to bet365 (there’s a good join bonus available if you’re a new customer).
February 1st, 2007
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